Flamengo vs Fluminense 1-0 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Flamengo

1–0

HT 0–0

Fluminense

Sun 11 Oct·14:30·Matchday 30·Estádio do Maracanã·Flamengo won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

4Corners2
3Cards4
17Shots11
6Shots on target3
21Fouls18
10Throw-ins21
6Goal kicks13
3Saves5
18Tackles20
10Interceptions8
2Dribbles8

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta · Virtual simulation

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Board

Matches

1 match

14:30FlamengovFluminenseBrasileirão Série A2 won / 3 lost · −1.09u · 5 picks

Cards · Fluminense total

Open match →FreeLost

under 2.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.129 Oct, 14:47

Closing odds2.3011 Oct, 13:33

Odds up+0.18

Model chance at recommendation: 53.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.88
Expected value at recommendation: +13.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +13.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.60
Closing odds2.60
Unchanged
Model chance51.1%EV+32.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 02:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.60Closing chance estimate51.1%Closing EV estimate+32.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 3odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.3%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 3.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+20.3%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 4odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin14.0%Model unavailableCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
- under 4.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 02:31
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.70
Closing odds2.60
Odds down−0.10
Model chance51.1%EV+38.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 09:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate51.1%Closing EV estimate+32.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:02
- under 3.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+20.3%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:02
- under 4.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 09:02
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds2.30
Odds up+0.18
Model chance53.4%EV+13.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 14:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate51.1%Closing EV estimate+17.4%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:33
- under 3.5odds1.56Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:03
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.72
Closing odds2.67
Odds down−0.05
Model chance54.9%EV+49.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 11:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate7.2%Closing EV estimate−91.9%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:34
- under 2.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate51.1%Closing EV estimate+36.3%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:32
- under 3.5odds1.72Closing chance estimate72.9%Closing EV estimate+25.4%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:32
- under 4.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 11:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 14:47: under 2.5 at 2.12 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Flamengo total

Open match →FreeWon

under 6.5Actual: 4+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9111 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds1.919 Oct, 14:50

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 54.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +3.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +3.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds1.91
Unchanged
Model chance54.2%EV+3.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 14:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:50
BetliveAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.75
Odds down−0.10
Model chance54.2%EV+0.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 03:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate26.2%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:01
- under 5.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate41.2%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:01
- under 6.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:31
- under 7.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate70.5%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:31
- under 8.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:01
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.75
Odds down−0.15
Model chance54.2%EV+2.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 12:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate26.2%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 12:31
- under 5.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate41.2%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 12:31
- under 6.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 12:31
- under 7.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate70.5%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 12:31
- under 8.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 12:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.7%EV-0.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 05:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate41.2%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 05:32
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 05:32
- under 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate70.5%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 05:32
KambiClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.72
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.7%EV-2.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 14:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate13.9%Closing EV estimate−34.7%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:41
- under 4.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate26.2%Closing EV estimate−18.7%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:41
- under 5.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate41.2%Closing EV estimate−9.3%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:03
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.72Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:03
- under 7.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate70.5%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:03
- under 8.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate+2.5%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:41
- under 9.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:03
- under 10.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:22
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.7%EV+8.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 15:06
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds23.00Closing chance estimate1.6%Closing EV estimate−62.5%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 15:06
- under 2.5odds10.00Closing chance estimate5.7%Closing EV estimate−42.6%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 15:06
- under 3.5odds5.85Closing chance estimate13.9%Closing EV estimate−18.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:38
- under 4.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate26.2%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:02
- under 5.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate41.2%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:02
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.92Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate+8.9%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:02
- under 7.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate70.5%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 09:02
- under 8.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:38
- under 9.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 14:38
- under 10.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate93.9%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 15:06
- under 11.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate96.9%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 15:06

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 00:06: under 6.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPLost

under 26.5Actual: 39−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8510 Oct, 14:27

Closing odds2.1011 Oct, 14:02

Odds up+0.25

Model chance at recommendation: 68.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.46
Expected value at recommendation: +26.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 68.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.46. Expected value at recommendation: +26.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 26.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds2.10
Odds up+0.25
Model chance68.6%EV+26.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 14:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 25.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate66.2%Closing EV estimate+45.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:03
- under 26.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate72.6%Closing EV estimate+52.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02
- under 27.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+43.1%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02
- under 28.5odds1.62Closing chance estimate83.0%Closing EV estimate+34.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 14:27: under 26.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 02:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Fluminense total

Open match →FreeLost

under 13.5Actual: 18−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0211 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds2.0211 Oct, 12:32

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 76.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.31
Expected value at recommendation: +54.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 76.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.31. Expected value at recommendation: +54.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 13.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds2.02
Unchanged
Model chance76.4%EV+54.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 14:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds2.47Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+64.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 03:34
- under 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+53.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 12:32
- under 14.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+52.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02
- under 15.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 07:34

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 00:06: under 13.5 at 2.02 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Flamengo total

Open match →VIPWon

under 17.5Actual: 17+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0011 Oct, 03:56

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.90
Expected value at recommendation: +5.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +5.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 17.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.8%EV+5.5%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.71
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV-6.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 13:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.71Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:55
KambiClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.71
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV-6.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 14:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 16.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate45.8%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 13:33
- under 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.71Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:03
- under 18.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:03
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV+12.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 14:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 15.5odds2.92Closing chance estimate36.8%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02
- under 16.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate45.8%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02
- under 17.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate+12.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02
- under 18.5odds1.77Closing chance estimate63.4%Closing EV estimate+12.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02
- under 19.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate71.3%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02
- under 20.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate78.1%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02
- under 21.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate83.7%Closing EV estimate+9.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 14:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:56: under 17.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 12:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−21.8%ROI · 5 units staked

Profit−1.09units

W / L2 / 3picks

Avg odds1.98settled picks

Recorded picks51 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamFlamengo Away teamFluminense RefereeRafael Rodrigo Klein

Matches

Cards · Fluminense total

Corners · Flamengo total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · Fluminense total

Shots · Flamengo total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings