Roma vs Real Madrid 3-4 — UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 26/27

Roma

3–4

HT 1–1

Real Madrid

Wed 14 Oct·13:00·Matchday 2·Stadio Olimpico, Rome·Real Madrid won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners9
3Cards1
14Shots16
7Shots on target8
15Fouls8
20Throw-ins16
1Offsides1
10Goal kicks5
4Saves4
12Tackles15
14Interceptions13
6Dribbles11

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00RomavReal MadridUEFA Champions League3 won / 5 lost · −2.10u · 8 picks

Corners · Roma total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 5+1.05u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0513 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 104 settled picksand +0.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

KambiAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.4%EV+2.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.4%EV+5.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.1%EV-17.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.1%EV-24.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.1%EV-20.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.1%EV-26.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.1%EV-13.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 4.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Roma total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 15−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 11:25

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 75.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.32
Expected value at recommendation: +51.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 75.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.32. Expected value at recommendation: +51.7%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 31 settled picksand +3.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance75.9%EV+47.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance75.9%EV+51.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.35
No saved recommendation
Model chance75.9%EV+78.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: under 11.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 16:52. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Roma total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 7.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1513 Oct, 07:03

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 75.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.33
Expected value at recommendation: +61.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 75.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.33. Expected value at recommendation: +61.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance75.4%EV+69.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance73.9%EV+62.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance75.3%EV+61.8%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 07:03: under 7.5 at 2.15 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Offsides · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation4.5013 Oct, 06:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.72
Expected value at recommendation: +161.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.72. Expected value at recommendation: +161.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation5.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.3%EV+206.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation4.50
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.1%EV+161.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 06:24: under 1.5 at 4.50 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Offsides · Roma total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 1+1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 06:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 83.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.21
Expected value at recommendation: +66.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 83.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.21. Expected value at recommendation: +66.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance83.0%EV+66.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance83.4%EV+62.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance83.2%EV+66.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 06:24: under 1.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Offsides · Real Madrid total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 0.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation4.0013 Oct, 13:25

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +104.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +104.3%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 30 settled picksand +4.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 0.5
At recommendation4.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.1%EV+104.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 13:25: under 0.5 at 4.00 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 17:30. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 29.5Actual: 30+0.85u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8513 Oct, 22:50

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +3.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +3.8%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 189 settled picksand +15.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 29.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.1%EV+3.8%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 29.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV-5.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 29.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.63
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV-14.1%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 29.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV-13.1%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 29.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.63
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV-14.1%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 22:50: over 29.5 at 1.85 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 01:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Roma total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 14.5Actual: 14−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2013 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +10.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +10.0%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 136 settled picksand +22.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 14.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.0%EV+10.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.4%EV-32.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.4%EV-22.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.23
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.4%EV-21.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.4%EV-30.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.4%EV-27.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 14.5 at 2.20 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−26.3%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit−2.10units

W / L3 / 5picks

Avg odds2.59settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Champions League Home teamRoma Away teamReal Madrid RefereeFrançois Letexier

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Roma total

Fouls · Roma total

Goal kicks · Roma total

Offsides · match total

Offsides · Roma total

Offsides · Real Madrid total

Shots · match total

Shots · Roma total

This match

Around this match

On this page

This category

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