Unified-model historical results
Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.
From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.
Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.
Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.
All-time unified results
3,043Distinct matches
596,308Observed outcomes
520,075 / 76,233Priced / missing
123,857EV bets2,511 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes
EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.
Month: 57,083 EV bets · −2906.75u · −5.1% ROI · 2511 Pending
Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.
MonTueWedThuFriSatSun1−7.1%1388 bets2+6.8%1881 bets3+11.7%1678 bets4−8.6%1957 bets5−13.0%1627 bets6−9.3%1967 bets7−15.2%337 bets8−14.2%407 bets9−14.1%1978 bets10−11.0%8323 bets11−3.4%5831 bets12+2.6%1909 bets13−13.8%2310 bets14+10.8%3074 bets15−14.1%5929 bets16−9.5%2343 bets17−9.0%8754 bets18+13.3%5390 bets19No replay yet20No replay yet21—0 bets1458 Pending
2 Oct 2026
1,881 EV bets · +128.25u · +6.8% ROI8,920 observations · 7,970 priced · 950 missing · W 916 / L 907 / P 58
| Match / cell | Average odds | Model probability | Estimated EV | Actual / return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 7.4001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 1International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.8173 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 2International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.7001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 3.1001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.0401 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 1International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.7001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.7503 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 2International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2201 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 5.5501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2503 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 2International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.4001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.8125 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 3International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.3501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.7903 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.1101 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 3.0503 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 2International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.3501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.7705 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 3International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.4001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3073 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 3.9003 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Over 1International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.0501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.8333 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.8203 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Under 1International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5501 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3003 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0201 bookmakers | 93.6% | −4.6%Inventory only | 1 / +0.02u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.1352 bookmakers | 78.7% | −10.7%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.4485 bookmakers | 59.3% | −14.2%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.9854 bookmakers | 40.3% | −20.0%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.9254 bookmakers | 25.0% | −26.9%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 5.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 4.7252 bookmakers | 14.3% | −32.6%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 6.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 6.8001 bookmakers | 7.5% | −48.7%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 12.0001 bookmakers | 6.4% | −22.7%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 4.6002 bookmakers | 21.3% | −2.0%Inventory only | 1 / +3.60u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.4265 bookmakers | 40.7% | −1.2%Inventory only | 1 / +1.43u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.6574 bookmakers | 59.7% | −1.0%Inventory only | 1 / +0.66u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.3084 bookmakers | 75.0% | −1.9%Inventory only | 1 / +0.31u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 5.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.1302 bookmakers | 85.7% | −3.1%Inventory only | 1 / +0.13u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 6.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0701 bookmakers | 92.5% | −1.1%Inventory only | 1 / +0.07u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0201 bookmakers | 96.9% | −1.1%Inventory only | 4 / +0.02u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0452 bookmakers | 92.9% | −2.9%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 5.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.1303 bookmakers | 86.3% | −2.5%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 6.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.2784 bookmakers | 77.2% | −1.4%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 7.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.4965 bookmakers | 66.1% | −1.1%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 8.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.8575 bookmakers | 54.1% | +0.4%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 9.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.3004 bookmakers | 42.2% | −2.9%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
South Korea – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 10.5International Friendly Games · 2026-10-02T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-10-02 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.9874 bookmakers | 31.4% | −6.1%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Backtest method and coverage
Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.
The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.
- Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
- Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
- Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
- This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
- Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.
Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00