Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

All-time unified results

3,007Distinct matches

584,208Observed outcomes

508,650 / 75,558Priced / missing

123,857EV bets

−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI

0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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October 2026

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Month: 57,083 EV bets · −2906.75u · −5.1% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

4 Oct 2026

1,957 EV bets · −168.31u · −8.6% ROI9,719 observations · 8,511 priced · 1,208 missing · W 878 / L 1000 / P 79

All observed outcomes Positive EV only Cell benchmarks →

Match / cell	Average odds	Model probability	Estimated EV	Actual / return
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Over 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 5.150	5.1501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Over 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.180 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 17.000	9.0902 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Over 2 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.280	1.2801 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Over 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.600 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.600 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.690	1.6303 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Over 3 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.050	2.0501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Over 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.450 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.500	2.4752 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Under 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.110	1.1101 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Under 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.400	3.4001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Under 2 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.800	2.8001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Under 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.950 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.950 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.020	1.9733 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Under 3 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.550	1.5501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Away team · Under 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.370 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.350	1.3602 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.350	3.3501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 12.000	12.0001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.130	1.1301 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.130 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.130	1.1302 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 4.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.350	1.3501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 4.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.350 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.350 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.430	1.3773 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.500	1.5001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 5.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.750	1.7501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 5.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.833 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.750 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.750 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.7964 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 6 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.100	2.1001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 6.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.450	2.4501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 6.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.450 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.450 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.470	2.4573 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 7 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 3.100	3.1001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 7.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.600	3.6001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Over 7.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 3.600 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.600	3.6002 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.280	1.2801 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.950	3.9501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 3.950 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.950	3.9502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 4.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.500	2.5001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 4.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.500 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.500 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.520	2.5073 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.100	2.1001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 5.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.750	1.7501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 5.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.833 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.750 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.750 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.7964 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 6 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.500	1.5001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 6.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.350	1.3501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 6.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.360 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.360 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.450	1.3903 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 7 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.220	1.2201 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 7.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.160	1.1601 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Match total · Under 7.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.160 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.160	1.1602 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Home team · Over 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 5.300	5.3001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Home team · Over 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.220 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 17.000	9.1102 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Home team · Over 2 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.350	1.3501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Home team · Over 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.700 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.700 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.770	1.7233 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Home team · Over 3 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.250	2.2501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Home team · Over 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.700 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.700	2.7002 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Home team · Under 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.100	1.1001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Home team · Under 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.100	3.1001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Real Sociedad B – GranadaCards · Home team · Under 2 LaLiga 2 · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.500	2.5001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —

Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

Unified-model historical results

October 2026

4 Oct 2026

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