Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

All-time unified results

3,043Distinct matches

596,316Observed outcomes

520,083 / 76,233Priced / missing

123,857EV bets2,469 Pending

−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI

0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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October 2026

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Month: 57,083 EV bets · −2906.75u · −5.1% ROI · 2469 Pending

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

5 Oct 2026

1,627 EV bets · −211.11u · −13.0% ROI8,162 observations · 7,225 priced · 937 missing · W 706 / L 853 / P 68

All observed outcomes Positive EV only Cell benchmarks →

Match / cell	Average odds	Model probability	Estimated EV	Actual / return
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Away team · Over 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.650	1.6501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Away team · Under 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.970	1.9701 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Over 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.025	1.0251 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.250	1.2501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Over 2 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.694	1.6941 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Over 2.25 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.010	2.0101 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Over 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.833 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.290	2.0622 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Over 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 3.700 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 3.200	3.4502 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Over 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 6.000	6.0001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Over 5.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 10.500	10.5001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Under 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 11.000	11.0001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 3.500	3.5001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Under 2 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.150	2.1501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Under 2.25 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.819	1.8191 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Under 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.833 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.613	1.7232 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Under 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.230 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.300	1.2652 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Under 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.111	1.1111 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Match total · Under 5.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.030	1.0301 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Home team · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.810	1.8101 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Ecuador – PanamaGoals · Home team · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T06:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.780	1.7801 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Away team · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.650 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.650	1.6502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Away team · Over 2 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.250	2.2501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Away team · Over 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.950 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.950	2.9502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Away team · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.850 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.8502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Away team · Under 2 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.450	1.4501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Away team · Under 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.250 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.250	1.2502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.250 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.250	1.2502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Over 2 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.400	1.4001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Over 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.800 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.800	1.8002 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Over 3 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.450	2.4501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Over 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.950 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.950	2.9502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.950 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.950	2.9502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Under 2 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.350	2.3501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Under 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.700 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.700	1.7002 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Under 3 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.370	1.3701 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Match total · Under 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.250 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.250	1.2502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Home team · Over 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.600 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.600	1.6002 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Home team · Over 1 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.600	2.6001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Home team · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.400	3.4001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Home team · Under 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.950 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.950	1.9502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Home team · Under 1 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.330	1.3301 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCards · Home team · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.180	1.1801 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – New ZealandCorners · Away team · Over 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-05 09:30:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.060	1.0601 bookmakers	92.5%	−1.9%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
Japan – New ZealandCorners · Away team · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-05 09:30:00+00:00 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.180 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.300	1.2402 bookmakers	75.3%	−6.6%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
Japan – New ZealandCorners · Away team · Over 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-05 09:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.800 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.600 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 1.670 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.770	1.7104 bookmakers	53.5%	−8.5%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
Japan – New ZealandCorners · Away team · Over 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-05 09:30:00+00:00 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 2.430 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.500 Kambi · unknown · unknown: 2.430 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.620	2.4954 bookmakers	33.5%	−16.3%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
Japan – New ZealandCorners · Away team · Over 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-05 09:30:00+00:00 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 4.000 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 4.100	4.0502 bookmakers	18.9%	−23.5%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
Japan – New ZealandCorners · Away team · Over 5.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-05 09:30:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 6.500	6.5001 bookmakers	9.7%	−36.8%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
Japan – New ZealandCorners · Away team · Over 6.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-05 09:30:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 10.000	10.0001 bookmakers	4.6%	−53.5%Inventory only	0 / −1.00u
Japan – New ZealandCorners · Away team · Under 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-10-05T10:30:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-10-02 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-05 09:30:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 7.600	7.6001 bookmakers	7.5%	−43.3%Inventory only	0 / +6.60u

Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

Unified-model historical results

October 2026

5 Oct 2026

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