Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Sat, 5 Sept 2026 · 48 positions on 16 matches across 1 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem Free Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions48all with a result
won / lost21 / 27positions won / lost
avg odds2.15mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit−3.70units, one a position
ROI, the day−7.7%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 16 of 16 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
FiorentinavTorinoSerie A2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.60 units
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.65 avg → +1.65 · ROI +165.0%- Crocobetunder 13.52.65+40.6%11.8%won +1.65first captured 2.65 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
Throw-ins · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Crocobetover 33.51.95+0.9%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
SC Paderborn 07vSC FreiburgBundesliga7 positions · 0 of 7 won · −7.00 units
Cards · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 1.52.30+20.0%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
Cards · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 1.52.10+8.4%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Corners · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 4.51.85−7.3%11.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 9.52.00+6.6%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.75 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 9.52.75+58.2%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
Shots on target · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.45 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 4.52.45+22.6%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
Throw-ins · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 37.51.95+2.2%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
SV Werder BremenvRB LeipzigBundesliga1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.90 units
Cards · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Crocobetunder 1.51.90−2.0%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Borussia M'gladbachvSV 07 ElversbergBundesliga3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.85 units
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +120.0%- Crocobetunder 9.52.20+14.2%12.1%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Shots on target · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.45 avg → +1.45 · ROI +145.0%- Crocobetover 10.52.45+26.6%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
Shots on target · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +120.0%- Crocobetover 5.52.20+28.5%12.1%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Bayer 04 Leverkusenv1. FC Union BerlinBundesliga5 positions · 3 of 5 won · +1.90 units
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 11.51.95+17.7%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Goal kicks · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Crocobetunder 6.51.95−0.2%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Offsides · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.75 avg → +1.75 · ROI +175.0%- Crocobetover 3.52.75+39.7%11.5%won +1.75first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 10.51.85−2.1%11.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Throw-ins · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +120.0%- Crocobetover 34.52.20+28.7%12.1%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
TSG HoffenheimvBorussia DortmundBundesliga2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.85 units
Offsides · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.0%- Crocobetunder 2.52.00+33.6%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots on target · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Crocobetover 9.51.85−7.4%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Athletic ClubvAtlético MadridLaLiga1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.90 units
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Crocobetunder 11.51.90−0.4%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
RC LensvLorientLigue 15 positions · 2 of 5 won · −1.25 units
Cards · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 1.51.85+2.3%11.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Cards · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Crocobetunder 1.51.85−5.9%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Corners · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 5.52.20+10.6%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 9.52.10+7.0%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Shots on target · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Crocobetover 5.51.90+9.2%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
FC Schalke 04vFC Bayern MünchenBundesliga2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 8.52.30+27.9%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 11.52.00+17.2%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
NicevLe MansLigue 15 positions · 1 of 5 won · −2.70 units
Cards · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 1.52.20+28.2%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Cards · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 1.52.85+48.1%12.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.85 → last pre-kickoff 2.85
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → +1.30 · ROI +130.0%- Crocobetunder 13.52.30+101.2%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
Offsides · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 1.52.00+21.0%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 8.51.95+0.4%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
RomavAtalantaSerie A1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.90 units
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Crocobetunder 12.51.90+18.5%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Le HavrevStade BrestoisLigue 12 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.30 units
Offsides · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → +1.30 · ROI +130.0%- Crocobetunder 1.52.30+18.6%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
Throw-ins · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 40.51.95+2.3%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
VillarrealvDeportivo La CoruñaLaLiga5 positions · 1 of 5 won · −3.10 units
Cards · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 1.51.95+13.8%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Cards · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Crocobetunder 2.51.90+42.8%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 10.52.95+74.7%12.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.95
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 9.52.30+34.4%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
Shots on target · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.45 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 6.52.45+28.2%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
Red Bull BragantinovBahiaBrasileirão Série A2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.15 units
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 11.52.10+29.9%14.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Shots on target · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Crocobetover 9.51.85−0.8%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
São PaulovAtlético MineiroBrasileirão Série A2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.20 units
Cards · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Crocobetunder 2.51.80−8.8%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Offsides · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 2.51.80+9.0%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
FluminensevVasco da GamaBrasileirão Série A3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.50 units
Cards · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.60 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 2.52.60+53.1%13.7%lost −1.00first captured 2.60 → last pre-kickoff 2.60
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 11.52.00+6.2%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Goal kicks · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.50 avg → +1.50 · ROI +150.0%- Crocobetunder 7.52.50+28.8%14.1%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
Board record · all time
settled positions2,2889 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost1,154 / 1,134positions won / lost
avg odds2.07mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+68.04units, one a position
measured ROI+3.0%2,288 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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