Unified-model historical results
Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.
From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.
Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.
All-time unified results
3,007Distinct matches
584,208Observed outcomes
508,650 / 75,558Priced / missing
123,857EV bets
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes
EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.
Month: 57,083 EV bets · −2906.75u · −5.1% ROI
Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.
MonTueWedThuFriSatSun1−7.1%1388 bets2+6.8%1881 bets3+11.7%1678 bets4−8.6%1957 bets5−13.0%1627 bets6−9.3%1967 bets7−15.2%337 bets8−14.2%407 bets9−14.1%1978 bets10−11.0%8323 bets11−3.4%5831 bets12+2.6%1909 bets13−13.8%2310 bets14+10.8%3074 bets15−14.1%5929 bets16−9.5%2343 bets17−9.0%8754 bets18+13.3%5390 bets19No replay yet20No replay yet21No replay yet
8 Oct 2026
407 EV bets · −57.88u · −14.2% ROI1,933 observations · 1,705 priced · 228 missing · W 171 / L 230 / P 6
| Match / cell | Average odds | Model probability | Estimated EV | Actual / return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Over 0.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 6.3001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Over 1.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 1.3001 bookmakers | 54.7% | −28.9%Inventory only | 4 / +0.30u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Over 1.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3803 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Over 2Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.8501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Over 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 1.8501 bookmakers | 27.3% | −49.5%Inventory only | 4 / +0.85u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Over 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.1403 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Over 3.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 3.2752 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Under 0.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.0601 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Under 1.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 2.7001 bookmakers | 45.3% | +22.2%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Under 1.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.5733 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Under 2Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.6501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Under 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 1.6501 bookmakers | 72.7% | +19.9%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Under 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5573 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Away team · Under 3.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2352 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 0.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 4.5001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2002 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 3Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 3.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 1.4501 bookmakers | 45.2% | −34.5%Inventory only | 5 / +0.45u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 3.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5425 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 4Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.8501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 4.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 1.8001 bookmakers | 28.1% | −49.4%Inventory only | 5 / +0.80u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 4.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.1005 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.9501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 5.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 2.5001 bookmakers | 15.9% | −60.3%Inventory only | 5 / −1.00u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 5.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.5852 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Over 6.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 4.1501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 0.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.1701 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 3.5502 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 3Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.7001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 3.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 2.2501 bookmakers | 54.8% | +23.4%EV bet | 5 / −1.00u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 3.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.1725 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 4Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.6501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 4.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 1.7001 bookmakers | 71.9% | +22.3%EV bet | 5 / −1.00u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 4.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5845 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 5.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 1.3501 bookmakers | 84.1% | +13.6%EV bet | 5 / +0.35u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 5.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3802 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Match total · Under 6.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.1701 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Over 0.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.0801 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Over 1.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 1.5001 bookmakers | 50.1% | −24.8%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Over 1.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.4973 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Over 2Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.0501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Over 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 2.3501 bookmakers | 23.2% | −45.6%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Over 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.4673 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Under 0.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 5.6501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Under 1.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 2.1001 bookmakers | 49.9% | +4.7%EV bet | 1 / +1.10u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Under 1.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.2403 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Under 2Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Under 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-08 16:30:00+00:00
| 1.4001 bookmakers | 76.8% | +7.6%EV bet | 1 / +0.40u |
CFR 1907 Cluj – FC Universitatea ClujCards · Home team · Under 2.5Romanian Super Liga · 2026-10-08T17:30:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.4003 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Backtest method and coverage
Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.
The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.
- Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
- Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
- Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
- This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
- Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.
Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00