Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City 2-2 — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Middlesbrough

2–2

HT 0–2

Cardiff City

Sat 17 Oct·05:30·Matchday 11·Riverside·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

11Corners4
0Cards2
36Shots7
12Shots on target3
9Fouls10
17Throw-ins17
3Offsides4
4Goal kicks15
1Saves8
20Tackles17
9Interceptions12
9Dribbles7

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available4Recorded Free3Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

05:30MiddlesbroughvCardiff CityChampionship4 won / 3 lost · +1.04u · 7 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 15−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9113 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.90
Expected value at recommendation: +0.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 52.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +0.9%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 41 settled picksand +10.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.8%EV+0.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV-24.7%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV-24.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV-24.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.57
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV-21.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV-19.7%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:45: under 11.5 at 1.91 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:07. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Middlesbrough total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 11+0.84u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8414 Oct, 18:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 91 settled picksand +2.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation1.84
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.9%EV+4.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.5%EV+13.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.5%EV+7.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.5%EV+4.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.97
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.5%EV+17.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 18:24: over 6.5 at 1.84 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 11:08. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Cardiff City total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.7013 Oct, 11:25

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 77.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.30
Expected value at recommendation: +108.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 77.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.30. Expected value at recommendation: +108.9%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 35 settled picksand +17.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation2.70
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance77.4%EV+108.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds3.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.3%EV-4.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.3%EV-7.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds3.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.3%EV+12.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.3%EV-7.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: over 5.5 at 2.70 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Cardiff City total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9215 Oct, 13:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 66.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.51
Expected value at recommendation: +27.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 66.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.51. Expected value at recommendation: +27.3%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 47 settled picksand +20.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

LiderbetAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance68.4%EV+26.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance66.3%EV+27.3%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 13:49: over 10.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 13:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 7+1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0017 Oct, 01:44

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +8.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +8.7%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 131 settled picksand +6.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+8.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.5%EV+8.3%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 01:44: over 4.5 at 2.00 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Middlesbrough total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 19.5Actual: 36+1.15u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1515 Oct, 10:00

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.94
Expected value at recommendation: +11.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +11.3%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 189 settled picksand +5.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

LiderbetAt recommendationover 19.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.2%EV+9.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 19.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.8%EV+11.3%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 10:00: over 19.5 at 2.15 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · Middlesbrough total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 12+1.05u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0515 Oct, 10:00

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +15.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +15.1%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 133 settled picksand +6.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.1%EV+17.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.1%EV+15.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+24.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.98
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+22.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+14.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 10:00: over 6.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+14.9%ROI · 7 units staked

Profit+1.04units

W / L4 / 3picks

Avg odds2.08settled picks

Recorded picks71 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionship Home teamMiddlesbrough Away teamCardiff City RefereeTom Nield

Match overview

Matches

Corners · match total

Corners · Middlesbrough total

Corners · Cardiff City total

Fouls · Cardiff City total

Offsides · match total

Shots · Middlesbrough total

Shots on target · Middlesbrough total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

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