São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama 1-0 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

São Paulo

1–0

HT 0–0

Vasco da Gama

Sat 17 Oct·18:00·Matchday 31·Estádio do MorumBIS·São Paulo won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

3Corners4
2Cards · Result conflict2
9Shots13
2Shots on target2
14Fouls15
22Throw-ins23
1Offsides2
12Goal kicks7
2Saves1
35Tackles20
13Interceptions9
8Dribbles12

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

18:00São PaulovVasco da GamaBrasileirão Série A5 won / 3 lost · +1.47u · 8 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 06:18

Closing odds2.0017 Oct, 23:05

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 52.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.92
Expected value at recommendation: +4.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +4.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance52.3%EV+4.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 23:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:05
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-1.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 16:35
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate90.3%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:49
- over 7.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate83.5%Closing EV estimate−7.3%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:35
- over 8.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate74.7%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:09
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:16
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:09
- over 11.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate42.7%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:09
- over 12.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:09
- over 13.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate24.2%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:35
- over 14.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate17.2%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:49
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-1.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 10:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate83.5%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 10:34
- over 8.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate74.7%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:11
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:17
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:11
- over 11.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate42.7%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:11
- over 12.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:11
KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.89
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+1.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 17:43
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate83.5%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 23:46
- over 8.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate74.7%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:43
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 23:46
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.89Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:43
- over 11.5odds2.38Closing chance estimate42.7%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:43
- over 12.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:43
- over 13.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate24.2%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:16
- over 14.5odds5.30Closing chance estimate17.2%Closing EV estimate−8.9%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:16
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-1.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 18:12
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate74.7%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:12
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:18
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:12
- over 11.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate42.7%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:12
- over 12.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 18:12
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+6.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 23:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:05
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:05
- over 11.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.7%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:05
- over 12.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate+21.2%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:05
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+4.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 19:35
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate99.2%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin4.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 19:35
- over 4.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate97.8%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 19:35
- over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.0%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate90.3%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 7.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate83.5%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.7%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 9.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate64.4%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 11.5odds2.42Closing chance estimate42.7%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 12.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate32.7%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 13.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate24.2%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 08:09
- over 14.5odds5.15Closing chance estimate17.2%Closing EV estimate−11.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 15.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate11.8%Closing EV estimate−20.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 16.5odds9.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate−30.3%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 19:35
- over 17.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate4.9%Closing EV estimate−36.0%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 19:35
- over 18.5odds18.00Closing chance estimate3.0%Closing EV estimate−45.6%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 19:35

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 06:18: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 18:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · São Paulo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 13.5Actual: 14+0.82u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8216 Oct, 15:22

Closing odds1.9717 Oct, 17:15

Odds up+0.15

Model chance at recommendation: 56.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +3.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +3.5%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 62 settled picksand +6.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 13.5
At recommendation1.82
Closing odds1.97
Odds up+0.15
Model chance56.9%EV+3.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 17:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 12.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:51
- over 13.5odds1.97Closing chance estimate53.1%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:15
- over 14.5odds2.22Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:51

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 15:22: over 13.5 at 1.82 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · São Paulo total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 7.5Actual: 12−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8517 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds1.8517 Oct, 05:27

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 54.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 103 settled picksand +10.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.85
Unchanged
Model chance54.7%EV+1.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:27
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate40.5%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- under 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate64.9%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: under 7.5 at 1.85 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 17:30. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 3+0.85u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8517 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds1.8517 Oct, 05:27

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 60.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +12.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +12.5%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 132 settled picksand +7.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.85
Unchanged
Model chance60.8%EV+12.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:27
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+2.7%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+12.6%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- over 3.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate38.5%Closing EV estimate+27.2%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
LiderbetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.90
Unchanged
Model chance60.8%EV+15.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 17:52
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:01
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate60.9%Closing EV estimate+15.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:52
- over 3.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate38.5%Closing EV estimate+29.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:01
- over 4.5odds6.55Closing chance estimate21.0%Closing EV estimate+37.4%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:01

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: over 2.5 at 1.85 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Offsides · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 2+1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0017 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds2.0017 Oct, 05:27

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 51.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 110 settled picksand +7.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance51.2%EV+2.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:27
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.5%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- over 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate25.0%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
LiderbetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.06
Closing odds2.00
Odds down−0.06
Model chance51.2%EV+5.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 17:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate51.5%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:01
- over 2.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate25.0%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:01

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: over 1.5 at 2.00 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8316 Oct, 04:18

Closing odds1.9017 Oct, 17:34

Odds up+0.07

Model chance at recommendation: 59.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +8.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +8.1%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 36 settled picksand +17.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds1.90
Odds up+0.07
Model chance59.1%EV+8.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 17:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:34
- under 13.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate58.1%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:34
Bet365Closing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV-7.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 23:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate−7.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 23:05
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV-7.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:27
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate−7.1%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- under 13.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate58.1%Closing EV estimate−7.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- under 14.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate−8.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+0.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 17:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:01
- under 13.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate58.1%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:01
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+3.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 17:46
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate26.1%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:30
- under 10.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate34.0%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:46
- under 11.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.1%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:46
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:46
- under 13.5odds1.74Closing chance estimate58.1%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:46
- under 14.5odds1.52Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:46
- under 15.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate72.1%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:46
- under 16.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 17:46

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 04:18: under 12.5 at 1.83 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 15:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 42.5Actual: 45+0.95u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9517 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds1.9517 Oct, 05:27

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 56.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +10.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +10.8%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 37 settled picksand +9.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 42.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds1.95
Unchanged
Model chance56.8%EV+10.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:27
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 40.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate65.0%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- over 41.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- over 42.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate56.0%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: over 42.5 at 1.95 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 20.5Actual: 23+0.85u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8517 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds1.8517 Oct, 05:27

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 55.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 51 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 20.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.85
Unchanged
Model chance55.8%EV+3.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:27
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 18.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate−0.2%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- over 19.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate62.3%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27
- over 20.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:27

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: over 20.5 at 1.85 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 11:07. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+18.4%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit+1.47units

W / L5 / 3picks

Avg odds1.89settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamSão Paulo Away teamVasco da Gama RefereeFernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho

Match overview

Matches

Corners · match total

Fouls · São Paulo total

Goal kicks · São Paulo total

Offsides · match total

Offsides · Vasco da Gama total

Shots · Vasco da Gama total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · Vasco da Gama total

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