NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia — UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League 26/27

NEC Nijmegen

1–1

HT 0–1

Levski Sofia

Thu 15 Oct··Matchday 2·Stadion de Goffert·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 6Corners1
  • 1Cards0
  • 18Shots8
  • 9Shots on target2
  • 14Fouls14
  • 17Throw-ins18
  • 1Offsides1
  • 5Goal kicks10
  • 1Saves8
  • 24Tackles23
  • 7Interceptions10
  • 13Dribbles10
OddsOddsStatsStatsPredictionsPicksRefereeRefereeCoachCoach
0Free available0VIP available4Recorded Free6Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match
NEC NijmegenvLevski SofiaUEFA Europa League8 won / 2 lost · +6.46u · 10 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 7+0.98u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance at recommendation
51.0%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.97
Expected value at recommendation
+0.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +0.9%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 41 settled picksand +10.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
    At recommendation1.98
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance51.0%EV+0.9%
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.83
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.6%EV+0.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 13:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.6%EV-4.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 08:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate11.8%Closing EV estimate−24.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate20.2%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate30.8%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate42.6%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate83.0%Closing EV estimate−7.8%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.6%EV-4.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 08:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5odds6.50Closing chance estimate11.8%Closing EV estimate−23.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate20.2%Closing EV estimate−9.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate30.8%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate42.6%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate−3.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate83.0%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.6%EV-4.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5odds6.90Closing chance estimate11.8%Closing EV estimate−18.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds4.35Closing chance estimate20.2%Closing EV estimate−12.0%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate30.8%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate42.6%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate83.0%Closing EV estimate−8.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate−9.4%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.6%EV-1.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 08:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate75.4%Closing EV estimate−5.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate83.0%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:45: under 9.5 at 1.98 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:07. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · NEC Nijmegen total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 6+1.10u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
51.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.95
Expected value at recommendation
+8.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +8.2%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 32 settled picksand +10.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 5.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds2.10
    Unchanged
    Model chance51.5%EV+8.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 13:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate−9.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance43.0%EV-18.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 05:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate72.6%Closing EV estimate−13.6%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate−18.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate29.9%Closing EV estimate−20.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate19.3%Closing EV estimate−22.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance43.0%EV-16.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 06:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate72.6%Closing EV estimate−11.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−13.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate−16.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate29.9%Closing EV estimate−17.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate19.3%Closing EV estimate−22.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance43.0%EV-18.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate72.6%Closing EV estimate−15.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−16.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate−18.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate29.9%Closing EV estimate−19.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate19.3%Closing EV estimate−19.0%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.20
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance43.0%EV-5.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 08:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate85.4%Closing EV estimate−8.6%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate72.6%Closing EV estimate−9.2%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−9.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 13:13: over 5.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 22:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · NEC Nijmegen total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 14−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds1.85
Odds down−0.02
Model chance at recommendation
57.8%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.73
Expected value at recommendation
+8.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +8.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 138 settled picksand +2.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
    At recommendation1.87
    Closing odds1.85
    Odds down−0.02
    Model chance57.8%EV+8.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+4.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.48
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV-16.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 02:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate34.9%Closing EV estimate−25.0%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate45.6%Closing EV estimate−17.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate−16.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate66.3%Closing EV estimate+16.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+11.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.55
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV-12.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 03:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate25.0%Closing EV estimate−17.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate34.9%Closing EV estimate−19.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate45.6%Closing EV estimate−13.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate−12.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate66.3%Closing EV estimate−10.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.55
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV-12.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate34.9%Closing EV estimate−19.7%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate45.6%Closing EV estimate−15.6%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate−12.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 00:42: under 12.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 11:52. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Levski Sofia total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 8.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds2.02
Odds up+0.12
Model chance at recommendation
61.7%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.63
Expected value at recommendation
+17.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 61.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.63. Expected value at recommendation: +17.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 81 settled picksand +12.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
    At recommendation1.90
    Closing odds2.02
    Odds up+0.12
    Model chance61.7%EV+17.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate+24.6%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance61.7%EV-7.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 02:13

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate39.3%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate71.5%Closing EV estimate+82.2%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate79.7%Closing EV estimate+59.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate86.2%Closing EV estimate+38.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+26.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance61.7%EV-7.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 03:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate39.3%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance61.7%EV-7.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate39.3%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 08:25: under 8.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 2+1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.91
Odds down−0.09
Model chance at recommendation
50.9%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.97
Expected value at recommendation
+1.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds1.91
    Odds down−0.09
    Model chance50.9%EV+1.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 10:20

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds10.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate−23.5%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate27.3%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin5.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin5.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin2.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.96
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.6%EV+3.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds13.50Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate27.3%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.96Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin0.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin0.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin1.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin0.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin0.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.6%EV-8.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate−46.4%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate27.3%Closing EV estimate−15.3%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate−8.0%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.6%EV-8.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate−46.4%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate27.3%Closing EV estimate−15.3%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate−8.0%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.6%EV-8.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate−46.4%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate27.3%Closing EV estimate−15.3%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate−8.0%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 123.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 124.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 125.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 128.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 135.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.6%EV-2.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 08:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds10.00Closing chance estimate7.7%Closing EV estimate−23.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate27.3%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate88.2%Closing EV estimate−5.6%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate95.3%Closing EV estimate−3.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • PinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.89
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance52.6%EV-0.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.89Closing chance estimate52.6%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin3.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 00:06: under 2.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 10:33. The original pick remains in the results.

