Sassuolo vs Milan — Serie A

Serie ASerie A 26/27

Sassuolo

1–1

HT 0–0

Milan

Sun 11 Oct··Matchday 6·Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 3Corners5
  • 1Cards4
  • 10Shots11
  • 4Shots on target6
  • 13Fouls11
  • 7Throw-ins17
  • 1Offsides0
  • 3Goal kicks7
  • 5Saves3
  • 22Tackles17
  • 9Interceptions8
  • 4Dribbles6
OddsOddsStatsStatsPredictionsPicksRefereeRefereeCoachCoach
0Free available0VIP available11Recorded Free4Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match
SassuolovMilanSerie A5 won / 10 lost · −4.88u · 15 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds2.05
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
59.4%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.69
Expected value at recommendation
+21.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +21.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 3.5
    At recommendation2.28
    Closing odds2.25
    Odds down−0.03
    Model chance60.4%EV+37.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+35.8%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
    At recommendation2.05
    Closing odds2.05
    Unchanged
    Model chance59.4%EV+21.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 07:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds15.00Closing chance estimate4.1%Closing EV estimate−38.6%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds6.10Closing chance estimate17.2%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate38.1%Closing EV estimate+21.9%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+23.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+10.1%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate98.3%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.3%EV+20.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 21:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.3%EV+14.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 15:16

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds5.60Closing chance estimate17.2%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate38.1%Closing EV estimate+16.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.3%EV+14.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 15:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate17.2%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate38.1%Closing EV estimate+16.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.3%EV+14.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 15:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds5.60Closing chance estimate17.2%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate38.1%Closing EV estimate+16.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate95.6%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.3%EV+17.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:20

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate38.1%Closing EV estimate+33.3%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+17.7%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: under 3.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · Sassuolo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 1+1.30u on one unit
Crocobetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds2.30
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
51.3%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.95
Expected value at recommendation
+18.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.15
    Closing odds2.15
    Unchanged
    Model chance51.4%EV+10.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate52.0%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate78.0%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.30
    Closing odds2.30
    Unchanged
    Model chance51.3%EV+18.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 08:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate52.0%Closing EV estimate+19.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate78.0%Closing EV estimate+13.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.28
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance51.3%EV+17.1%
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.30
    Closing odds2.30
    Unchanged
    Model chance51.3%EV+18.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 10:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate52.0%Closing EV estimate+19.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate78.0%Closing EV estimate+13.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.57
    Closing odds2.55
    Odds down−0.02
    Model chance51.3%EV+32.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate19.9%Closing EV estimate−79.3%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate52.0%Closing EV estimate+32.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.52Closing chance estimate78.0%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate91.9%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 00:06: under 1.5 at 2.30 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · Milan total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.30
Odds up+0.20
Model chance at recommendation
50.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
2.00
Expected value at recommendation
+5.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +5.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.00
    Unchanged
    Model chance52.4%EV+4.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate78.8%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.20
    Closing odds2.20
    Unchanged
    Model chance52.4%EV+15.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 08:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+16.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate78.8%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate92.4%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds2.30
    Odds up+0.20
    Model chance50.2%EV+5.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 08:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+22.1%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.20
    Closing odds2.20
    Unchanged
    Model chance50.2%EV+10.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 10:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+16.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate78.8%Closing EV estimate+10.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation1.92
    Closing odds2.00
    Odds up+0.08
    Model chance52.4%EV+0.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate20.6%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate78.8%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 13:51: under 1.5 at 2.10 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 8.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds1.83
Odds down−0.27
Model chance at recommendation
58.8%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.71
Expected value at recommendation
+23.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +23.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 8.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds1.83
    Odds down−0.27
    Model chance58.8%EV+23.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate60.1%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.1%EV-3.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate94.8%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate71.6%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate60.1%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate37.0%Closing EV estimate−5.8%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate27.0%Closing EV estimate−8.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.85Closing chance estimate18.9%Closing EV estimate−8.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate12.7%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.1%EV-3.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate94.8%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate71.6%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate60.1%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate37.0%Closing EV estimate−5.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate27.0%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds5.45Closing chance estimate18.9%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.1%EV-3.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate71.6%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate60.1%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate37.0%Closing EV estimate−5.8%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.69
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance60.1%EV+1.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate99.3%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin2.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate97.9%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate94.8%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate71.6%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.69Closing chance estimate60.1%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.07Closing chance estimate48.2%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate37.0%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate27.0%Closing EV estimate−8.1%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate18.9%Closing EV estimate−14.8%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate12.7%Closing EV estimate−23.8%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds8.10Closing chance estimate8.2%Closing EV estimate−33.8%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds11.00Closing chance estimate5.1%Closing EV estimate−44.4%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds16.00Closing chance estimate3.0%Closing EV estimate−51.8%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds23.00Closing chance estimate1.7%Closing EV estimate−60.1%margin3.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: over 8.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:32. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Sassuolo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds1.83
Odds down−0.27
Model chance at recommendation
63.4%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.58
Expected value at recommendation
+33.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 63.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +33.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds1.83
    Odds down−0.27
    Model chance63.4%EV+33.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 07:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 3.5
    At recommendation1.85
    Closing odds1.68
    Odds down−0.17
    Model chance63.4%EV+17.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.68Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−11.5%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 3.5
    At recommendation1.85
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance63.4%EV+17.3%
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.7%EV-15.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate88.6%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate72.5%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−15.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate34.0%Closing EV estimate−23.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate19.6%Closing EV estimate−31.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds5.70Closing chance estimate10.2%Closing EV estimate−41.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.7%EV-15.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate88.6%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate72.5%Closing EV estimate−9.3%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−15.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate34.0%Closing EV estimate−25.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate19.6%Closing EV estimate−35.3%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate10.2%Closing EV estimate−38.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.64
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.7%EV-13.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate88.6%Closing EV estimate−8.7%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate72.5%Closing EV estimate−10.1%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.64Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−13.6%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.36Closing chance estimate34.0%Closing EV estimate−19.8%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate19.6%Closing EV estimate−27.5%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds6.20Closing chance estimate10.2%Closing EV estimate−36.8%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.7%EV-13.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:20

