Chapecoense vs Athletico 1-4 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Chapecoense

1–4

HT 0–3

Athletico

Mon 12 Oct·16:30·Matchday 30·Arena Condá·Athletico won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

6Corners7
2Cards1
21Shots11
7Shots on target8
17Fouls11
17Throw-ins9
1Offsides0
4Goal kicks16
4Saves6
6Tackles8
8Interceptions5
4Dribbles8

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

16:30ChapecoensevAthleticoBrasileirão Série A4 won / 2 lost · +1.68u · 6 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9512 Oct, 05:37

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy Powerresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.9%EV+1.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-11.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-7.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-13.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-13.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-7.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-13.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-9.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 05:37: over 4.5 at 1.95 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 3+0.88u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8811 Oct, 03:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.0%EV+2.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.0%EV+5.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-3.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-11.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-11.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.77
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-10.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-11.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-12.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: under 4.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 22:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · Athletico total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 4+0.90u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9010 Oct, 01:19

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.8%EV+6.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.8%EV+6.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.6%EV+1.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.0%EV+0.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.0%EV+1.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:19: over 1.5 at 1.90 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · Athletico total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 0−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.6012 Oct, 05:37

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +30.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +30.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.60
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.3%EV+30.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+26.6%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.44
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-27.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+29.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 05:37: over 1.5 at 2.60 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Chapecoense total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 21+0.85u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8510 Oct, 01:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 62.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.61
Expected value at recommendation: +15.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 62.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +15.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.4%EV+15.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.54
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.6%EV-8.1%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 12.5 at 1.85 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 15+1.05u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0510 Oct, 16:47

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.89
Expected value at recommendation: +8.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +8.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.0%EV+8.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+17.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+6.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV-0.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+17.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 16:47: over 9.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+28.0%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit+1.68units

W / L4 / 2picks

Avg odds2.04settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamChapecoense Away teamAthletico RefereeWilton Pereira Sampaio

Match overview

Matches

Cards · match total

Cards · match total

Goals · Athletico total

Offsides · Athletico total

Shots · Chapecoense total

Shots on target · match total

This match

Around this match

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