Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

All-time unified results

3,061Distinct matches

601,645Observed outcomes

525,110 / 76,535Priced / missing

124,656EV bets2,716 Pending

−7314.32uEV profit · −5.9% ROI

0.1794Brier score · 353,986 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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September 2026

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Month: 47,561 EV bets · −2670.62u · −5.6% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

26 Sept 2026

2,445 EV bets · −257.92u · −10.5% ROI13,457 observations · 11,847 priced · 1,610 missing · W 1152 / L 1225 / P 68

All observed outcomes Positive EV only Cell benchmarks →

Match / cell	Average odds	Model probability	Estimated EV	Actual / return
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Over 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 5.500	5.5001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Over 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.150 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 17.000	9.0752 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Over 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.650	1.6501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Over 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.550 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.550 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.700	1.6003 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Over 3 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.8501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Over 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.350 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.500	2.4252 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Under 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.090	1.0901 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Under 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.750	3.7501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Under 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.8501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Under 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.050 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.000 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.020	2.0233 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Under 3 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.650	1.6501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Away team · Under 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.400 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.350	1.3752 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 3.900	3.9001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 12.000	12.0001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.110	1.1101 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.110 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.110	1.1102 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 4.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.300	1.3001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 4.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.300 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.420	1.3403 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.370	1.3701 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 5.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.650	1.6501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 5.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.800 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.650 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.650 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.830	1.7324 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 6 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.8501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 6.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.300	2.3001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 6.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.300 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.300 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.450	2.3503 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 7 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.700	2.7001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 7.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 3.350	3.3501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Over 7.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 3.350 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.350	3.3502 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.210	1.2101 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 4.200	4.2001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 4.200 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 4.200	4.2002 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 4.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 2.700	2.7001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 4.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.700 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.700 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 2.550	2.6503 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.450	2.4501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 5.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.8501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 5.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.909 Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.850 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.850 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.870	1.8704 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 6 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.650	1.6501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 6.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.400	1.4001 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 6.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.410 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.410 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.450	1.4233 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 7 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.300	1.3001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 7.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.190	1.1901 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Match total · Under 7.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.190 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.190	1.1902 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Home team · Over 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 6.700	6.7001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Home team · Over 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.150	1.1501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Home team · Over 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.650	1.6501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Home team · Over 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.550 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 1.550 Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.720	1.6073 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Home team · Over 3 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.8501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Home team · Over 3.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Betlive · unknown · unknown: 2.350 Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 2.500	2.4252 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Home team · Under 0.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Superbet · unknown · unknown: 1.050	1.0501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Home team · Under 1.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Crocobet · unknown · unknown: 3.750	3.7501 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
AD Ceuta – Real Sociedad BCards · Home team · Under 2.5 LaLiga 2 · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — Liderbet · unknown · unknown: 1.850	1.8501 bookmakers	Historical forecast missing	—Inventory only	— / —

Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

Unified-model historical results

September 2026

26 Sept 2026

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