Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

13 Free3 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

16 picks shown with Paddy Power prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

7 matches

06:00Real ValladolidvAlbacete BalompiéLaLiga 21 won / 0 lost · +0.95u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 2.5Actual: 5+0.95u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.958 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +4.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +4.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.8%EV+4.8%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.6%EV+11.2%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.6%EV+0.1%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.6%EV+0.1%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.6%EV+0.1%
13 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.6%EV+1.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.6%EV+6.6%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.6%EV+6.7%
14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:51: over 2.5 at 1.95 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

10:30AtalantavVeneziaSerie A1 won / 0 lost · +1.00u · 1 pick

Corners · Venezia total

Open match →FreeWon

over 3.5Actual: 7+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.007 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.74
Expected value at recommendation: +15.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.74. Expected value at recommendation: +15.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.8%EV+15.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.8%EV+15.5%
SuperbetAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.8%EV+13.8%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV-0.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV-3.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV-0.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV-0.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 08:54. The original pick remains in the results.

12:45TorinovUdineseSerie A2 won / 1 lost · +1.77u · 3 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeWon

under 2.5Actual: 1+1.67u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.6711 Oct, 15:47

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +38.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +38.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.67
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.0%EV+38.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+13.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+1.1%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+1.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+8.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+1.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+26.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 15:47: under 2.5 at 2.67 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Torino total

Open match →FreeLost

over 4.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.937 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +10.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +10.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.5%EV+10.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.93
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.2%EV+10.5%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV+0.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV-8.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV-5.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV-8.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV+0.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV+2.2%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 4.5 at 1.93 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 16:32. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Udinese total

Open match →VIPWon

under 3.5Actual: 3+1.10u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1012 Oct, 11:54

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +5.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +5.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.3%EV+5.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+15.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+10.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.06
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+3.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+15.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+10.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+5.6%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 11:54: under 3.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

13:00Levante UDvSevillaLaLiga1 won / 3 lost · −1.94u · 4 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 4.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8711 Oct, 06:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 63.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.58
Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 63.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.6%EV+18.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.7%EV+33.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.89
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.7%EV+26.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.7%EV+26.7%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.7%EV+26.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.7%EV+26.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.7%EV+30.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 06:36: under 4.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 09:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 9.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.007 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.82
Expected value at recommendation: +10.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +10.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.2%EV+10.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.2%EV+10.5%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV-1.1%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV-1.1%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV+7.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV-1.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV+7.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 9.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 09:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Sevilla total

Open match →FreeLost

over 4.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.007 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +11.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +11.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.9%EV+11.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.9%EV+11.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.9%EV+9.1%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.3%EV-9.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.3%EV-13.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.3%EV-8.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.3%EV-13.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.3%EV-3.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 4.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 2.5Actual: 6+1.06u on one unit

Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.068 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +17.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +17.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.06
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.2%EV+17.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.0%EV-5.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.0%EV-14.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.16
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.0%EV-7.1%
24 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.0%EV-18.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.0%EV-18.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.0%EV-18.3%
13 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.0%EV-14.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.0%EV-13.2%
20 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:51: over 2.5 at 2.06 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00Coventry CityvNewcastle UnitedPremier League1 won / 0 lost · +0.85u · 1 pick

Corners · Coventry City total

Open match →FreeWon

under 4.5Actual: 2+0.85u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8511 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +9.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +9.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.0%EV+9.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.0%EV+12.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV-6.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV+0.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV-7.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV-2.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV-0.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 00:06: under 4.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

16:30ChapecoensevAthleticoBrasileirão Série A1 won / 1 lost · −0.12u · 2 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →VIPLost

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9512 Oct, 05:37

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy Powerresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.9%EV+1.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-11.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-7.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-13.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-13.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-7.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-13.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-9.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 05:37: over 4.5 at 1.95 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeWon

under 4.5Actual: 3+0.88u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8811 Oct, 03:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.0%EV+2.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.0%EV+5.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-3.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-11.1%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-11.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.77
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-10.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-11.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-12.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: under 4.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 22:47. The original pick remains in the results.

18:00Red Bull BragantinovCruzeiroBrasileirão Série A4 won / 0 lost · +4.08u · 4 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeWon

under 4.5Actual: 4+1.30u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3011 Oct, 03:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +35.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +35.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.9%EV+24.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.9%EV+35.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.8%EV+22.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.8%EV+22.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.8%EV+22.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.8%EV+30.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: under 4.5 at 2.30 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 10.5Actual: 13+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9111 Oct, 03:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.8%EV+4.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV-10.0%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV-10.0%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV-10.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV-0.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.5%EV-5.7%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: over 10.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Red Bull Bragantino total

Open match →VIPWon

over 5.5Actual: 7+0.87u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8711 Oct, 03:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.71
Expected value at recommendation: +9.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +9.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.5%EV+9.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.2%EV+4.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.49
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.2%EV-14.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.2%EV-8.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.52
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.2%EV-13.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.2%EV-1.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.69
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.2%EV-3.4%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: over 5.5 at 1.87 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 21:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Cruzeiro total

Open match →FreeWon

over 4.5Actual: 6+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 17:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.3%EV+0.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-9.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-11.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.87
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-5.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.86
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-6.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-7.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.77
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-10.9%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 17:36: over 4.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Selected day

Mon, 12 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

Return+10.4%ROI · 146 units staked

Profit+15.16units

W / L78 / 68picks

Avg odds2.06settled picks

Recorded picks1493 awaiting result

All dates

Overall results

5,130 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,974 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 18 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.7%

Profit+138.37 u

W / L2,521 / 2,609

Avg odds2.12

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.