Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Mon, 28 Sept 2026 · 35 positions on 14 matches across 8 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem Free Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions35all with a result
won / lost24 / 11positions won / lost
avg odds2.08mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+15.09units, one a position
ROI, the day+43.1%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 14 of 14 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
South Koreav
UruguayInternational Friendly Games1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Corners · home team · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.91 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 4.51.92+9.2%8.3%lost −1.00first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Bet365under 4.51.91+8.6%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Central African Republicv
Burkina FasoAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Cards · home team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.28 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 1.52.35+22.1%14.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Liderbetunder 1.52.30+19.5%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Crocobetunder 1.52.20+14.3%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Corners · home team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 2.51.95+2.4%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetunder 2.51.95+2.4%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetunder 2.51.95+2.4%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Zimbabwev
DR CongoAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.27 units
Cards · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.22 avg → +1.22 · ROI +121.7%- Betliveunder 1.52.25+22.8%13.4%won +1.25first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Crocobetunder 1.52.20+20.1%14.4%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Liderbetunder 1.52.20+20.1%12.1%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Corners · home team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 3.51.85+11.8%12.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Crocobetunder 3.51.85+11.8%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetunder 3.51.85+11.8%12.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Goals · away team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Bet365over 1.52.10+8.6%7.6%won +1.10first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- BetMGM UKover 1.52.00+3.4%9.5%won +1.00first captured 1.98 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Equatorial Guineav
Sierra LeoneAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.52 units
Cards · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.94 avg → +0.94 · ROI +94.0%- Superbetunder 1.52.02+20.1%9.7%won +1.02first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 2.02
- Crocobetunder 1.51.95+15.9%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Betliveunder 1.51.85+10.0%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Corners · home team · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.58 avg → +1.58 · ROI +157.5%- Betliveunder 3.52.65+46.9%12.4%won +1.65first captured 2.65 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Crocobetunder 3.52.50+38.5%14.1%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
Georgiav
UkraineUEFA Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.07 units
Cards · away team · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 2.52.10+14.1%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Superbetunder 2.52.00+8.7%8.1%lost −1.00first captured 1.78 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Goal kicks · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → +0.93 · ROI +93.3%- Crocobetunder 6.51.95+4.0%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetunder 6.51.95+4.0%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Betliveunder 6.51.90+1.3%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Armeniav
MontenegroUEFA Nations League3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.40 units
Corners · home team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +92.0%- Betliveunder 4.51.95+26.9%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetunder 4.51.95+26.9%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetunder 4.51.90+23.6%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Superbetunder 4.51.88+22.4%8.1%won +0.88first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 1.88
Goal kicks · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Crocobetunder 7.52.10+28.2%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Liderbetunder 7.52.10+28.2%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 7.51.95+19.1%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Goals · away team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.43 avg → +1.43 · ROI +142.8%- BetMGM UKover 1.52.48+41.2%8.8%won +1.48first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.48
- Bet365over 1.52.38+35.2%7.3%won +1.38first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.38
Latviav
CyprusUEFA Nations League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.78 units
Goal kicks · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → +0.93 · ROI +93.3%- Crocobetunder 7.51.95+12.0%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetunder 7.51.95+12.0%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Betliveunder 7.51.90+9.1%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Offsides · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Betliveunder 1.51.85+5.8%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Crocobetunder 1.51.85+5.8%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetunder 1.51.85+5.8%12.9%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
LeganésvCD CastellónLaLiga 23 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.90 units
Goal kicks · away team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.12 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 6.52.20+13.1%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Crocobetunder 6.52.10+8.0%14.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 6.52.05+5.4%13.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
Goals · away team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.0%- Bet365over 1.52.10+23.3%7.6%won +1.10first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 8.51.85+7.3%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Romaniav
Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League5 positions · 5 of 5 won · +5.28 units
Cards · away team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → +1.08 · ROI +108.0%- Superbetunder 2.52.25+25.6%7.7%won +1.25first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Crocobetunder 2.52.10+17.2%12.1%won +1.10first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 2.52.05+14.4%13.3%won +1.05first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Kambiunder 2.51.92+7.2%9.9%won +0.92first captured 1.77 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