Result corrected: Provider full-time score differs from the originally recorded goal result.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 2+1.00u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.60
Odds down−0.40
Model chance at recommendation
71.4%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.41
Expected value at recommendation
+42.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 71.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.41. Expected value at recommendation: +42.8%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 95 settled picksand +2.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds1.60
    Odds down−0.40
    Model chance71.4%EV+42.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 02:13

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate51.5%Closing EV estimate+23.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance71.9%EV+7.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 03:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate+24.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate51.5%Closing EV estimate+13.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate93.4%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance71.9%EV+7.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds8.30Closing chance estimate8.1%Closing EV estimate−32.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate51.5%Closing EV estimate+13.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate93.4%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 01:12: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · NEC Nijmegen total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 1+1.75u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds2.05
Odds down−0.70
Model chance at recommendation
58.8%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.71
Expected value at recommendation
+61.6%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +61.6%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 62 settled picksand +20.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.75
    Closing odds2.05
    Odds down−0.70
    Model chance58.8%EV+61.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 02:13

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate59.2%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate82.5%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation1.95
    Closing odds1.95
    Unchanged
    Model chance58.8%EV+14.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 03:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate25.5%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate59.2%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate82.5%Closing EV estimate+7.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.00
    Unchanged
    Model chance58.8%EV+17.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate59.2%Closing EV estimate+18.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate82.5%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate93.8%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 01:12: under 1.5 at 2.75 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 24.5Actual: 26+0.92u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds1.44
Odds down−0.48
Model chance at recommendation
54.0%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.86
Expected value at recommendation
+3.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +3.8%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 262 settled picksand +12.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 24.5
    At recommendation1.92
    Closing odds1.44
    Odds down−0.48
    Model chance54.0%EV+3.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 20.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate−9.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 21.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−9.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate−24.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate−27.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate49.1%Closing EV estimate−29.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate42.6%Closing EV estimate−31.8%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate36.4%Closing EV estimate−33.8%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate30.5%Closing EV estimate−35.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate25.2%Closing EV estimate−38.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate−41.0%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate16.2%Closing EV estimate−44.2%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance49.1%EV-11.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:57

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 21.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−12.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate−13.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate49.1%Closing EV estimate−11.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate42.6%Closing EV estimate−14.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate36.4%Closing EV estimate−14.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate30.5%Closing EV estimate−14.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate25.2%Closing EV estimate−56.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate20.4%Closing EV estimate−60.3%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate16.2%Closing EV estimate−63.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 31.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate12.6%Closing EV estimate−66.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 32.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance49.1%EV-11.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 21.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−12.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate−13.0%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate−10.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate49.1%Closing EV estimate−11.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate42.6%Closing EV estimate−14.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate36.4%Closing EV estimate−16.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate30.5%Closing EV estimate−13.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 24.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance49.1%EV-11.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 21.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate68.4%Closing EV estimate−10.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate62.2%Closing EV estimate−13.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate55.7%Closing EV estimate−10.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate49.1%Closing EV estimate−11.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate42.6%Closing EV estimate−12.6%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate36.4%Closing EV estimate−12.7%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate30.5%Closing EV estimate−13.0%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 06:18: over 24.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · NEC Nijmegen total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 18+0.84u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.84
Closing odds1.50
Odds down−0.34
Model chance at recommendation
55.6%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.80
Expected value at recommendation
+2.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +2.3%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 172 settled picksand +10.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
    At recommendation1.84
    Closing odds1.50
    Odds down−0.34
    Model chance55.6%EV+2.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate−10.1%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate−21.9%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate−19.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.48
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV-20.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:57

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate−16.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate−20.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate−19.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate−21.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate24.4%Closing EV estimate−66.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate18.7%Closing EV estimate−70.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate14.0%Closing EV estimate−74.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate10.1%Closing EV estimate−78.3%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 20.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate7.1%Closing EV estimate−81.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV-13.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate69.8%Closing EV estimate−9.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate−16.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate−12.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate−12.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.28
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV-30.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate69.8%Closing EV estimate−14.2%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate−23.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.28Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate−30.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate−34.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds1.61Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate−38.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−43.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate24.4%Closing EV estimate−47.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate18.7%Closing EV estimate−52.2%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate14.0%Closing EV estimate−58.8%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 04:00: over 12.5 at 1.84 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 04:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 8.5Actual: 11+0.87u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds1.85
Odds down−0.02
Model chance at recommendation
56.6%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.77
Expected value at recommendation
+5.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +5.9%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 57 settled picksand +2.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 8.5
    At recommendation1.95
    Closing odds1.95
    Unchanged
    Model chance54.3%EV+5.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 03:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate39.6%Closing EV estimate−3.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 8.5
    At recommendation1.87
    Closing odds1.85
    Odds down−0.02
    Model chance56.6%EV+5.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate−5.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.43Closing chance estimate39.6%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance51.6%EV+16.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 02:13

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+16.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate39.6%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate−44.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate19.7%Closing EV estimate−50.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance51.6%EV-1.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate39.6%Closing EV estimate−3.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds4.85Closing chance estimate19.7%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance51.6%EV+8.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:48

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate91.8%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate51.6%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate39.6%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate28.7%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds5.30Closing chance estimate19.7%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds7.30Closing chance estimate12.8%Closing EV estimate−6.7%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:32: over 8.5 at 1.87 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 15:53. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return+64.6%ROI · 10 units staked
Profit+6.46units
W / L8 / 2picks
Avg odds2.02settled picks
Recorded picks101 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Europa LeagueHome teamNEC NijmegenAway teamLevski SofiaRefereeAliyar Aghayev
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