Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

All-time unified results

3,061Distinct matches

601,633Observed outcomes

525,098 / 76,535Priced / missing

123,857EV bets3,555 Pending

−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI

0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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October 2026

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Month: 57,083 EV bets · −2906.75u · −5.1% ROI · 3555 Pending

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

7 Oct 2026

337 EV bets · −51.10u · −15.2% ROI2,421 observations · 2,110 priced · 311 missing · W 161 / L 169 / P 7

All observed outcomes Positive EV only Cell benchmarks →

Match / cell	Average odds	Model probability	Estimated EV	Actual / return
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Over 0.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 6.100	6.1001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Over 1.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.330 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.330 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.370 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.400	1.3574 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Over 2 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.550	1.5501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Over 2.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.050 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.000 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.040 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.220	2.0784 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Over 3 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.800	2.8001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Over 3.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.400 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 3.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.850	3.5173 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Under 0.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.070	1.0701 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Under 1.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.600 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.600 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.750 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.670	2.6554 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Under 2 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.050	2.0501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Under 2.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.550 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.550 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.670 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.590	1.5904 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Under 3 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.280	1.2801 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Away team · Under 3.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.180 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.270 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.200	1.2173 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 0.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 4.200	4.2001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 1.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 12.000	12.0001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 2.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.160	1.1601 bookmakers	81.4%	−5.6%Inventory only	2 / −1.00u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 2.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.160 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.160 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.100 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.210	1.1574 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 3 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.200	1.2001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 3.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.450	1.4501 bookmakers	65.1%	−5.6%Inventory only	2 / −1.00u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 3.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.440 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.440 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.440 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.440 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.364 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.530	1.4426 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 4 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.600	1.6001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 4.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.950	1.9501 bookmakers	47.4%	−7.6%Inventory only	2 / −1.00u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 4.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.100 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.950 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.950 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.900 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.950 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.100	1.9926 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.450	2.4501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 5.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.850	2.8501 bookmakers	31.4%	−10.5%Inventory only	2 / −1.00u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 5.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.850 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.850 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.650 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.950	2.8254 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 6.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 4.300	4.3001 bookmakers	19.1%	−17.9%Inventory only	2 / −1.00u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Over 6.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 4.300 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 4.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 4.400	4.3333 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 0.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.190	1.1901 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 2.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.600	3.6001 bookmakers	18.6%	−33.0%Inventory only	2 / +2.60u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 2.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 3.600 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.600 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 5.500 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.750	4.1124 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 3 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 3.300	3.3001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 3.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.250	2.2501 bookmakers	34.9%	−21.5%Inventory only	2 / +1.25u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 3.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 2.450 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.250 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.250 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.450 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 2.800 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.350	2.4256 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 4 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.950	1.9501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 4.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.600	1.6001 bookmakers	52.6%	−15.8%Inventory only	2 / +0.60u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 4.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.667 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.600 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.600 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.750 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.727 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.670	1.6696 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.370	1.3701 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 5.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.260	1.2601 bookmakers	68.6%	−13.6%Inventory only	2 / +0.26u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 5.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.260 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.260 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.380 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.330	1.3084 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 6.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.100	1.1001 bookmakers	80.9%	−11.0%Inventory only	2 / +0.10u
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Match total · Under 6.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.100 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.100 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.150	1.1173 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Home team · Over 0.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.090	1.0901 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Home team · Over 1.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.500 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.500 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.530 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.580	1.5284 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Home team · Over 2 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.950	1.9501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Home team · Over 2.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.500 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.500 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.450 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.670	2.5304 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Home team · Under 0.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 5.400	5.4001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Home team · Under 1.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.100 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.100 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.250	2.1884 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Home team · Under 2 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.600	1.6001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCards · Home team · Under 2.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.350 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.350 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.460 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.400	1.3904 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolCorners · Away team · Over 0.5 Brasileirão Série A · 2026-10-07T22:30:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-07 21:30:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.007	1.0071 bookmakers	97.7%	−1.7%Inventory only	3 / +0.01u

Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

Unified-model historical results

October 2026

7 Oct 2026

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