Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield 2-0 — Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Liga Profesional de FútbolPrimera LPF 2026

Lanús

2–0

HT 0–0

Vélez Sarsfield

Mon 12 Oct·13:00·Matchday 12·Estadio Ciudad de Lanus·Lanús won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

4Corners6
2Cards3
16Shots10
6Shots on target3
8Fouls13
23Throw-ins19
4Offsides0
3Goal kicks7
3Saves5
24Tackles15
11Interceptions10
5Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available5Recorded Free1Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00LanúsvVélez SarsfieldLiga Profesional de Fútbol2 won / 4 lost · −2.00u · 6 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0511 Oct, 16:03

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.1%EV+2.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-27.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-27.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-36.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-27.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.32
No saved recommendation
Model chance31.6%EV-26.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 16:03: under 4.5 at 2.05 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 16:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · Vélez Sarsfield total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0011 Oct, 06:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +8.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +8.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.1%EV+8.2%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.9%EV-37.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.9%EV-35.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.9%EV-37.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 06:06: under 2.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 13:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 8.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.007 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +9.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +9.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+9.4%
BetliveAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+9.4%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.9%EV-0.8%
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 8.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Lanús total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 4+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.007 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.2%EV+2.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.8%EV+6.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.8%EV+9.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.8%EV+9.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV+0.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV+1.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.8%EV+5.2%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 4.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Vélez Sarsfield total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8512 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +0.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +0.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.2%EV+0.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-9.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 00:06: under 12.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 02:41. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 4+1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 03:03

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +7.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +7.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.5%EV+7.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 03:03: over 3.5 at 2.00 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−33.3%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit−2.00units

W / L2 / 4picks

Avg odds1.98settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol Home teamLanús Away teamVélez Sarsfield RefereeSebastian Nicolas Martinez

Match overview

Matches

Cards · match total

Cards · Vélez Sarsfield total

Corners · match total

Corners · Lanús total

Fouls · Vélez Sarsfield total

Offsides · match total

This match

Around this match

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