Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Thu, 24 Sept 2026 · 50 positions on 19 matches across 8 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem Free Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions50all with a result
won / lost30 / 20positions won / lost
avg odds2.05mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+12.06units, one a position
ROI, the day+24.1%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 19 of 19 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Japanv
UruguayInternational Friendly Games2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.05 units
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Crocobetunder 11.51.95−1.5%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Offsides · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 2.51.85+23.8%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
South Koreav
EcuadorInternational Friendly Games2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 12.51.85+4.3%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Throw-ins · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 31.51.95+10.8%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Namibiav
Congo RepublicAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Corners · home team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 4.51.95+20.5%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Betliveunder 4.51.90+17.4%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Liderbetunder 4.51.90+17.4%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Libyav
BotswanaAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.4 positions · 2 of 4 won · −0.13 units
Cards · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.86 avg → +0.86 · ROI +85.7%- Superbetunder 1.51.97+29.4%9.6%won +0.97first captured 1.97 → last pre-kickoff 1.97
- Crocobetunder 1.51.80+18.2%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
- Liderbetunder 1.51.80+18.2%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Cards · away team · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.06 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 1.52.20+41.0%10.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Betliveunder 1.52.05+31.4%13.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Crocobetunder 1.52.00+28.1%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Liderbetunder 1.52.00+28.1%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Corners · home team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 4.52.00+22.2%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetunder 4.52.00+22.2%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Liderbetunder 4.52.00+22.2%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Goals · away team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.01 avg → +1.01 · ROI +101.0%- BetMGM UKover 0.52.02+17.5%11.6%won +1.02first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 2.02
- Bet365over 0.52.00+16.4%7.9%won +1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
DR Congov
Equatorial GuineaAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.5 positions · 3 of 5 won · +1.15 units
Cards · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +91.7%- Superbetunder 1.52.10+38.0%9.7%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetunder 1.51.85+21.6%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Betliveunder 1.51.80+18.3%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Cards · away team · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 1.52.35+37.8%14.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Crocobetunder 1.52.20+29.0%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Corners · home team · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.98 avg → +0.98 · ROI +97.5%- Betliveunder 5.52.00+31.4%12.5%won +1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetunder 5.51.95+28.1%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → +1.25 · ROI +125.0%- Betliveunder 13.52.25+96.5%13.4%won +1.25first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
Offsides · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 1.52.25+15.5%13.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
Mauritaniav
Central African RepublicAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +2.91 units
Cards · home team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → +0.88 · ROI +87.5%- Superbetunder 1.52.02+29.6%9.4%won +1.02first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 2.02
- Liderbetunder 1.51.88+20.6%9.4%won +0.88first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 1.88
- Betliveunder 1.51.80+15.5%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
- Crocobetunder 1.51.80+15.5%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Corners · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.13 avg → +1.13 · ROI +113.3%- Liderbetunder 4.52.20+19.8%8.7%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Betliveunder 4.52.10+14.4%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetunder 4.52.10+14.4%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Goals · away team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- BetMGM UKover 0.51.90+14.3%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Andorrav
MaltaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.94 units
Corners · home team · under
6 of 6 books won · 1 unit @ 1.89 avg → +0.89 · ROI +89.2%- Crocobetunder 3.51.95+7.1%11.9%won +0.95first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Superbetunder 3.51.92+5.5%8.3%won +0.92first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Betliveunder 3.51.90+4.4%11.5%won +0.90first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Liderbetunder 3.51.90+4.4%11.5%won +0.90first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- BetMGM UKunder 3.51.84+1.1%9.9%won +0.84first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.84
- Kambiunder 3.51.84+1.1%9.9%won +0.84first captured 1.86 → last pre-kickoff 1.84
Goal kicks · away team · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Crocobetunder 6.52.10+18.5%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 6.52.00+12.8%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Netherlandsv
GermanyUEFA Nations League3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.80 units
Corners · home team · under
0 of 6 books won · 1 unit @ 2.07 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 4.52.20+15.0%8.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Betliveunder 4.52.10+9.8%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Paddy Powerunder 4.52.10+9.8%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Bet365under 4.52.00+4.5%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.91 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetunder 4.52.00+4.5%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Superbetunder 4.52.00+4.5%6.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Fouls · away team · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.34 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 10.52.65+52.0%11.8%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Betliveunder 10.52.55+46.3%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Liderbetunder 11.52.20+48.4%9.6%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Superbetunder 11.51.95+31.5%7.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Saves · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +119.7%- Liderbetover 6.52.34+22.6%9.9%won +1.34first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.34
- Crocobetover 6.52.20+15.2%12.1%won +1.20first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Betliveover 6.52.05+7.4%13.3%won +1.05first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
Kosovov
IrelandUEFA Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.11 units
Corners · home team · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.89 avg → +0.89 · ROI +88.5%- Superbetunder 4.51.90+15.0%8.2%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Paddy Powerunder 4.51.87+13.2%9.0%won +0.87first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.87
