Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Wed, 30 Sept 2026 · 22 positions on 9 matches across 8 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem Free Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions22all with a result
won / lost13 / 9positions won / lost
avg odds2.08mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+5.26units, one a position
ROI, the day+23.9%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 9 of 9 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Seychellesv
Sri LankaInternational Friendly Games1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.06 units
Goals · away team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.06 avg → +1.06 · ROI +106.5%- Bet365over 1.52.20+10.6%7.4%won +1.20first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- BetMGM UKover 1.51.93−3.0%11.3%won +0.93first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 1.93
Eritreav
South AfricaAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.33 units
Cards · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.33 avg → +1.33 · ROI +133.3%- Betliveunder 1.52.35+70.7%14.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Crocobetunder 1.52.35+70.7%14.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Liderbetunder 1.52.30+67.0%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
Lithuaniav
AndorraInternational Friendly Games4 positions · 0 of 4 won · −4.00 units
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 15.52.10+54.9%14.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Goal kicks · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 7.51.95+5.1%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Goals · away team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.96 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Bet365over 0.52.10+17.9%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- BetMGM UKover 0.51.82+2.2%11.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.75 → last pre-kickoff 1.82
Offsides · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 2.51.80+28.3%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
AS RomavBarcelona (Women)UEFA Women's Champions League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.24 units
Cards · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.17 avg → +1.17 · ROI +117.0%- Superbetunder 1.52.17+58.4%9.8%won +1.17first captured 2.17 → last pre-kickoff 2.17
Corners · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.07 avg → +1.07 · ROI +107.0%- Superbetunder 2.52.07+47.9%8.2%won +1.07first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 2.07
BK Häcken FFvJuventus (Women)UEFA Women's Champions League3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.05 units
Offsides · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 3.52.35+42.0%14.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 9.52.00+22.1%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Throw-ins · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Crocobetover 39.51.95+22.5%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Paris FC (Women)vArsenal (Women)UEFA Women's Champions League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.15 units
Shots on target · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Crocobetover 9.51.85−4.2%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Throw-ins · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 41.51.95+10.8%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Benfica (Women)vFC Bayern München (Women)UEFA Women's Champions League3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.98 units
Cards · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → +1.02 · ROI +102.0%- Superbetunder 1.52.02+26.4%9.4%won +1.02first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 2.02
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.50 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 10.52.50+26.5%14.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
Throw-ins · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 37.51.95+26.0%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
New York Red BullsvSt.Louis CityMLS4 positions · 4 of 4 won · +4.43 units
Corners · home team · under
7 of 7 books won · 1 unit @ 2.03 avg → +1.03 · ROI +103.4%- Paddy Powerunder 4.52.25+28.1%8.1%won +1.25first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Betliveunder 4.52.05+16.7%11.3%won +1.05first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Superbetunder 4.52.02+15.0%8.0%won +1.02first captured 2.17 → last pre-kickoff 2.02
- Crocobetunder 4.52.00+13.9%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Liderbetunder 4.52.00+13.9%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.17 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- BetMGM UKunder 4.51.96+11.6%9.2%won +0.96first captured 2.23 → last pre-kickoff 1.96
- Kambiunder 4.51.96+11.6%9.2%won +0.96first captured 2.23 → last pre-kickoff 1.96
Goals · away team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.75 avg → +1.75 · ROI +175.0%- Bet365over 2.52.75+38.2%7.8%won +1.75first captured 2.63 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
Offsides · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Crocobetover 3.51.80−5.9%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
- Liderbetover 3.51.80−5.9%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots on target · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Crocobetover 9.51.85−1.8%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.65 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Argentinav
BoliviaInternational Friendly Games2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.36 units
Cards · away team · under
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.26 avg → +1.26 · ROI +126.4%- Superbetunder 1.52.37+24.0%10.7%won +1.37first captured 2.37 → last pre-kickoff 2.37
- Betliveunder 1.52.25+17.7%13.4%won +1.25first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Kambiunder 1.52.25+17.7%9.4%won +1.25first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Liderbetunder 1.52.25+17.7%13.4%won +1.25first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Crocobetunder 1.52.20+15.1%14.4%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Fouls · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.0%- Betliveunder 12.52.10+49.8%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetunder 12.52.10+49.8%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Liderbetunder 12.52.10+49.8%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Board record · all time
settled positions2,2889 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost1,154 / 1,134positions won / lost
avg odds2.07mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+68.04units, one a position
measured ROI+3.0%2,288 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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