Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Wed, 23 Sept 2026 · 16 positions on 7 matches across 7 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem Free Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions16all with a result
won / lost9 / 7positions won / lost
avg odds2.09mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+3.49units, one a position
ROI, the day+21.8%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 7 of 7 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Azerbaijanv
TajikistanInternational Friendly Games1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.88 units
Corners · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → +0.88 · ROI +88.3%- Betliveunder 5.51.90+14.7%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Liderbetunder 5.51.90+14.7%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Crocobetunder 5.51.85+11.7%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Servette FC Chênois FémininvOlympique Lyonnais (Women)UEFA Women's Champions League3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.37 units
Cards · away team · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.50 avg → +1.50 · ROI +150.0%- Betliveunder 0.52.50+34.0%14.1%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetunder 0.52.50+34.0%14.1%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
Corners · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → +0.87 · ROI +87.0%- Superbetunder 1.51.87+28.3%8.1%won +0.87first captured 1.87 → last pre-kickoff 1.87
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 9.52.10+92.3%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetunder 8.52.10+79.5%14.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Oud-Heverlee Leuven (Women)vAS RomaUEFA Women's Champions League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.88 units
Shots on target · match total · over
2 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.38 avg → +1.38 · ROI +138.3%- Betliveover 9.52.05+45.6%13.3%won +1.05first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Crocobetover 9.51.85+31.4%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetover 11.53.25+71.3%11.4%lost −1.00first captured 3.25 → last pre-kickoff 3.25
Shots on target · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.50 avg → +1.50 · ROI +150.0%- Betliveover 4.52.60+35.4%13.7%won +1.60first captured 2.60 → last pre-kickoff 2.60
- Liderbetover 4.52.55+32.8%12.2%won +1.55first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Crocobetover 4.52.35+22.3%14.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Barcelona (Women)vParis FC (Women)UEFA Women's Champions League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.60 units
Cards · home team · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.65 avg → +1.65 · ROI +165.0%- Betliveunder 0.52.80+45.6%13.8%won +1.80first captured 2.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.80
- Crocobetunder 0.52.50+30.0%14.1%won +1.50first captured 2.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
Goal kicks · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Betliveunder 12.51.95+1.9%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Chelsea FCvAustria Wien (Women)UEFA Women's Champions League2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.32 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 8.52.50+32.4%14.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Betliveunder 8.52.45+29.7%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Liderbetunder 9.52.00+28.9%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots on target · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 7.51.80+9.4%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
- Liderbetover 7.51.80+9.4%12.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Arubav
Antigua and BarbudaCONCACAF Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Corners · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 4.51.80+4.5%12.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Seattle Sounders FCvReal Salt LakeMLS5 positions · 2 of 5 won · −1.25 units
Corners · home team · under
0 of 7 books won · 1 unit @ 2.03 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Kambiunder 5.52.18+11.2%9.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.18 → last pre-kickoff 2.18
- Bet365under 5.52.10+7.2%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Superbetunder 5.52.07+5.6%7.8%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.07
- Paddy Powerunder 5.52.00+2.1%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Betliveunder 5.51.95−0.5%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetunder 5.51.95−0.5%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetunder 5.51.95−0.5%10.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Superbetunder 12.51.90+7.2%8.2%won +0.90first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Offsides · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Betliveunder 1.51.85−2.4%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 9.51.90+4.1%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Shots on target · home team · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.94 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 5.52.05+5.9%8.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.12 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Liderbetover 5.51.95+0.8%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Kambiover 5.51.92−0.8%10.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Betliveover 5.51.85−4.4%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Board record · all time
settled positions2,2889 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost1,154 / 1,134positions won / lost
avg odds2.07mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+68.04units, one a position
measured ROI+3.0%2,288 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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