Saves · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 5.51.85−4.6%11.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Norwayv
DenmarkUEFA Nations League4 positions · 4 of 4 won · +3.62 units
Corners · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Kambiunder 5.51.85+15.2%9.9%won +0.85first captured 1.70 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Fouls · away team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.0%- Crocobetunder 10.52.10+17.2%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Superbetunder 10.52.05+14.4%7.6%won +1.05first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Betliveunder 10.51.95+8.8%11.9%won +0.95first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetunder 10.51.90+6.0%9.1%won +0.90first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Goal kicks · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +92.0%- Superbetunder 6.51.92+3.4%8.3%won +0.92first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
Offsides · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Crocobetover 2.51.85+10.2%11.2%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Portugalv
WalesUEFA Nations League3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.13 units
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → +0.87 · ROI +87.0%- Superbetunder 10.51.87+6.5%7.5%won +0.87first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.87
Goal kicks · home team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.07 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 4.52.10+23.0%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Liderbetunder 4.52.10+23.0%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 4.52.00+17.1%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Goal kicks · away team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 10.51.95−0.6%8.1%lost −1.00first captured 1.87 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Austriav
IsraelUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.48 units
Goal kicks · home team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.48 avg → +1.48 · ROI +148.3%- Liderbetunder 4.52.55+34.8%9.6%won +1.55first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Betliveunder 4.52.45+29.5%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetunder 4.52.45+29.5%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
Liechtensteinv
LithuaniaUEFA Nations League3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.63 units
Goal kicks · home team · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.23 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 10.52.30+40.8%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Betliveunder 10.52.15+31.6%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
Shots on target · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 1.51.90+12.0%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Throw-ins · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.37 avg → +1.37 · ROI +136.7%- Betliveover 46.52.50+48.3%11.9%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Liderbetover 46.52.40+42.3%13.1%won +1.40first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Crocobetover 45.52.20+39.5%12.1%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Serbiav
GreeceUEFA Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.35 units
Goal kicks · away team · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → +1.35 · ROI +135.5%- Liderbetunder 6.52.55+32.8%12.2%won +1.55first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Betliveunder 6.52.45+27.5%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetunder 6.52.45+27.5%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Superbetunder 7.51.97+30.3%7.9%won +0.97first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 1.97
Throw-ins · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 35.51.95+6.5%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Sierra Leonev
ZimbabweAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.17 units
Cards · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +92.0%- Superbetunder 1.51.92+21.8%8.9%won +0.92first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
Cards · away team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 1.52.10+16.8%9.7%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 1.51.95+8.4%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetunder 1.51.95+8.4%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Corners · home team · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → +1.25 · ROI +125.0%- Betliveunder 3.52.30+17.9%12.0%won +1.30first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Crocobetunder 3.52.20+12.8%14.4%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Cameroonv
ComorosAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.76 units
Cards · home team · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 1.52.00+25.6%9.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetunder 1.51.80+13.0%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
- Liderbetunder 1.51.80+13.0%12.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Cards · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.42 avg → +1.42 · ROI +141.7%- Betliveunder 1.52.50+34.1%14.1%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Liderbetunder 1.52.40+28.8%13.1%won +1.40first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Crocobetunder 1.52.35+26.1%14.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Goals · away team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.34 avg → +1.34 · ROI +133.8%- Bet365over 0.52.38+25.9%7.3%won +1.38first captured 2.63 → last pre-kickoff 2.38
- BetMGM UKover 0.52.30+22.0%9.3%won +1.30first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
Tunisiav
UgandaAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.3 positions · 3 of 3 won · +3.45 units
Cards · away team · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → +1.27 · ROI +127.3%- Betliveunder 1.52.35+41.8%14.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Superbetunder 1.52.27+36.9%10.7%won +1.27first captured 2.27 → last pre-kickoff 2.27
- Crocobetunder 1.52.20+32.7%14.4%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
Fouls · away team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.0%- Betliveunder 12.52.10+64.3%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Goals · away team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → +1.08 · ROI +107.5%- Bet365over 0.52.10+16.1%7.6%won +1.10first captured 1.83 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- BetMGM UKover 0.52.05+13.3%9.0%won +1.05first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
Puerto Ricov
GuyanaCONCACAF Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.25 units
Corners · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → +1.25 · ROI +125.0%- Betliveunder 3.52.25+22.4%12.5%won +1.25first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
Goals · away team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Bet365over 1.52.20+22.1%7.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.63 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- BetMGM UKover 1.52.10+16.5%11.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.32 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Haitiv
Trinidad and TobagoCONCACAF Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.15 units
Cards · home team · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → +0.85 · ROI +85.0%- Betliveunder 1.51.85−4.2%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Corners · home team · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 5.51.90+8.3%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Board record · all time
settled positions2,2889 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost1,154 / 1,134positions won / lost
avg odds2.07mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+68.04units, one a position
measured ROI+3.0%2,288 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks is public. A subscription opens upcoming match details and bookmaker prices on StatsGem VIP Picks.