Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

All-time unified results

3,061Distinct matches

601,518Observed outcomes

524,995 / 76,523Priced / missing

123,857EV bets3,422 Pending

−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI

0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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September 2026

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Month: 47,561 EV bets · −2670.62u · −5.6% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

28 Sept 2026

1,265 EV bets · +218.91u · +17.3% ROI6,300 observations · 5,587 priced · 713 missing · W 596 / L 624 / P 45

All observed outcomes Positive EV only Cell benchmarks →

Match / cell	Average odds	Model probability	Estimated EV	Actual / return
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 6.700	6.7001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.870	1.8701 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.620	1.6201 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 2 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.850	2.8501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Over 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.800	3.8001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.050	1.0501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.790	1.7901 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.070	2.0701 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 2 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.330	1.3301 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Away team · Under 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.190	1.1901 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 5.000	5.0001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.340	1.3401 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 12.000	12.0001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.100	2.1001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.520	1.5201 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.800	3.8001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 2.150 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.170	2.1602 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 7.900	7.9001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Over 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.200	3.2001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 7.900	7.9001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.130	1.1301 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.800	2.8001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.650	1.6501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.250	2.2501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.190	1.1901 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.550 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.560	1.5552 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.010	1.0101 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Match total · Under 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.230	1.2301 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Over 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 8.400	8.4001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 4.100	4.1001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.320	2.3201 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Under 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.020	1.0201 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.160	1.1601 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCards · Home team · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.480	1.4801 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.050	1.0501 bookmakers	91.5%	−3.9%Inventory only	7 / +0.05u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.270 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.280 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.260 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.270	1.2704 bookmakers	72.8%	−7.5%Inventory only	7 / +0.27u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.800 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.850 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.800 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.700	1.7884 bookmakers	50.3%	−10.1%Inventory only	7 / +0.79u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.950 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.000 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.470	2.8073 bookmakers	30.5%	−14.4%Inventory only	7 / +1.81u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 5.200 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 5.600 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.800	4.8673 bookmakers	16.5%	−19.5%Inventory only	7 / +3.87u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 5.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 8.300 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 10.500 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 5.900	8.2333 bookmakers	8.2%	−32.8%Inventory only	7 / +7.23u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Over 6.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 9.300	9.3001 bookmakers	3.7%	−65.5%Inventory only	7 / +8.30u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 0.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 8.200	8.2001 bookmakers	8.5%	−30.2%Inventory only	7 / −1.00u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 1.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 3.300 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.950 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.000 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.450	3.1754 bookmakers	27.2%	−13.8%Inventory only	7 / −1.00u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 2.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.909 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.750 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.700 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.050	1.8524 bookmakers	49.7%	−7.9%Inventory only	7 / −1.00u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.280 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.260 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.480	1.3403 bookmakers	69.5%	−6.9%Inventory only	7 / −1.00u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.080 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.050 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.230	1.1203 bookmakers	83.5%	−6.5%Inventory only	7 / −1.00u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 5.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.100	1.1001 bookmakers	91.8%	+1.0%EV bet	7 / −1.00u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Away team · Under 6.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.040	1.0401 bookmakers	96.3%	+0.1%EV bet	7 / −1.00u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 3.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.020	1.0201 bookmakers	96.6%	−1.4%Inventory only	8 / +0.02u
Japan – VenezuelaCorners · Match total · Over 4.5 International Friendly Games · 2026-09-28T10:25:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-25 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-28 09:25:00+00:00 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.020 Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.020 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.070	1.0373 bookmakers	92.2%	−4.4%Inventory only	8 / +0.04u

Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

Unified-model historical results

September 2026

28 Sept 2026

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