Predictions
Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.
10 picks shown with BetMGM UK prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.
Board
Matches
GuingampvPau FCLigue 22 picks· 0 active
- Model chance at recommendation
- 55.5%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.81
- Expected value at recommendation
- +5.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 55.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.81. Expected value at recommendation: +5.9%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
Model chance55.5%EV+5.9%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.91Closing odds—1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetMGM UKClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance59.6%EV+1.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.711 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance59.6%EV-7.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.556 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance59.6%EV-10.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.503 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance59.6%EV+1.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.712 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance59.6%EV-10.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.506 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance59.6%EV+4.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.757 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 12 Oct, 18:18: over 3.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 50.6%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.98
- Expected value at recommendation
- +1.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 50.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
Model chance50.6%EV+1.3%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.00Closing odds—7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV+2.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.082 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV+3.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.1026 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-8.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-8.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV+2.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.084 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-8.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8513 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-3.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.956 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-0.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.023 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance49.3%EV-1.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.0014 bookmaker lines available.
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Recommendation record
Recorded 14 Oct, 22:00: under 2.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 22:05. The original pick remains in the results.
Stade de ReimsvDijonLigue 21 pick· 0 active
- Model chance at recommendation
- 57.0%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.76
- Expected value at recommendation
- +25.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.
Model chance at recommendation 57.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +25.3%.
The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
Model chance57.0%EV+25.3%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.20Closing odds—1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiAt recommendationover 3.5
Model chance57.0%EV+7.1%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.88Closing odds—1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetMGM UKClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance60.0%EV+10.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.851 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance60.0%EV+16.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.955 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance60.0%EV+16.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.953 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance60.0%EV+16.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.955 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
Model chance60.0%EV+28.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.157 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 12 Oct, 18:42: over 3.5 at 2.20 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.
SC HeerenveenvExcelsiorEredivisie1 pick· 0 active
- Model chance at recommendation
- 50.0%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 2.00
- Expected value at recommendation
- +5.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%.
At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 105 settled picksand +1.4% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
Model chance50.0%EV+5.1%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.10Closing odds—4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.3%EV+5.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.101 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.3%EV+3.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.061 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.3%EV+8.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.155 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.3%EV+5.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.106 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.3%EV+10.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.205 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.3%EV+11.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.228 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 16 Oct, 02:17: under 3.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Hellas VeronavCatanzaroSerie B1 pick· 1 active
Recorded result odds: 2.33 at Kambi.
- Current model chance
- 55.9%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.79
- Current expected value
- +17.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Current model chance 55.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Current expected value: +17.5%.
This league is still collecting results. The bookmaker’s overall market record determines the tier. View benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
BetMGM UKcurrent suggestionCurrentover 5.5
Model chance55.9%EV+17.5%Odds down−0.23At recommendation2.33Current odds2.101 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambirecorded bookmakerCurrentover 5.5
Model chance55.9%EV+14.1%Odds down−0.29At recommendation2.33Current odds2.041 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetCurrentover 5.5
Model chance55.9%EV+11.9%Odds down−0.17At recommendation2.17Current odds2.007 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBet365Currentover 5.5
Model chance55.9%EV+2.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.831 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveCurrentover 5.5
Model chance55.9%EV+6.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.905 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetCurrentover 5.5
Model chance55.9%EV+3.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.853 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetCurrentover 5.5
Model chance55.9%EV+6.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.905 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Use another bookmaker? Match this exact statistic, scope, direction and line. Compare your odds with the minimum above; another line needs its own model price.
Recommendation record
Recorded 13 Oct, 06:24: over 5.5 at 2.33 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 11:08. The original pick remains in the results.
Le MansvToulouseLigue 12 picks· 1 active
- Model chance at recommendation
- 58.1%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.73
- Expected value at recommendation
- +11.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 58.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +11.5%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 182 settled picksand +4.7% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
BetliveAt recommendationover 12.5
Model chance58.1%EV+30.8%Odds down−0.45At recommendation2.25Current odds1.809 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetAt recommendationover 12.5
Model chance58.1%EV+22.0%Odds down−0.35At recommendation2.10Current odds1.755 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetAt recommendationover 12.5
Model chance58.1%EV+27.9%Odds down−0.50At recommendation2.20Current odds1.703 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
Model chance58.1%EV+11.5%Odds down−0.22At recommendation1.92Current odds1.707 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBet365Currentover 12.5
Model chance57.8%EV+6.0%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.831 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetMGM UKCurrentover 12.5
Model chance57.8%EV+1.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.751 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiCurrentover 12.5
Model chance57.8%EV+4.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.812 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 14 Oct, 13:15: over 12.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 22:42. The original pick remains in the results.
