Unified-model historical results
Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.
From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.
Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.
Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.
All-time unified results
3,054Distinct matches
599,435Observed outcomes
523,034 / 76,401Priced / missing
123,857EV bets2,990 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes
EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.
Month: 47,561 EV bets · −2670.62u · −5.6% ROI
Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.
MonTueWedThuFriSatSun1−41.4%324 bets2−14.2%618 bets3+70.5%213 bets4−3.2%590 bets5+8.3%2362 bets6−13.3%1599 bets7+6.3%415 bets8−15.7%513 bets9−24.3%909 bets10−42.7%368 bets11+15.0%828 bets12−13.1%3479 bets13−14.9%3716 bets14+7.6%1755 bets15+2.0%2337 bets16+5.9%2101 bets17−19.8%1821 bets18−8.1%1598 bets19−5.6%5471 bets20−14.5%4988 bets21+6.5%261 bets22−11.6%161 bets23+12.1%503 bets24+12.0%1564 bets25+1.7%1611 bets26−10.5%2445 bets27−8.6%1542 bets28+17.3%1265 bets29−2.2%1710 bets30−18.9%494 bets
29 Sept 2026
1,710 EV bets · −38.44u · −2.2% ROI8,214 observations · 7,217 priced · 997 missing · W 799 / L 861 / P 50
| Match / cell | Average odds | Model probability | Estimated EV | Actual / return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia – BrazilCards · Away team · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.6403 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Away team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.7001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Away team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 3.1001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Away team · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.0203 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Away team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.3001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Away team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.2201 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.0701 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 6.5001 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.4401 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.4373 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.1001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.2034 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 4.0001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 3.8252 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 5.1001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.0801 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.3001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.3733 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5124 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.1501 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Match total · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.1502 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Home team · Over 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 4.6502 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Home team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.1001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Home team · Over 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 2.2073 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Home team · Under 0.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.8652 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Home team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5001 bookmakers | Historical forecast missing | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCards · Home team · Under 1.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: —
| 1.5403 bookmakers | Unverified outcome unit | —Inventory only | — / — |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Over 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.0801 bookmakers | 80.1% | −13.5%Inventory only | 6 / +0.08u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.1825 bookmakers | 65.6% | −22.4%Inventory only | 6 / +0.18u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Over 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.4285 bookmakers | 50.3% | −28.2%Inventory only | 6 / +0.43u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Over 5.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.8396 bookmakers | 36.0% | −33.7%Inventory only | 6 / +0.84u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Over 6.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 2.5145 bookmakers | 24.3% | −38.9%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Over 7.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 3.5205 bookmakers | 15.5% | −45.6%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Over 8.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 4.8502 bookmakers | 9.3% | −54.8%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Over 9.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 5.6001 bookmakers | 5.3% | −70.1%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Under 2.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 6.4001 bookmakers | 19.9% | +27.2%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Under 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 3.7805 bookmakers | 34.4% | +29.9%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Under 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 2.4405 bookmakers | 49.7% | +21.4%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Under 5.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.7796 bookmakers | 64.0% | +13.8%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Under 6.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.4065 bookmakers | 75.7% | +6.4%EV bet | 6 / +0.41u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Under 7.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.2265 bookmakers | 84.5% | +3.6%EV bet | 6 / +0.23u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Under 8.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.1352 bookmakers | 90.7% | +2.9%EV bet | 6 / +0.14u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Away team · Under 9.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.0901 bookmakers | 94.7% | +3.2%EV bet | 6 / +0.09u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Match total · Over 3.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.0101 bookmakers | 97.0% | −2.0%Inventory only | 10 / +0.01u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Match total · Over 4.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.0501 bookmakers | 92.9% | −2.5%Inventory only | 10 / +0.05u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Match total · Over 5.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.0805 bookmakers | 86.2% | −7.0%Inventory only | 10 / +0.08u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Match total · Over 6.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.2165 bookmakers | 76.7% | −6.7%Inventory only | 10 / +0.22u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Match total · Over 7.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.3806 bookmakers | 65.2% | −10.0%Inventory only | 10 / +0.38u |
Australia – BrazilCorners · Match total · Over 8.5International Friendly Games · 2026-09-29T10:00:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-29 09:00:00+00:00
| 1.6396 bookmakers | 52.8% | −13.4%Inventory only | 10 / +0.64u |
Backtest method and coverage
Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.
The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.
- Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
- Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
- Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
- This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
- Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.
Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00