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate72.5%Closing EV estimate−6.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate34.0%Closing EV estimate−18.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate19.6%Closing EV estimate−21.6%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.73
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.7%EV-8.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate97.5%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate88.6%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate72.5%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−8.9%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate34.0%Closing EV estimate−18.4%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate19.6%Closing EV estimate−31.4%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds5.25Closing chance estimate10.2%Closing EV estimate−46.5%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds7.90Closing chance estimate4.8%Closing EV estimate−61.8%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate2.1%Closing EV estimate−72.6%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds20.00Closing chance estimate0.8%Closing EV estimate−83.0%margin4.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Milan total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 5+0.91u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds1.73
Odds down−0.18
Model chance at recommendation
53.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.87
Expected value at recommendation
+2.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +2.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.5
    At recommendation1.91
    Closing odds1.73
    Odds down−0.18
    Model chance53.5%EV+2.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 07:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+15.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 4.5
    At recommendation2.02
    Closing odds1.73
    Odds down−0.29
    Model chance53.5%EV+8.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.55
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance66.6%EV+3.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:31

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate91.4%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate80.9%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate23.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.55
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance66.6%EV+3.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate91.4%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate80.9%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate23.2%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.57
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance66.6%EV+4.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate91.4%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate80.9%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.57Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.13Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.80Closing chance estimate23.2%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance66.6%EV+16.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:20

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate91.4%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate80.9%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.66
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance66.6%EV+10.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate99.6%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin2.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate97.3%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate91.4%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate80.9%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate50.7%Closing EV estimate+11.5%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate23.2%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds6.30Closing chance estimate14.0%Closing EV estimate−11.7%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds9.10Closing chance estimate7.9%Closing EV estimate−28.0%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds14.00Closing chance estimate4.2%Closing EV estimate−41.2%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 4.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 23.5Actual: 24−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds1.74
Odds down−0.09
Model chance at recommendation
73.7%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.36
Expected value at recommendation
+34.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 73.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.36. Expected value at recommendation: +34.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 23.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.37
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance80.7%EV+10.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 18.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate42.3%Closing EV estimate+22.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 19.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate51.0%Closing EV estimate+22.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 20.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate59.5%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 21.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+18.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 22.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 23.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.37Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate85.7%Closing EV estimate+8.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate89.7%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 23.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.35
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance80.7%EV+8.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 08:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 18.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate42.3%Closing EV estimate+20.4%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 19.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate51.0%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 20.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate59.5%Closing EV estimate+16.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 21.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+18.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 22.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+15.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 23.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.35Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate85.7%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate89.7%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 23.5
    At recommendation1.83
    Closing odds1.74
    Odds down−0.09
    Model chance73.7%EV+34.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 08:34

