Unified-model historical results
Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.
From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.
Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.
All-time unified results
3,007Distinct matches
584,208Observed outcomes
508,650 / 75,558Priced / missing
123,857EV bets
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes
EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.
Month: 47,561 EV bets · −2670.62u · −5.6% ROI
Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.
MonTueWedThuFriSatSun1−41.4%324 bets2−14.2%618 bets3+70.5%213 bets4−3.2%590 bets5+8.3%2362 bets6−13.3%1599 bets7+6.3%415 bets8−15.7%513 bets9−24.3%909 bets10−42.7%368 bets11+15.0%828 bets12−13.1%3479 bets13−14.9%3716 bets14+7.6%1755 bets15+2.0%2337 bets16+5.9%2101 bets17−19.8%1821 bets18−8.1%1598 bets19−5.6%5471 bets20−14.5%4988 bets21+6.5%261 bets22−11.6%161 bets23+12.1%503 bets24+12.0%1564 bets25+1.7%1611 bets26−10.5%2445 bets27−8.6%1542 bets28+17.3%1265 bets29−2.2%1710 bets30−18.9%494 bets
30 Sept 2026
494 EV bets · −93.22u · −18.9% ROI2,008 observations · 1,785 priced · 223 missing · W 226 / L 256 / P 12
| Match / cell | Average odds | Model probability | Estimated EV | Actual / return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.2501 bookmakers | 75.5% | −5.6%Inventory only | 2 / +0.25u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 2.0802 bookmakers | 46.2% | −3.8%Inventory only | 2 / +1.08u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 5.0001 bookmakers | 23.8% | +19.1%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 13.0001 bookmakers | 10.8% | +41.0%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Over 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 29.0001 bookmakers | 4.6% | +33.8%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 3.7501 bookmakers | 24.5% | −8.1%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.6372 bookmakers | 53.8% | −12.0%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.1671 bookmakers | 76.2% | −11.1%Inventory only | 2 / +0.17u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.0401 bookmakers | 89.2% | −7.3%Inventory only | 2 / +0.04u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Away team · Under 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.0071 bookmakers | 95.4% | −3.9%Inventory only | 2 / +0.01u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.0643 bookmakers | 90.4% | −3.8%Inventory only | 2 / +0.06u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 0.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.0901 bookmakers | 89.2% | −2.5%Inventory only | 2 / +0.09u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 1International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.1001 bookmakers | 87.8% | −2.7%Inventory only | 2 / +0.10u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 1.25International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.2401 bookmakers | 77.3% | −3.7%Inventory only | 2 / +0.24u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.3623 bookmakers | 69.0% | −6.0%Inventory only | 2 / +0.36u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 1.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.4701 bookmakers | 64.7% | −4.3%Inventory only | 2 / +0.23u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 2International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.5972 bookmakers | 58.9% | −4.5%Inventory only | 2 / +0.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 2.25International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.8812 bookmakers | 50.5% | −4.3%Inventory only | 2 / −0.50u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 2.1185 bookmakers | 44.3% | −6.2%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 2.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 2.5301 bookmakers | 38.1% | −3.2%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 3International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 3.2101 bookmakers | 30.4% | −2.0%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 3.25International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 3.6501 bookmakers | 27.0% | −1.3%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 4.0333 bookmakers | 24.3% | −2.0%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 3.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 5.2501 bookmakers | 19.2% | +0.7%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 4International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 7.8001 bookmakers | 13.3% | +3.5%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 4.25International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 8.4001 bookmakers | 12.4% | +4.2%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 8.6673 bookmakers | 11.6% | +0.9%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 4.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 12.6301 bookmakers | 8.6% | +8.3%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 22.3301 bookmakers | 5.3% | +17.7%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 5.25International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 22.2201 bookmakers | 5.1% | +13.8%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 5.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 21.0002 bookmakers | 5.0% | +4.4%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 5.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 35.2501 bookmakers | 3.5% | +23.1%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 6International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 63.2901 bookmakers | 2.0% | +24.8%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 6.25International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 64.1401 bookmakers | 2.0% | +24.9%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Over 6.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 65.0001 bookmakers | 1.9% | +25.1%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 10.0003 bookmakers | 9.6% | −3.7%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 0.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 8.8301 bookmakers | 10.8% | −4.3%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 1International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 7.8901 bookmakers | 12.2% | −2.7%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 1.25International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 4.5601 bookmakers | 22.7% | +3.2%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 3.1333 bookmakers | 31.0% | −3.0%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 1.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 2.8101 bookmakers | 35.3% | −0.6%Inventory only | 2 / −0.50u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 2International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 2.3552 bookmakers | 41.1% | −2.3%Inventory only | 2 / +0.00u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 2.25International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.9812 bookmakers | 49.5% | −1.8%Inventory only | 2 / +0.49u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.6885 bookmakers | 55.7% | −6.0%Inventory only | 2 / +0.69u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 2.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.6001 bookmakers | 61.9% | −0.9%Inventory only | 2 / +0.60u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 3International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.4201 bookmakers | 69.6% | −0.9%Inventory only | 2 / +0.42u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 3.25International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.3501 bookmakers | 73.0% | −1.3%Inventory only | 2 / +0.35u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.2443 bookmakers | 75.7% | −5.8%Inventory only | 2 / +0.24u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 3.75International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.1901 bookmakers | 80.8% | −3.6%Inventory only | 2 / +0.19u |
Seychelles – Sri LankaGoals · Match total · Under 4International Friendly Games · 2026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-30 12:00:00+00:00
| 1.1201 bookmakers | 86.7% | −2.6%Inventory only | 2 / +0.12u |
Backtest method and coverage
Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.
The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.
- Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
- Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
- Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
- This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
- Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.
Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00