Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Mon, 14 Sept 2026 · 47 positions on 14 matches across 6 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem Free Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions47all with a result
won / lost31 / 16positions won / lost
avg odds2.06mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+17.85units, one a position
ROI, the day+38.0%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 14 of 14 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
ComovParmaSerie A3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.91 units
Fouls · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.45 avg → +1.45 · ROI +145.0%- Betliveunder 10.52.50+33.2%11.9%won +1.50
- Crocobetunder 10.52.45+30.6%12.2%won +1.45
- Liderbetunder 10.52.40+27.9%13.1%won +1.40
Offsides · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.63 avg → +1.63 · ROI +163.3%- Crocobetover 4.52.65+51.0%11.8%won +1.65
- Liderbetover 4.52.65+51.0%12.4%won +1.65
- Betliveover 4.52.60+48.1%12.0%won +1.60
Shots on target · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.82 avg → +0.83 · ROI +82.5%- Crocobetover 8.51.85−0.5%11.2%won +0.85
- Liderbetover 8.51.80−3.2%12.7%won +0.80
TorinovRomaSerie A2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Goal kicks · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 6.51.80−0.6%12.7%lost −1.00
Shots on target · home team · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- BetMGM UKover 3.52.65+35.9%11.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Superbetover 3.52.17+11.3%7.8%lost −1.00
- Crocobetover 3.52.10+7.7%12.1%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 3.52.05+5.1%13.3%lost −1.00
- Liderbetover 3.52.05+5.1%11.3%lost −1.00
Gaziantep FKvFenerbahçeTrendyol Süper Lig4 positions · 1 of 4 won · −2.15 units
Goal kicks · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Betliveunder 8.51.85−0.7%14.7%won +0.85
Offsides · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 3.52.10+11.1%14.3%lost −1.00
Shots on target · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 9.52.00+1.1%8.1%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 9.51.85−6.5%14.7%lost −1.00
Shots on target · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.98 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 3.52.15+34.3%8.6%lost −1.00
- Betliveover 3.51.80+12.4%14.4%lost −1.00
Rio AvevCF Estrela AmadoraLiga Portugal Betclic2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.90 units
Corners · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.82 avg → +0.82 · ROI +81.7%- Betliveunder 4.51.85+0.3%11.2%won +0.85
- Crocobetunder 4.51.80−2.4%14.4%won +0.80
- Liderbetunder 4.51.80−2.4%14.4%won +0.80
Fouls · away team · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → +1.08 · ROI +107.5%- Betliveunder 12.52.35+51.2%14.0%won +1.35
- Liderbetunder 13.51.80+33.0%12.7%won +0.80
Celta Vigo BvEibarLaLiga 23 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.19 units
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.98 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 11.52.10+22.9%14.3%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 11.51.85+8.3%14.7%lost −1.00
Shots on target · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.04 avg → +1.04 · ROI +103.5%- Superbetover 8.52.12+6.3%8.1%won +1.12
- Liderbetover 8.51.95−2.2%13.8%won +0.95
Throw-ins · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → +1.15 · ROI +115.0%- Liderbetover 35.52.25+16.0%13.4%won +1.25
- Betliveover 34.52.05+17.1%13.3%won +1.05
IntervUdineseSerie A6 positions · 6 of 6 won · +6.82 units
Fouls · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Betliveunder 11.52.15+24.7%13.2%won +1.15
- Liderbetunder 11.52.05+18.9%11.3%won +1.05
- Crocobetunder 11.51.95+13.1%11.9%won +0.95
Goal kicks · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.07 avg → +1.07 · ROI +106.7%- Crocobetunder 5.52.10+9.3%12.1%won +1.10
- Liderbetunder 5.52.10+9.3%12.1%won +1.10
- Betliveunder 5.52.00+4.1%12.5%won +1.00
Goal kicks · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → +1.02 · ROI +102.0%- Superbetunder 10.52.02+2.3%8.3%won +1.02
Saves · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +120.0%- Crocobetover 6.52.20+23.9%12.1%won +1.20
Shots on target · match total · over
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.19 avg → +1.19 · ROI +119.4%- Superbetover 10.52.47+27.9%8.1%won +1.47
- Liderbetover 10.52.35+21.7%11.5%won +1.35
- Betliveover 10.52.25+16.5%12.0%won +1.25
- Bet365over 9.52.00+27.6%7.9%won +1.00first captured 1.83 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetover 9.51.90+21.2%11.5%won +0.90
Shots on target · home team · over
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.29 avg → +1.29 · ROI +129.0%- Betliveover 7.52.40+20.8%12.1%won +1.40
- Liderbetover 7.52.40+20.8%13.1%won +1.40
- Superbetover 7.52.35+18.3%9.2%won +1.35
- Crocobetover 7.52.30+15.8%12.4%won +1.30
- Bet365over 6.52.00+29.3%7.9%won +1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
VillarrealvReal BetisLaLiga9 positions · 7 of 9 won · +6.64 units
Cards · home team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → +1.27 · ROI +126.8%- Superbetunder 1.52.42+35.4%8.4%won +1.42
- Crocobetunder 1.52.30+28.7%12.4%won +1.30
- Betliveunder 1.52.25+25.9%12.0%won +1.25
- Liderbetunder 1.52.10+17.5%12.1%won +1.10
Cards · away team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.42 avg → +1.42 · ROI +142.5%- Superbetunder 1.52.50+33.3%8.0%won +1.50
- Crocobetunder 1.52.45+30.6%12.2%won +1.45
- Liderbetunder 1.52.40+27.9%13.1%won +1.40
- Betliveunder 1.52.35+25.3%12.0%won +1.35
Fouls · away team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.34 avg → +1.34 · ROI +134.3%- Crocobetunder 9.53.30+66.6%12.3%won +2.30
- Betliveunder 11.52.10+54.0%12.1%won +1.10
- Superbetunder 11.52.02+48.2%8.3%won +1.02
- Liderbetunder 11.51.95+43.0%13.8%won +0.95
