SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior 4-0 — Eredivisie

EredivisieEredivisie 26/27

SC Heerenveen

4–0

HT 1–0

Excelsior

Fri 16 Oct·12:00·Matchday 9·Abe Lenstra Stadion·SC Heerenveen won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

4Corners1
0Cards1
14Shots5
7Shots on target1
9Fouls10
20Throw-ins16
3Offsides0
10Goal kicks8
1Saves3
9Tackles15
6Interceptions9
4Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available2Recorded Free1Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

12:00SC HeerenveenvExcelsiorEredivisie1 won / 2 lost · −0.90u · 3 picks

Corners · Excelsior total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 1+1.10u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1016 Oct, 02:17

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 105 settled picksand +1.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.0%EV+5.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+5.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.06
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+3.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+8.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+5.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+10.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.22
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+11.8%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 02:17: under 3.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Saves · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8516 Oct, 04:58

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.77
Expected value at recommendation: +4.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +4.8%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +11.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.7%EV+4.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.08
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.7%EV+17.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 04:58: over 6.5 at 1.85 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Excelsior total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2813 Oct, 06:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.92
Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation2.28
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.1%EV+18.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.35
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.0%EV-17.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.0%EV-30.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.0%EV-35.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.0%EV-24.8%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 06:24: over 12.5 at 2.28 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 06:30. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−30.0%ROI · 3 units staked

Profit−0.90units

W / L1 / 2picks

Avg odds2.08settled picks

Recorded picks31 matches

Around this match

CompetitionEredivisie Home teamSC Heerenveen Away teamExcelsior RefereeRobin Hensgens

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Excelsior total

Saves · match total

Shots · Excelsior total

This match

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