Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

All-time unified results

3,061Distinct matches

601,645Observed outcomes

525,110 / 76,535Priced / missing

123,857EV bets3,506 Pending

−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI

0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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October 2026

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Month: 57,083 EV bets · −2906.75u · −5.1% ROI · 3506 Pending

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

18 Oct 2026

5,390 EV bets · +718.76u · +13.3% ROI26,224 observations · 22,298 priced · 3,926 missing · W 2259 / L 2983 / P 148

All observed outcomes Positive EV only Cell benchmarks →

Match / cell	Average odds	Model probability	Estimated EV	Actual / return
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Away team · Over 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.280 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.250 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.270	1.2754 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Away team · Over 1 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.550	1.5501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Away team · Over 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.250 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.350 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.370	2.3174 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Away team · Over 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 4.800	4.8001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Away team · Under 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.800 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.950 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 3.050 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.150	2.9874 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Away team · Under 1 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.050	2.0501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Away team · Under 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.450 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.400 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.530 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.490	1.4684 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Away team · Under 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.110	1.1101 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.040	1.0401 bookmakers	92.1%	−4.2%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.040 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.050 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.040	1.0433 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.290	1.2901 bookmakers	73.7%	−4.9%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.310 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.290 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.300 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.320	1.3045 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 2 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.400	1.4001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.8501 bookmakers	51.0%	−5.7%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.900 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.850 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.850 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.850 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.950	1.8805 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 3 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.450	2.4501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 3.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.900	2.9001 bookmakers	30.9%	−10.4%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 3.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.900 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.950 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.850 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.000	2.9254 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 4.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 4.600	4.6001 bookmakers	16.7%	−23.1%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Over 4.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 4.600 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 4.700 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 4.800	4.7003 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 5.400	5.4001 bookmakers	7.9%	−57.4%Inventory only	0 / +4.40u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 5.400 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 5.400 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 5.000	5.2673 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.750	2.7501 bookmakers	26.3%	−27.8%Inventory only	0 / +1.75u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 3.000 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.750 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.700 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 3.050 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.870	2.8745 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 2 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.350	2.3501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.700	1.7001 bookmakers	49.0%	−16.7%Inventory only	0 / +0.70u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.770 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.700 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.650 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.820 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.770	1.7425 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 3 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.370	1.3701 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 3.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.260	1.2601 bookmakers	69.1%	−12.9%Inventory only	0 / +0.26u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 3.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.260 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.250 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.350 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.300	1.2904 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 4.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.080	1.0801 bookmakers	83.3%	−10.1%Inventory only	0 / +0.08u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Match total · Under 4.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.080 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.080 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.110	1.0903 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Home team · Over 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.280 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.250 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.290	1.2804 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Home team · Over 1 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.550	1.5501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Home team · Over 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.250 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.350 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.420	2.3304 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Home team · Over 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 4.900	4.9001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Home team · Under 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.800 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.950 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 3.050 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.050	2.9624 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Home team · Under 1 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.050	2.0501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Home team · Under 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.450 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.400 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.530 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.470	1.4624 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCards · Home team · Under 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.100	1.1001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Over 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.090	1.0901 bookmakers	88.2%	−3.8%Inventory only	6 / +0.09u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Over 3.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.160 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.180 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.280 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.140 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.250	1.2025 bookmakers	77.7%	−6.7%Inventory only	6 / +0.20u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Over 4.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.420 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.400 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.550 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.400 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.520	1.4585 bookmakers	64.9%	−5.3%Inventory only	6 / +0.46u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Over 5.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.833 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.850 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.800 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.000 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.800 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.950	1.8726 bookmakers	51.7%	−3.3%Inventory only	6 / +0.87u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Over 6.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.500 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.500 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.650 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.500 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.600	2.5505 bookmakers	39.3%	+0.1%EV bet	6 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Over 7.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 3.800 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 3.750 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 3.650 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.800 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.600	3.7205 bookmakers	28.6%	+6.4%EV bet	6 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Over 8.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 5.000 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 5.100	5.0502 bookmakers	20.1%	+1.3%EV bet	6 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Under 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 6.000	6.0001 bookmakers	11.8%	−29.4%Inventory only	6 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Under 3.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 3.850 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.400 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 3.300 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 4.000 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.550	3.6205 bookmakers	22.3%	−19.1%Inventory only	6 / −1.00u
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesCorners · Away team · Under 4.5 Eredivisie · 2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-16 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-18 09:15:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.400 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.350 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.250 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.400 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.370	2.3545 bookmakers	35.1%	−17.4%Inventory only	6 / −1.00u

Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

Unified-model historical results

October 2026

18 Oct 2026

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