Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

All-time unified results

3,043Distinct matches

596,316Observed outcomes

520,083 / 76,233Priced / missing

123,857EV bets2,469 Pending

−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI

0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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October 2026

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Month: 57,083 EV bets · −2906.75u · −5.1% ROI · 2469 Pending

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

10 Oct 2026

8,323 EV bets · −915.85u · −11.0% ROI38,017 observations · 33,946 priced · 4,071 missing · W 3432 / L 4668 / P 223

All observed outcomes Positive EV only Cell benchmarks →

Match / cell	Average odds	Model probability	Estimated EV	Actual / return
Orenburg – Dinamo MakhachkalaGoals · Match total · Over 2 Russian Premier League · 2026-10-10T10:00:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-09 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-10 09:00:00+00:00 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.571	1.5711 bookmakers	41.0%	−30.0%Inventory only	4 / +0.57u
Orenburg – Dinamo MakhachkalaGoals · Match total · Over 2.25 Russian Premier League · 2026-10-10T10:00:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-09 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-10 09:00:00+00:00 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.877	1.8771 bookmakers	37.5%	−27.3%Inventory only	4 / +0.88u
Orenburg – Dinamo MakhachkalaGoals · Match total · Over 2.5 Russian Premier League · 2026-10-10T10:00:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-09 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-10 09:00:00+00:00 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.140	2.1401 bookmakers	34.6%	−26.1%Inventory only	4 / +1.14u
Orenburg – Dinamo MakhachkalaGoals · Match total · Under 2 Russian Premier League · 2026-10-10T10:00:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-09 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-10 09:00:00+00:00 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.460	2.4601 bookmakers	59.0%	+38.1%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
Orenburg – Dinamo MakhachkalaGoals · Match total · Under 2.25 Russian Premier League · 2026-10-10T10:00:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-09 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-10 09:00:00+00:00 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.000	2.0001 bookmakers	62.5%	+23.1%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
Orenburg – Dinamo MakhachkalaGoals · Match total · Under 2.5 Russian Premier League · 2026-10-10T10:00:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-09 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-10 09:00:00+00:00 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.740	1.7401 bookmakers	65.4%	+13.9%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Over 0.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 5.350	5.3501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Over 1.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.240	1.2401 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Over 1.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.220 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 17.000	9.1102 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Over 2.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.8501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Over 2.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.700 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.830	1.7652 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Over 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.300	3.3001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Over 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.700	2.7001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Under 0.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.090	1.0901 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Under 1.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.100	3.1001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Under 1.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.100	3.1001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Under 2.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.700	1.7001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Under 2.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.800 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.870	1.8352 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Under 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.210	1.2101 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Away team · Under 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.300	1.3001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 0.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.700	3.7001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 1.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 12.000	12.0001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 2.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.070	1.0701 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.300	1.3001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.220 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.330	1.2752 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 4.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.700	1.7001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 4.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.550 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.730	1.6402 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 5.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.500	2.5001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 5.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.100 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.350	2.2252 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 6.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.900	3.9001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 6.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.100	3.1001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Over 7.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 6.650	6.6501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 0.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.230	1.2301 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 2.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 5.200	5.2001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.800	2.8001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.100 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.820	2.9602 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 4.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.800	1.8001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 4.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.000 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.970	1.9852 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 5.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.380	1.3801 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 5.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.500 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.500	1.5002 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 6.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.150	1.1501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 6.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.220	1.2201 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Match total · Under 7.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.020	1.0201 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Home team · Over 0.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 6.200	6.2001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Home team · Over 1.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.400	1.4001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Home team · Over 1.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.400 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 18.000	9.7002 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Home team · Over 2.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.450	2.4501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Home team · Over 2.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.200 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.350	2.2752 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Home team · Over 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 5.200	5.2001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Gençlerbirliği – Amed Sportif FaaliyetlerCards · Home team · Over 3.5 Trendyol Süper Lig · 2026-10-10T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 4.000	4.0001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —

Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

Unified-model historical results

October 2026

10 Oct 2026

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