São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama 1-0 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

São Paulo

1–0

HT 0–0

Vasco da Gama

Sat 17 Oct·18:00·Matchday 31·Estádio do MorumBIS·São Paulo won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

3Corners4
2Cards · Result conflict2
9Shots13
2Shots on target2
14Fouls15
22Throw-ins23
1Offsides2
12Goal kicks7
2Saves1
35Tackles20
13Interceptions9
8Dribbles12

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available6Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

18:00São PaulovVasco da GamaBrasileirão Série A5 won / 3 lost · +1.47u · 8 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 06:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.92
Expected value at recommendation: +4.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +4.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.3%EV+4.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-1.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-1.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.89
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+1.0%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-1.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+6.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV+4.2%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 06:18: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 18:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · São Paulo total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 13.5Actual: 14+0.82u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8216 Oct, 15:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +3.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +3.5%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 62 settled picksand +6.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 13.5
At recommendation1.82
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.9%EV+3.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 15:22: over 13.5 at 1.82 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · São Paulo total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 7.5Actual: 12−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8517 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 103 settled picksand +10.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+1.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: under 7.5 at 1.85 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 17:30. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 3+0.85u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8517 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +12.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +12.5%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 132 settled picksand +7.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.8%EV+12.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.8%EV+15.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: over 2.5 at 1.85 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Offsides · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 2+1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0017 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 110 settled picksand +7.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.2%EV+2.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.06
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.2%EV+5.5%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: over 1.5 at 2.00 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8316 Oct, 04:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +8.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +8.1%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 36 settled picksand +17.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.1%EV+8.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV-7.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV-7.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+0.5%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+3.0%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 04:18: under 12.5 at 1.83 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 15:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 42.5Actual: 45+0.95u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9517 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +10.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +10.8%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 37 settled picksand +9.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 42.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.8%EV+10.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: over 42.5 at 1.95 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 20.5Actual: 23+0.85u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8517 Oct, 05:28

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 51 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 20.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.8%EV+3.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:28: over 20.5 at 1.85 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 11:07. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+18.4%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit+1.47units

W / L5 / 3picks

Avg odds1.89settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamSão Paulo Away teamVasco da Gama RefereeFernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho

Match overview

Matches

Corners · match total

Fouls · São Paulo total

Goal kicks · São Paulo total

Offsides · match total

Offsides · Vasco da Gama total

Shots · Vasco da Gama total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · Vasco da Gama total

This match

Around this match

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