Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid 0-1 — LaLiga

LaLigaLaLiga 26/27

Espanyol

0–1

HT 0–0

Atlético Madrid

Sat 17 Oct·06:00·Matchday 9·RCDE Stadium·Atlético Madrid won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

4Corners12
2Cards5
10Shots19
2Shots on target6
10Fouls9
15Throw-ins14
0Offsides4
13Goal kicks6
5Saves2
11Tackles11
11Interceptions12
5Dribbles8

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available3Recorded Free1Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

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Matches

1 match

06:00EspanyolvAtlético MadridLaLiga1 won / 3 lost · −2.00u · 4 picks

Corners · Atlético Madrid total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 12−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1016 Oct, 03:00

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.94
Expected value at recommendation: +8.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +8.8%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 105 settled picksand +1.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.8%EV+8.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.08
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+5.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+11.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.14
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+8.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+11.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+6.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.27
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+14.9%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 03:00: under 4.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Fouls · Atlético Madrid total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 9+1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0016 Oct, 03:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.74
Expected value at recommendation: +15.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.74. Expected value at recommendation: +15.6%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 258 settled picksand +9.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.8%EV+15.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV+13.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV+25.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.77
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV+5.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 03:24: under 11.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 03:49. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Atlético Madrid total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 14.5Actual: 19−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9515 Oct, 06:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 61.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.63
Expected value at recommendation: +19.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 61.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.63. Expected value at recommendation: +19.9%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 32 settled picksand +14.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.5%EV+19.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.6%EV+13.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.6%EV+25.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.6%EV+19.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.6%EV+19.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.6%EV+31.2%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 06:06: under 14.5 at 1.95 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2016 Oct, 09:47

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.94
Expected value at recommendation: +13.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +13.8%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 250 settled picksand +3.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.5%EV+27.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.7%EV+13.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV+23.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV+10.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV+26.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV+17.9%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 09:47: over 9.5 at 2.20 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−50.0%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit−2.00units

W / L1 / 3picks

Avg odds2.06settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLaLiga Home teamEspanyol Away teamAtlético Madrid RefereeAlejandro Hernandez

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Atlético Madrid total

Fouls · Atlético Madrid total

Shots · Atlético Madrid total

Shots on target · match total

This match

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