Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield 2-0 — Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Liga Profesional de FútbolPrimera LPF 2026

Lanús

2–0

HT 0–0

Vélez Sarsfield

Mon 12 Oct·13:00·Matchday 12·Estadio Ciudad de Lanus·Lanús won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

4Corners6
2Cards · Result conflict3
16Shots10
6Shots on target3
8Fouls13
23Throw-ins19
4Offsides0
3Goal kicks7
3Saves5
24Tackles15
11Interceptions10
5Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00LanúsvVélez SarsfieldLiga Profesional de Fútbol2 won / 4 lost · −2.00u · 6 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0511 Oct, 16:03

Closing odds2.0212 Oct, 08:40

Odds down−0.03

Model chance at recommendation: 50.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds2.02
Odds down−0.03
Model chance50.1%EV+2.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 08:40
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate31.6%Closing EV estimate−36.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 08:40
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-27.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 22:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate16.8%Closing EV estimate−40.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:00
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate31.6%Closing EV estimate−27.3%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:00
- under 5.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate−19.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:00
- under 6.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate65.6%Closing EV estimate−14.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:00
- under 7.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate79.0%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:00
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-27.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 22:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate16.8%Closing EV estimate−40.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate31.6%Closing EV estimate−27.3%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
- under 5.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate−19.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
- under 6.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate65.6%Closing EV estimate−14.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
- under 7.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate79.0%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-36.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 08:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate31.6%Closing EV estimate−36.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 08:33
- under 5.5odds1.56Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate−23.6%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 08:33
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-27.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 22:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate16.8%Closing EV estimate−40.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate31.6%Closing EV estimate−27.3%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
- under 5.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate−19.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
- under 6.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate65.6%Closing EV estimate−14.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
- under 7.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate79.0%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:01
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.32
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-26.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 10:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate0.3%Closing EV estimate−99.7%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:02
- under 3.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate16.8%Closing EV estimate−49.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:32
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.32Closing chance estimate31.6%Closing EV estimate−26.7%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- under 5.5odds1.72Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate−15.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
- under 6.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate65.6%Closing EV estimate−10.2%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 16:03: under 4.5 at 2.05 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 16:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · Vélez Sarsfield total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0011 Oct, 06:06

Closing odds1.9212 Oct, 10:02

Odds down−0.08

Model chance at recommendation: 54.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +8.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +8.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.92
Odds down−0.08
Model chance54.1%EV+8.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 10:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate2.5%Closing EV estimate−97.2%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 22:02
- under 2.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate35.9%Closing EV estimate−31.0%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.9%EV-37.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 05:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate35.9%Closing EV estimate−37.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:01
- under 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate−19.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 05:01
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.9%EV-35.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate13.8%Closing EV estimate−57.2%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:31
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate35.9%Closing EV estimate−35.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:31
- under 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate−19.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:31
KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.9%EV-37.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate35.9%Closing EV estimate−37.8%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 06:06: under 2.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 13:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 8.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.007 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +9.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +9.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+9.4%
BetliveAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.95
Odds up+0.05
Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 09:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate14.5%Closing EV estimate−16.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 6.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate−18.2%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:32
- under 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:32
- under 8.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate47.9%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:32
- under 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:32
- under 10.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:32
- under 11.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate−9.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 12.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate−8.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 13.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate91.5%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:01
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.95
Odds up+0.05
Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate−18.2%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:01
- under 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:01
- under 8.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate47.9%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:01
- under 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:01
- under 10.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:01
- under 11.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:31
KambiAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.06
Odds up+0.06
Model chance54.7%EV+9.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds5.60Closing chance estimate14.5%Closing EV estimate−18.9%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- under 6.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate−8.6%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 08:33
- under 7.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 08:33
- under 8.5odds2.06Closing chance estimate47.9%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- under 9.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 08:33
- under 10.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- under 11.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:33
- under 12.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:33
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.95
Odds up+0.05
Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 08:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate−18.2%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:33
- under 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:33
- under 8.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate47.9%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:33
- under 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:33
- under 10.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:33
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.9%EV-0.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 08:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds14.00Closing chance estimate3.2%Closing EV estimate−54.7%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:15
- under 4.5odds8.30Closing chance estimate7.5%Closing EV estimate−37.5%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 5.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate14.5%Closing EV estimate−21.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 6.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate−11.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 7.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate35.6%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.07Closing chance estimate47.9%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 9.5odds1.69Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 10.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate70.7%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 11.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 12.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 13.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate91.5%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 14.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate94.9%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 8.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Lanús total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 4+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.007 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds2.1011 Oct, 16:02

Odds up+0.10

Model chance at recommendation: 51.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.10
Odds up+0.10
Model chance51.2%EV+2.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 16:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 16:02
BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.20
Odds up+0.10
Model chance50.8%EV+6.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:50
BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds2.05
Odds down−0.10
Model chance50.8%EV+9.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 09:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:01
- under 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:01
- under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate−7.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:01
- under 6.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate−9.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 7.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:01
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds2.05
Odds down−0.10
Model chance50.8%EV+9.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 09:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate−7.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 6.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate−11.4%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
- under 7.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate−12.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 09:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV+0.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:31
- under 5.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:31
- under 6.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate−8.5%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 02:31
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV+1.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:33
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.12Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- under 5.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
- under 6.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:33
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV+5.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 12:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds9.90Closing chance estimate8.9%Closing EV estimate−12.1%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 08:34
- under 2.5odds5.45Closing chance estimate19.8%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- under 3.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- under 5.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate61.4%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- under 6.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate73.2%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- under 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02
- under 8.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 12:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 4.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Vélez Sarsfield total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8512 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds1.8712 Oct, 10:02

Odds up+0.02

Model chance at recommendation: 54.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +0.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +0.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.87
Odds up+0.02
Model chance54.2%EV+0.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 10:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds1.87Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:02
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-9.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 04:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 11.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate39.6%Closing EV estimate−16.7%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate−9.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01
- under 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate60.7%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:01

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 00:06: under 12.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 02:41. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 4+1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 03:03

Closing odds2.0012 Oct, 03:01

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 53.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +7.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +7.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance53.5%EV+7.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 03:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate72.1%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate51.4%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- over 4.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate32.1%Closing EV estimate−5.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 03:03: over 3.5 at 2.00 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−33.3%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit−2.00units

W / L2 / 4picks

Avg odds1.98settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol Home teamLanús Away teamVélez Sarsfield RefereeSebastian Nicolas Martinez

Match overview

Matches

Cards · match total

Cards · Vélez Sarsfield total

Corners · match total

Corners · Lanús total

Fouls · Vélez Sarsfield total

Offsides · match total

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