Unified-model historical results
Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.
From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.
Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.
Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.
All-time unified results
3,043Distinct matches
596,300Observed outcomes
520,067 / 76,233Priced / missing
123,857EV bets2,488 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes
EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.
Month: 57,083 EV bets · −2906.75u · −5.1% ROI · 2488 Pending
Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.
MonTueWedThuFriSatSun1−7.1%1388 bets2+6.8%1881 bets3+11.7%1678 bets4−8.6%1957 bets5−13.0%1627 bets6−9.3%1967 bets7−15.2%337 bets8−14.2%407 bets9−14.1%1978 bets10−11.0%8323 bets11−3.4%5831 bets12+2.6%1909 bets13−13.8%2310 bets14+10.8%3074 bets15−14.1%5929 bets16−9.5%2343 bets17−9.0%8754 bets18+13.3%5390 bets19No replay yet20No replay yet21—0 bets1448 Pending
6 Oct 2026
1,967 EV bets · −182.50u · −9.3% ROI8,672 observations · 7,677 priced · 995 missing · W 909 / L 979 / P 79
| Match / cell | Average odds | Model probability | Estimated EV | Actual / return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Away team · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 4.5602 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Away team · Over 1International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Away team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.2501 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Away team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.0103 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Away team · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.0652 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Away team · Under 1International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.1001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Away team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.4501 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Away team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.6273 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 6.6001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2701 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2533 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 2International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3701 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.9001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.7945 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 3International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.3501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 3.3501 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.8173 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Over 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 6.9001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 8.6001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.0801 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.9501 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 3.0333 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 2International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.4501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.6501 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.7785 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 3International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.4001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2101 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2973 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Match total · Under 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.0201 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Home team · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3473 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Home team · Over 1International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Home team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.5001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Home team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.3002 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Home team · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.6673 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Home team · Under 1International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.0501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Home team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3801 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCards · Home team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.4252 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0201 bookmakers | 94.8% | −3.3%Inventory only | 5 / +0.02u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.1274 bookmakers | 82.0% | −7.5%Inventory only | 5 / +0.13u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.4685 bookmakers | 64.0% | −6.1%Inventory only | 5 / +0.47u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.0937 bookmakers | 45.2% | −5.5%Inventory only | 5 / +1.09u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Over 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 3.2545 bookmakers | 29.1% | −5.4%Inventory only | 5 / +2.25u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Over 5.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 5.6003 bookmakers | 17.2% | −3.6%Inventory only | 5 / −1.00u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Over 6.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 6.3001 bookmakers | 9.4% | −40.5%Inventory only | 5 / −1.00u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 12.0001 bookmakers | 5.2% | −38.2%Inventory only | 5 / −1.00u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 4.3504 bookmakers | 18.0% | −21.8%Inventory only | 5 / −1.00u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.3365 bookmakers | 36.0% | −15.8%Inventory only | 5 / −1.00u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.6087 bookmakers | 54.8% | −11.8%Inventory only | 5 / −1.00u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Under 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.2545 bookmakers | 70.9% | −11.1%Inventory only | 5 / −1.00u |
South Korea – UzbekistanCorners · Away team · Under 5.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-06T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-06 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0873 bookmakers | 82.8% | −10.0%Inventory only | 5 / +0.09u |
Backtest method and coverage
Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.
The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.
- Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
- Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
- Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
- This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
- Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.
Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00