Le Mans vs Toulouse 0-3 — Ligue 1

Ligue 1Ligue 1 26/27

Le Mans

0–3

HT 0–0

Toulouse

Fri 16 Oct·12:45·Matchday 7·Stade Marie-Marvingt·Toulouse won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

2Corners2
2Cards1
11Shots13
1Shots on target5
15Fouls9
17Throw-ins14
0Offsides3
7Goal kicks8
2Saves1
11Tackles13
4Interceptions7
6Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Board

Matches

1 match

12:45Le MansvToulouseLigue 11 won / 5 lost · −4.10u · 6 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 9.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1011 Oct, 06:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.73
Expected value at recommendation: +21.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +21.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.0%EV+21.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.2%EV+9.6%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.0%EV+5.4%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.0%EV+5.4%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.0%EV+5.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.0%EV+9.2%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 06:18: over 9.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 23:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Toulouse total

Open match →VIPLost

over 5.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.4013 Oct, 11:25

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +31.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +31.1%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 35 settled picksand +17.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.6%EV+31.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+28.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+30.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+30.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.52
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+34.7%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: over 5.5 at 2.40 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Toulouse total

Open match →FreeWon

under 14.5Actual: 9+0.90u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9016 Oct, 03:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +3.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +3.8%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 258 settled picksand +9.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.6%EV+3.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.6%EV+9.2%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.6%EV+3.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 03:24: under 14.5 at 1.90 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPLost

over 27.5Actual: 24−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2214 Oct, 13:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.77
Expected value at recommendation: +25.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +25.5%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 262 settled picksand +12.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 27.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.7%EV+38.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 27.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+17.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 27.5
At recommendation2.22
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.5%EV+25.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.7%EV+13.5%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.7%EV+13.5%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 13:15: over 27.5 at 2.22 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 02:33. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Le Mans total

Open match →FreeLost

over 12.5Actual: 11−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9214 Oct, 13:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.73
Expected value at recommendation: +11.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +11.5%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 182 settled picksand +4.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.1%EV+30.8%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.1%EV+22.0%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.1%EV+27.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.1%EV+11.5%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.8%EV+6.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.8%EV+1.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.81
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.8%EV+4.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 13:15: over 12.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 22:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Le Mans total

Open match →FreeLost

over 4.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2010 Oct, 01:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +12.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +12.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.4%EV+0.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.1%EV+12.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.4%EV+6.8%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.66
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV-16.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV-9.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV-6.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV-6.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 4.5 at 2.20 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 07:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−68.3%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit−4.10units

W / L1 / 5picks

Avg odds2.12settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLigue 1 Home teamLe Mans Away teamToulouse RefereeAurelien Petit