Predictions
Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.
Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.
7 picks shown with Paddy Power prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.
Board
Matches
MiddlesbroughvCardiff CityChampionship0 won / 2 lost · −2.00u · 2 picks
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 52.8%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.90
- Expected value at recommendation
- +0.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 52.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +0.9%.
At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 41 settled picksand +10.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
Model chance52.8%EV+0.9%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.91Closing odds—9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
Model chance50.2%EV-24.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.509 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
Model chance50.2%EV-24.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.506 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
Model chance50.2%EV-24.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.505 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 11.5
Model chance50.2%EV-21.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.574 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
Model chance50.2%EV-19.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.6011 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 13 Oct, 11:45: under 11.5 at 1.91 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:07. The original pick remains in the results.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 77.4%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.30
- Expected value at recommendation
- +108.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 77.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.30. Expected value at recommendation: +108.9%.
At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 35 settled picksand +17.6% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
Model chance77.4%EV+108.9%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.70Closing odds—4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance31.3%EV-4.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds3.055 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance31.3%EV-7.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.953 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance31.3%EV+12.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds3.604 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance31.3%EV-7.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.957 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: over 5.5 at 2.70 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:24. The original pick remains in the results.
EspanyolvAtlético MadridLaLiga0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 51.8%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.94
- Expected value at recommendation
- +8.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +8.8%.
At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 105 settled picksand +1.4% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
Model chance51.8%EV+8.8%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.10Closing odds—5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 4.5
Model chance50.6%EV+5.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.081 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
Model chance50.6%EV+11.4%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.205 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
Model chance50.6%EV+8.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.147 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
Model chance50.6%EV+11.4%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.205 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
Model chance50.6%EV+6.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.104 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
Model chance50.6%EV+14.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.2711 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 16 Oct, 03:00: under 4.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
FK PardubicevFC ZlínCzech First League0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 53.3%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.88
- Expected value at recommendation
- +3.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +3.9%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 61 settled picksand +1.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
Model chance53.3%EV+3.9%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.95Closing odds—7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance47.5%EV+4.4%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.2025 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance47.5%EV-7.4%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.9511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance47.5%EV-9.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.9011 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance47.5%EV-8.4%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.934 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance47.5%EV-9.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.9015 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance47.5%EV-5.1%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.006 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance47.5%EV-1.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.073 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance47.5%EV-4.1%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.0212 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 16 Oct, 17:24: under 2.5 at 1.95 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 04:42. The original pick remains in the results.
West Bromwich AlbionvBlackburn RoversChampionship0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 53.9%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.86
- Expected value at recommendation
- +5.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 53.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%.
At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 180 settled picksand +1.8% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
Model chance53.9%EV+5.1%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.95Closing odds—4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBet365Closing estimateunder 5.5
Model chance53.9%EV+7.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.001 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 5.5
Model chance53.9%EV-0.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.856 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.5
Model chance53.9%EV-3.0%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.803 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 5.5
Model chance53.9%EV+5.1%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.954 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
Model chance53.9%EV+10.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.057 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 17 Oct, 05:45: under 5.5 at 1.95 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
HibernianvFalkirk FCScottish Premiership0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 50.6%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.98
- Expected value at recommendation
- +6.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 50.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +6.3%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
Model chance50.6%EV+6.3%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.10Closing odds—7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance48.9%EV+10.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.2625 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance48.9%EV-2.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.0011 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance48.9%EV-2.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.0011 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance48.9%EV+6.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.186 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance48.9%EV-2.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.0013 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance48.9%EV-2.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.006 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance48.9%EV+7.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.203 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance48.9%EV+5.1%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.1514 bookmaker lines available.
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Recommendation record
Recorded 15 Oct, 06:18: under 2.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 05:52. The original pick remains in the results.
Manchester CityvIpswich TownPremier League0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 54.4%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.84
- Expected value at recommendation
- +8.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 54.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +8.8%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 62 settled picksand +3.3% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
Model chance54.4%EV+8.8%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.00Closing odds—7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.1%EV+8.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.1633 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.1%EV-7.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.1%EV-7.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.1%EV+3.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.078 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.1%EV-7.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8520 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.1%EV+0.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.006 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPinnacleClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.1%EV+7.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.143 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance50.1%EV-2.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.9521 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 17 Oct, 00:27: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Selected day
Sat, 17 Oct 2026
All dates
Overall results
One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,895 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 19 Oct 2026.
How to read this board
A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.
Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.
Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.
Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.
Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.