Goal kicks · home team · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.04 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 6.52.10+9.3%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 6.52.05+6.7%11.3%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 6.52.00+4.1%12.5%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 6.52.00+4.1%7.8%lost −1.00
Goal kicks · away team · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.94 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 7.52.00+7.3%12.5%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 7.51.97+5.7%8.2%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 7.51.90+1.9%11.5%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 7.51.90+1.9%13.2%lost −1.00
Goals · away team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.47 avg → +1.47 · ROI +146.7%- Bet365over 1.52.50+32.8%6.7%won +1.50first captured 2.63 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- BetMGM UKover 1.52.50+32.8%8.0%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetover 1.52.40+27.5%9.7%won +1.40first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
Offsides · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Crocobetover 3.51.95+13.2%11.9%won +0.95
- Liderbetover 3.51.90+10.3%13.2%won +0.90
- Betliveover 3.51.85+7.4%11.2%won +0.85
Shots on target · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.0%- Bet365over 9.52.10+49.1%7.6%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveover 9.52.00+42.0%12.5%won +1.00
- Crocobetover 9.51.95+38.5%11.9%won +0.95
- Liderbetover 9.51.95+38.5%13.8%won +0.95
Shots on target · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.24 avg → +1.24 · ROI +124.3%- Betliveover 5.52.40+40.6%12.1%won +1.40
- Crocobetover 5.52.30+34.8%12.4%won +1.30
- Liderbetover 5.52.30+34.8%12.4%won +1.30
- Superbetover 5.51.97+15.4%8.2%won +0.97
Leeds UnitedvNewcastle UnitedPremier League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.12 units
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 11.52.10+22.9%12.1%lost −1.00
- Betliveunder 11.52.00+17.1%12.5%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 11.51.90+11.2%13.2%lost −1.00
Goal kicks · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → +0.88 · ROI +88.3%- Crocobetunder 7.51.90+17.7%11.5%won +0.90
- Liderbetunder 7.51.90+17.7%13.2%won +0.90
- Betliveunder 7.51.85+14.6%11.2%won +0.85
MoreirensevMarítimoLiga Portugal Betclic3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.20 units
Cards · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Betliveunder 2.51.80+6.6%14.4%won +0.80
Cards · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 2.51.80+6.5%14.4%lost −1.00
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 13.52.10+18.2%14.3%lost −1.00
Sporting BragavEstoril PraiaLiga Portugal Betclic5 positions · 2 of 5 won · −1.26 units
Cards · away team · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 2.51.95+15.1%13.8%lost −1.00
- Superbetunder 2.51.92+13.4%9.5%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 2.51.80+6.3%14.4%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 2.51.80+6.3%14.4%lost −1.00
Corners · home team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.94 avg → +0.94 · ROI +94.3%- Betliveunder 5.51.95+17.9%11.9%won +0.95
- Crocobetunder 5.51.95+17.9%13.8%won +0.95
- Liderbetunder 5.51.95+17.9%13.8%won +0.95
- Superbetunder 5.51.92+16.1%8.3%won +0.92
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.98 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 12.51.95+38.4%7.8%won +0.95
- Betliveunder 11.52.10+27.3%14.3%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 11.52.00+21.2%12.5%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 11.51.85+12.1%14.7%lost −1.00
Offsides · home team · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.98 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 1.52.00+37.8%12.5%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 1.51.95+34.4%13.8%lost −1.00
Shots on target · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Crocobetover 5.51.80−3.3%14.4%won +0.80
- Liderbetover 5.51.80−3.3%12.7%won +0.80
Deportivo RiestravLanúsLiga Profesional de Fútbol2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.05 units
Corners · home team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.38 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 3.52.40+27.5%12.1%lost −1.00
- Liderbetunder 3.52.40+27.5%13.1%lost −1.00
- Crocobetunder 3.52.35+24.9%14.0%lost −1.00
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Liderbetunder 11.51.95+19.8%13.8%won +0.95
BanfieldvBarracas CentralLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.00 units
Offsides · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.0%- Liderbetunder 2.52.00+21.0%14.5%won +1.00
BahiavRemoBrasileirão Série A4 positions · 3 of 4 won · +2.23 units
Cards · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.0%- Superbetunder 2.52.10+21.3%9.3%won +1.10
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 12.51.95+18.9%10.5%won +0.95
- Liderbetunder 11.52.20+10.2%14.4%lost −1.00
Shots on target · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Superbetover 9.52.00+22.0%8.1%won +1.00
- Liderbetover 9.51.80+9.8%14.4%won +0.80
Shots on target · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.23 avg → +1.23 · ROI +122.5%- Superbetover 6.52.25+20.6%8.5%won +1.25
- Liderbetover 6.52.20+17.9%14.4%won +1.20
Instituto De CórdobavEstudiantes de Río CuartoLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.95 units
Corners · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Betliveunder 5.51.95+9.4%11.9%won +0.95
- Crocobetunder 5.51.95+9.4%13.8%won +0.95
- Liderbetunder 5.51.95+9.4%13.8%won +0.95
Board record · all time
settled positions2,2889 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost1,154 / 1,134positions won / lost
avg odds2.07mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+68.04units, one a position
measured ROI+3.0%2,288 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks is public. A subscription opens upcoming match details and bookmaker prices on StatsGem VIP Picks.