Recorded result odds: 2.20 at Kambi.
- Current model chance
- 50.4%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.99
- Current expected value
- +1.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Current model chance 50.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Current expected value: +1.8%.
This league is still collecting results. The bookmaker’s overall market record determines the tier. View benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365Currentover 4.5
Model chance50.4%EV+0.8%UnchangedAt recommendation2.00Current odds2.001 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambirecorded bookmakerCurrentover 4.5
Model chance50.4%EV-13.8%Odds down−0.49At recommendation2.20Current odds1.713 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetcurrent suggestionCurrentover 4.5
Model chance50.4%EV+1.8%Odds down−0.10At recommendation2.12Current odds2.027 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetMGM UKCurrentover 4.5
Model chance50.4%EV-16.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.661 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveCurrentover 4.5
Model chance50.4%EV-9.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.805 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetCurrentover 4.5
Model chance50.4%EV-6.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.853 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetCurrentover 4.5
Model chance50.4%EV-6.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.853 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Use another bookmaker? Match this exact statistic, scope, direction and line. Compare your odds with the minimum above; another line needs its own model price.
Recommendation record
Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 4.5 at 2.20 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.
Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 07:22. The original pick remains in the results.
Ponte PretavAtlético GoianienseBrasileirão Série B1 pick· 0 active
- Model chance at recommendation
- 51.9%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.93
- Expected value at recommendation
- +0.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 51.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +0.1%.
At recommendation, BetMGM UK’s overall market record had 90 settled picksand +3.7% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
Model chance51.9%EV+0.1%Odds down−0.03At recommendation1.93Current odds1.901 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBet365Currentover 3.5
Model chance52.5%EV-3.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.831 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveCurrentover 3.5
Model chance52.5%EV-8.1%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.753 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiCurrentover 3.5
Model chance52.5%EV-0.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.903 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetCurrentover 3.5
Model chance52.5%EV-8.1%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.753 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetCurrentover 3.5
Model chance52.5%EV-7.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.763 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 15 Oct, 13:36: over 3.5 at 1.93 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 11:04. The original pick remains in the results.
Sport RecifevFortalezaBrasileirão Série B1 pick· 0 active
- Model chance at recommendation
- 50.4%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.99
- Expected value at recommendation
- +0.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 50.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +0.9%.
At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 88 settled picksand +3.2% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
Model chance50.4%EV+0.9%Odds up+0.17At recommendation2.00Current odds2.173 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBet365Currentover 5.5
Model chance47.0%EV-10.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.911 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetMGM UKCurrentover 5.5
Model chance47.0%EV+0.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds2.141 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveCurrentover 5.5
Model chance47.0%EV-10.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.903 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetCurrentover 5.5
Model chance47.0%EV-7.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.973 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetCurrentover 5.5
Model chance47.0%EV-3.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds2.053 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 13 Oct, 18:25: over 5.5 at 2.00 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 04:06. The original pick remains in the results.
Atlante FCvPumas UNAMLiga MX, Apertura1 pick· 1 active
- Current model chance
- 54.6%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.84
- Current expected value
- +12.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Current model chance 54.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Current expected value: +12.4%.
This league is still collecting results. The bookmaker’s overall market record determines the tier. View benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
BetMGM UKcurrent suggestionCurrentover 5.5
Model chance54.6%EV+12.4%Odds down−0.01At recommendation2.07Current odds2.061 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBet365Currentover 5.5
Model chance54.6%EV+4.1%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.911 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveCurrentover 5.5
Model chance54.6%EV+6.4%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.955 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetCurrentover 5.5
Model chance54.6%EV+6.4%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Current odds1.953 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Use another bookmaker? Match this exact statistic, scope, direction and line. Compare your odds with the minimum above; another line needs its own model price.
Recommendation record
Recorded 15 Oct, 13:24: over 5.5 at 2.07 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Selected day
Fri, 16 Oct 2026
All dates
Overall results
One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (2,881 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 16 Oct 2026.
How to read this board
A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.
Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.
Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.
Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.
Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.