Corners · home team · under
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → +0.87 · ROI +86.8%- Superbetunder 4.51.92+0.1%6.7%won +0.92first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Crocobetunder 4.51.90−0.9%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Paddy Powerunder 4.51.87−2.5%9.0%won +0.87first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.87
- Betliveunder 4.51.85−3.5%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetunder 4.51.80−6.1%12.7%won +0.80first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Fouls · away team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.21 avg → +1.21 · ROI +121.2%- Betliveunder 13.52.40+33.0%12.1%won +1.40first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Liderbetunder 13.52.25+24.6%11.1%won +1.25first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Crocobetunder 13.52.20+21.9%12.1%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Superbetunder 13.52.00+10.8%8.1%won +1.00first captured 1.82 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Goal kicks · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.22 avg → +1.22 · ROI +121.7%- Betliveunder 7.52.40+23.5%12.1%won +1.40first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Liderbetunder 7.52.40+23.5%13.1%won +1.40first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Crocobetunder 8.51.85+19.6%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Saves · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Crocobetunder 5.51.90+4.6%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Belgiumv
FranceUEFA Nations League3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.43 units
Corners · home team · under
8 of 8 books won · 1 unit @ 2.28 avg → +1.28 · ROI +127.6%- Paddy Powerunder 3.52.40+21.0%8.3%won +1.40first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Kambiunder 3.52.33+17.4%10.0%won +1.33first captured 2.38 → last pre-kickoff 2.33
- Betliveunder 3.52.30+15.9%12.0%won +1.30first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Liderbetunder 3.52.30+15.9%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- BetMGM UKunder 3.52.28+14.9%9.7%won +1.28first captured 2.33 → last pre-kickoff 2.28
- Bet365under 3.52.20+10.9%7.4%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Crocobetunder 3.52.20+10.9%12.1%won +1.20first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Superbetunder 3.52.20+10.9%6.8%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Fouls · away team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → +1.15 · ROI +115.0%- Betliveunder 10.52.40+30.9%12.1%won +1.40first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Crocobetunder 10.52.30+25.5%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Liderbetunder 11.52.00+29.6%12.5%won +1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Superbetunder 10.51.90+3.6%7.6%won +0.90first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Goal kicks · away team · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.34 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 5.52.65+34.6%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Crocobetunder 5.52.45+24.5%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Betliveunder 5.52.15+9.2%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
- Superbetunder 6.52.12+40.2%8.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 2.12
Türkiyev
ItalyUEFA Nations League4 positions · 2 of 4 won · −0.30 units
Corners · home team · under
0 of 6 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Bet365under 4.52.00+4.3%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Superbetunder 4.52.00+4.3%6.8%lost −1.00first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Paddy Powerunder 4.51.91−0.4%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
- Betliveunder 4.51.90−0.9%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Liderbetunder 4.51.90−0.9%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Crocobetunder 4.51.85−3.5%11.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.42 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 11.52.45+24.2%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Liderbetunder 11.52.45+24.2%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Betliveunder 11.52.35+19.1%12.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Goal kicks · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Liderbetunder 7.51.85+18.6%12.9%won +0.85first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Shots on target · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Crocobetover 8.51.90−4.4%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Betliveover 8.51.85−6.9%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetover 8.51.80−9.4%12.7%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Swedenv
PolandUEFA Nations League3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.15 units
Fouls · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → +1.08 · ROI +108.3%- Liderbetunder 12.52.15+15.0%13.2%won +1.15first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
- Crocobetunder 12.52.10+12.4%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 12.52.00+7.0%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Goal kicks · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 6.51.97+2.8%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.97
Goal kicks · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.07 avg → +1.07 · ROI +107.0%- Superbetunder 7.52.07+3.8%8.5%won +1.07first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 2.07
Guadeloupev
BarbadosCONCACAF Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.62 units
Goals · away team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.63 avg → +1.62 · ROI +162.5%- Bet365over 1.52.75+46.2%7.8%won +1.75first captured 3.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- BetMGM UKover 1.52.50+32.9%11.4%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
Saint Luciav
BermudaCONCACAF Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.91 units
Goals · away team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.91 avg → +0.91 · ROI +91.5%- BetMGM UKover 1.51.92+17.0%11.6%won +0.92first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Bet365over 1.51.91+16.3%7.9%won +0.91first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Board record · all time
settled positions2,2889 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost1,154 / 1,134positions won / lost
avg odds2.07mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+68.04units, one a position
measured ROI+3.0%2,288 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
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- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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