Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

11 Free0 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

11 picks shown with Crocobet prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

7 matches

10:45Sabah FKvBorussia DortmundUEFA Champions League1 pick· 0 active

Corners · Sabah FK total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

under 3.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.5517 Oct, 19:19

Current odds1.8620 Oct, 01:26

Odds down−0.69

Model chance at recommendation: 53.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +36.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +36.7%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.55
Current odds1.86
Odds down−0.69
Model chance53.6%EV+36.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV-4.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV-16.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV-14.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV-16.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV-4.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV-6.8%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:19: under 3.5 at 2.55 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00FC PortovPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League2 picks· 0 active

Corners · FC Porto total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

under 5.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2017 Oct, 19:19

Current odds1.9120 Oct, 01:19

Odds down−0.29

Model chance at recommendation: 63.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.58
Expected value at recommendation: +39.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 63.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +39.3%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.20
Current odds1.91
Odds down−0.29
Model chance63.3%EV+39.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV+5.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV-6.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV-0.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV-6.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV+2.0%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV+4.8%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:19: under 5.5 at 2.20 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · FC Porto total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

over 10.5

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8818 Oct, 13:00

Current odds1.9020 Oct, 01:19

Odds up+0.02

Model chance at recommendation: 60.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.66
Expected value at recommendation: +13.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.66. Expected value at recommendation: +13.7%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 62 settled picksand +7.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation1.88
Current odds1.90
Odds up+0.02
Model chance60.5%EV+13.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentover 10.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.3%EV+10.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentover 10.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.3%EV+4.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentover 10.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.3%EV+4.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 13:00: over 10.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00NapolivBodø/GlimtUEFA Champions League1 pick· 0 active

Corners · Napoli total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

under 5.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.5517 Oct, 19:20

Current odds1.9820 Oct, 01:27

Odds down−0.57

Model chance at recommendation: 56.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +43.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +43.7%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.55
Current odds1.98
Odds down−0.57
Model chance56.4%EV+43.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.7%EV-10.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.7%EV-16.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.7%EV-18.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.7%EV-16.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.7%EV-10.4%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.7%EV-11.7%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:20: under 5.5 at 2.55 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00Manchester CityvAEK AthensUEFA Champions League1 pick· 0 active

Corners · Manchester City total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

under 7.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1417 Oct, 19:20

Current odds1.8220 Oct, 01:27

Odds down−0.32

Model chance at recommendation: 50.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +7.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +7.5%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation2.14
Current odds1.82
Odds down−0.32
Model chance50.2%EV+7.5%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.4%EV+25.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.4%EV+23.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.4%EV+23.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.4%EV+19.7%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.4%EV+26.5%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:20: under 7.5 at 2.14 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00VfB StuttgartvAtlético MadridUEFA Champions League1 pick· 0 active

Corners · VfB Stuttgart total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

under 4.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3017 Oct, 19:19

Current odds1.8620 Oct, 01:27

Odds down−0.44

Model chance at recommendation: 55.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.81
Expected value at recommendation: +27.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.81. Expected value at recommendation: +27.7%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.30
Current odds1.86
Odds down−0.44
Model chance55.5%EV+27.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Currentunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV+0.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV-4.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV-6.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV-4.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV-1.7%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV+3.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:19: under 4.5 at 2.30 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00Paris Saint-GermainvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League4 picks· 0 active

Shots · match total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

over 32.5

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2018 Oct, 13:00

Current odds1.8020 Oct, 01:27

Odds down−0.40

Model chance at recommendation: 58.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +29.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +29.5%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 280 settled picksand +9.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 32.5
At recommendation2.20
Current odds1.80
Odds down−0.40
Model chance58.8%EV+29.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentover 32.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance22.1%EV-44.8%
15 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentover 32.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance22.1%EV-45.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiCurrentover 32.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.38
No saved recommendation
Model chance22.1%EV-47.4%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentover 32.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance22.1%EV-43.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 13:00: over 32.5 at 2.20 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

over 16.5

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9518 Oct, 15:01

Current odds1.8220 Oct, 01:27

Odds down−0.13

Model chance at recommendation: 67.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.49
Expected value at recommendation: +31.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 67.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +31.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 201 settled picksand +6.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 16.5
At recommendation1.95
Current odds1.82
Odds down−0.13
Model chance67.3%EV+31.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentover 16.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance21.7%EV-51.1%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentover 16.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance21.7%EV-52.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiCurrentover 16.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance21.7%EV-50.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentover 16.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance21.7%EV-50.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 15:01: over 16.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

over 12.5

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1218 Oct, 13:00

Current odds2.1220 Oct, 01:27

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 60.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +27.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +27.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 230 settled picksand +1.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation2.12
Current odds2.12
Unchanged
Model chance60.0%EV+27.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentover 12.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance34.6%EV-27.4%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentover 12.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance34.6%EV-24.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiCurrentover 12.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.38
No saved recommendation
Model chance34.6%EV-17.8%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentover 12.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance34.6%EV-24.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 13:00: over 12.5 at 2.12 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

over 6.5

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2318 Oct, 13:01

Current odds2.3820 Oct, 01:27

Odds up+0.15

Model chance at recommendation: 52.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.91
Expected value at recommendation: +16.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 52.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.91. Expected value at recommendation: +16.9%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 96 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.10
Current odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance52.4%EV+10.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.23
Current odds2.38
Odds up+0.15
Model chance52.4%EV+16.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentover 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance27.5%EV-40.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentover 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance27.5%EV-39.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentover 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance27.5%EV-39.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentover 6.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.17
No saved recommendation
Model chance27.5%EV-40.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 13:01: over 6.5 at 2.23 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

19:00FC JuárezvAtlante FCLiga MX, Apertura1 pick· 0 active

Goals · Atlante FC total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

over 1.5

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0018 Oct, 19:17

Current odds2.1020 Oct, 01:25

Odds up+0.10

Model chance at recommendation: 56.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +12.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +12.2%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 234 settled picksand +1.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Current odds2.10
Odds up+0.10
Model chance56.1%EV+12.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Current odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance56.1%EV+12.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Current odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance56.1%EV+12.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 19:17: over 1.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Selected day

Tue, 20 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

No settled results yet. 0 active suggestions across 7 listed matches.

All dates

Overall results

3,193 settled picks

One unit per pick at its recorded odds. Earlier estimated history is excluded. Results: 28 Sept 2026 – 19 Oct 2026.

ROI−1.1%

Profit−35.67 u

W / L1,537 / 1,656

Avg odds2.13

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.