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 22.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+50.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 23.5odds1.74Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+40.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate85.7%Closing EV estimate+32.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 23.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.35
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance80.7%EV+8.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 17.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate33.7%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 18.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate42.3%Closing EV estimate+14.1%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 19.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate51.0%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 20.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate59.5%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 21.5odds1.72Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+16.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 22.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate74.6%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 23.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.35Closing chance estimate80.7%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 24.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate85.7%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 25.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate89.7%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 10:11: under 23.5 at 1.83 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 16:11. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Milan total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 11+0.92u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds1.83
Odds down−0.09
Model chance at recommendation
68.7%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.46
Expected value at recommendation
+31.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 68.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.46. Expected value at recommendation: +31.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.49
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance69.8%EV+4.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate58.7%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.49Closing chance estimate69.8%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
    At recommendation1.92
    Closing odds1.83
    Odds down−0.09
    Model chance68.7%EV+31.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate69.8%Closing EV estimate+27.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance69.8%EV+4.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:30

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate58.7%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate69.8%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance69.8%EV+4.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 08:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate34.1%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate46.4%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate58.7%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate69.8%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate79.1%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate86.3%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 00:06: under 11.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 02:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 16.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds2.15
Odds down−0.05
Model chance at recommendation
54.7%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.83
Expected value at recommendation
+20.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +20.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationover 16.5
    At recommendation2.60
    Closing odds2.60
    Unchanged
    Model chance55.7%EV+44.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+22.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+33.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+36.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.60Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate+44.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 16.5
    At recommendation2.20
    Closing odds2.15
    Odds down−0.05
    Model chance54.7%EV+20.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 14.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds1.77Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate+19.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 16.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance55.7%EV+53.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+16.7%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+26.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+33.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+36.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.75Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate+53.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 16.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance55.7%EV+50.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate92.4%Closing EV estimate+13.7%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate87.8%Closing EV estimate+22.0%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate81.6%Closing EV estimate+28.1%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate74.0%Closing EV estimate+36.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+43.5%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.70Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate+50.5%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+61.5%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: over 16.5 at 2.20 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Goal kicks · Sassuolo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 8.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.14
Odds up+0.04
Model chance at recommendation
65.4%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.53
Expected value at recommendation
+37.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 65.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.53. Expected value at recommendation: +37.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance66.3%EV+32.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+20.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate66.3%Closing EV estimate+32.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate53.7%Closing EV estimate+39.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 8.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds2.14
    Odds up+0.04
    Model chance65.4%EV+37.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate+21.4%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.68Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+30.4%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds2.14Closing chance estimate66.3%Closing EV estimate+41.8%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance66.3%EV+39.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate86.7%Closing EV estimate+17.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+28.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate66.3%Closing EV estimate+39.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.87
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance66.3%EV+23.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.87Closing chance estimate66.3%Closing EV estimate+23.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: over 8.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 28.5Actual: 21−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds2.45
Odds down−0.30
Model chance at recommendation
59.4%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.69
Expected value at recommendation
+63.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +63.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 28.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 23.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate88.1%Closing EV estimate+23.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate+31.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+40.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+47.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 28.5
    At recommendation2.75
    Closing odds2.45
    Odds down−0.30
    Model chance59.4%EV+63.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 23.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailable
    • over 24.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate88.1%Closing EV estimate+29.6%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate+38.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+48.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.12Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+59.9%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 28.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.52
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 21.5odds1.17Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.4%Model unavailable
    • over 22.5odds1.24Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 23.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 24.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate88.1%Closing EV estimate+30.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate+40.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+52.5%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+66.0%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+116.7%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 28.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.35
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 23.5odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 24.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate88.1%Closing EV estimate+25.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate+31.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+44.4%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+50.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 28.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.40
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 23.5odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailable
    • over 24.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate88.1%Closing EV estimate+28.7%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.61Closing chance estimate84.5%Closing EV estimate+36.0%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+46.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.07Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate+56.2%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 10:11: over 28.5 at 2.75 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 22:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Sassuolo total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 11.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds1.73
Odds down−0.19
Model chance at recommendation
60.4%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.66
Expected value at recommendation
+15.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.66. Expected value at recommendation: +15.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 11.5
    At recommendation1.92
    Closing odds1.73
    Odds down−0.19
    Model chance60.4%EV+15.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+21.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+17.8%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate58.2%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance68.1%EV+32.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate94.8%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate90.6%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate84.7%Closing EV estimate+20.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+26.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+32.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate58.2%Closing EV estimate+36.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.82Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+35.4%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate+33.8%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.83
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance68.1%EV+24.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+24.8%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance68.1%EV+2.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate58.2%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance68.1%EV+2.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate58.2%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.55
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance68.1%EV+5.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.84Closing chance estimate58.2%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+8.0%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 10:11: over 11.5 at 1.92 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 11:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Milan total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 15.5Actual: 11−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.28
Closing odds2.28
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
71.9%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.40
Expected value at recommendation
+63.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 71.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.40. Expected value at recommendation: +63.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance73.9%EV+70.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+27.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+42.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate+57.5%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate73.9%Closing EV estimate+70.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 15.5
    At recommendation2.28
    Closing odds2.28
    Unchanged
    Model chance71.9%EV+63.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+44.5%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.93Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate+55.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimate73.9%Closing EV estimate+68.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.28
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance73.9%EV+68.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimate73.9%Closing EV estimate+68.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.40
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance73.9%EV+77.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+29.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+42.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate+61.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate73.9%Closing EV estimate+77.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.12
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance73.9%EV+56.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+26.6%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.56Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+35.0%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate80.8%Closing EV estimate+47.0%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.12Closing chance estimate73.9%Closing EV estimate+56.8%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.4%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate58.0%Closing EV estimate+71.0%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate49.5%Closing EV estimate+70.9%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: over 15.5 at 2.28 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 10+1.05u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds2.10
Odds up+0.05
Model chance at recommendation
53.3%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.88
Expected value at recommendation
+9.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +9.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
    At recommendation2.05
    Closing odds2.10
    Odds up+0.05
    Model chance53.3%EV+9.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.6%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate96.5%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate92.6%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate86.4%Closing EV estimate+18.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+29.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+41.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate55.8%Closing EV estimate+56.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate43.9%Closing EV estimate+60.4%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds5.45Closing chance estimate33.0%Closing EV estimate+79.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds6.70Closing chance estimate23.5%Closing EV estimate+57.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance67.4%EV+34.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate86.4%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+24.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+34.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate55.8%Closing EV estimate+42.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance67.4%EV+34.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate86.4%Closing EV estimate+14.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+28.6%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+34.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate55.8%Closing EV estimate+47.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate43.9%Closing EV estimate+62.6%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.03
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance67.4%EV+36.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate92.6%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate86.4%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.62Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+26.2%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.03Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+36.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate55.8%Closing EV estimate+42.2%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate43.9%Closing EV estimate+53.8%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate33.0%Closing EV estimate+61.6%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 10:11: over 9.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 22:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Sassuolo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 4+0.94u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.94
Closing odds1.74
Odds down−0.20
Model chance at recommendation
54.8%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.83
Expected value at recommendation
+6.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +6.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
    At recommendation1.94
    Closing odds1.74
    Odds down−0.20
    Model chance54.8%EV+6.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:33

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.74Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate+11.1%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate44.7%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate27.9%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.8%EV+14.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 21:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate+14.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.8%EV+2.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 04:01

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate44.7%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.8%EV+5.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate44.7%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.8%EV+5.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.33Closing chance estimate44.7%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.8%EV+11.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:32

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate93.3%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate63.8%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate44.7%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate27.9%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate−9.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 10:11: over 3.5 at 1.94 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 10:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return−32.5%ROI · 15 units staked
Profit−4.88units
W / L5 / 10picks
Avg odds2.10settled picks
Recorded picks151 matches

Around this match

CompetitionSerie AHome teamSassuoloAway teamMilanRefereeFrancesco Fourneau

Previous meetings

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