Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

PredictionsPredictionsMonitoringMonitoringPlayer propsPropsFantasyFantasyBenchmarksBenchmarks

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

Reset
All-time unified results
3,061Distinct matches
601,518Observed outcomes
524,995 / 76,523Priced / missing
123,857EV bets3,422 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

‹

September 2026

›

Month: 47,561 EV bets · −2670.62u · −5.6% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun1−41.4%324 bets2−14.2%618 bets3+70.5%213 bets4−3.2%590 bets5+8.3%2362 bets6−13.3%1599 bets7+6.3%415 bets8−15.7%513 bets9−24.3%909 bets10−42.7%368 bets11+15.0%828 bets12−13.1%3479 bets13−14.9%3716 bets14+7.6%1755 bets15+2.0%2337 bets16+5.9%2101 bets17−19.8%1821 bets18−8.1%1598 bets19−5.6%5471 bets20−14.5%4988 bets21+6.5%261 bets22−11.6%161 bets23+12.1%503 bets24+12.0%1564 bets25+1.7%1611 bets26−10.5%2445 bets27−8.6%1542 bets28+17.3%1265 bets29−2.2%1710 bets30−18.9%494 bets

22 Sept 2026

161 EV bets · −18.73u · −11.6% ROI470 observations · 470 priced · 0 missing · W 54 / L 103 / P 4

All observed outcomesPositive EV onlyCell benchmarks →
Match / cellAverage oddsModel probabilityEstimated EVActual / return
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Away team · Over 3.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.620
1.6201 bookmakers59.3%−3.9%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Away team · Over 4.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.100
2.1001 bookmakers42.5%−10.8%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Away team · Under 3.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 2.120
2.1201 bookmakers40.7%−13.8%Inventory only1 / +1.12u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Away team · Under 4.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.667
1.6671 bookmakers57.5%−4.1%Inventory only1 / +0.67u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Match total · Over 8.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.610
1.6101 bookmakers53.5%−13.9%Inventory only5 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Match total · Over 9.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.000
2.0001 bookmakers41.6%−16.9%Inventory only5 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Match total · Under 8.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 2.120
2.1201 bookmakers46.5%−1.4%Inventory only5 / +1.12u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Match total · Under 9.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.727
1.7271 bookmakers58.4%+0.9%EV bet5 / +0.73u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Home team · Over 4.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.800
  • BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.730
1.7652 bookmakers48.2%−15.0%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFCorners · Home team · Under 4.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.909
  • BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.950
1.9292 bookmakers51.8%−0.0%Inventory only4 / +0.93u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Over 0.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.333
  • BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.340
1.3372 bookmakers75.6%+1.1%EV bet0 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Over 1.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.625
2.6251 bookmakers45.3%+19.0%EV bet0 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Over 2.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 6.000
6.0001 bookmakers22.6%+35.4%EV bet0 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Over 3.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 10.500
10.5001 bookmakers10.0%+4.8%EV bet0 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Over 4.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 21.000
21.0001 bookmakers4.3%−10.6%Inventory only0 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Under 0.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.250
  • BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 2.900
3.0752 bookmakers24.4%−25.0%Inventory only0 / +2.08u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Under 1.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.444
1.4441 bookmakers54.7%−21.1%Inventory only0 / +0.44u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Under 2.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.111
1.1111 bookmakers77.4%−14.0%Inventory only0 / +0.11u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Under 3.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.025
1.0251 bookmakers90.0%−7.7%Inventory only0 / +0.02u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Away team · Under 4.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.002
1.0021 bookmakers95.7%−4.1%Inventory only0 / +0.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 0.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.040
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.060
  • Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.025
1.0423 bookmakers96.2%+0.2%EV bet1 / +0.04u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 0.75UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.060
1.0601 bookmakers95.9%+1.6%EV bet1 / +0.03u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 1UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.070
1.0701 bookmakers95.7%+2.1%EV bet1 / +0.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 1.25UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.160
1.1601 bookmakers89.6%+3.7%EV bet1 / −0.50u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 1.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.222
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.250
  • Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.222
1.2313 bookmakers84.3%+3.8%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 1.75UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.300
1.3001 bookmakers82.7%+6.8%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 2UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.360
1.3601 bookmakers80.7%+7.9%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 2.25UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.570
1.5701 bookmakers72.2%+12.1%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 2.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.700
  • BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.760
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.790
  • Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.727
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.735
1.7425 bookmakers65.4%+14.0%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 2.75UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.990
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.952
1.9712 bookmakers61.4%+18.8%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 3UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.320
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.270
2.2952 bookmakers56.3%+23.2%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 3.25UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.660
2.6601 bookmakers49.8%+29.1%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 3.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.625
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.000
  • Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 2.875
2.8333 bookmakers44.6%+26.4%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 3.75UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.700
3.7001 bookmakers39.2%+41.2%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 4UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.130
5.1301 bookmakers32.7%+55.9%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 4.25UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.670
5.6701 bookmakers29.6%+61.6%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 4.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 4.500
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 6.200
  • Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 5.500
5.4003 bookmakers26.9%+45.5%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 4.75UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 8.120
8.1201 bookmakers22.1%+74.7%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 12.340
12.3401 bookmakers16.6%+92.1%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 5.25UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 12.920
12.9201 bookmakers15.5%+94.4%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 5.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 8.500
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 13.500
  • Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 9.500
10.5003 bookmakers14.6%+52.9%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 5.75UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 19.180
19.1801 bookmakers11.3%+111.8%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 6UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 32.480
32.4801 bookmakers7.7%+139.2%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 6.25UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 33.240
33.2401 bookmakers7.4%+140.9%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 6.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 12.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 34.000
23.0002 bookmakers7.1%+64.1%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 6.75UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 49.600
49.6001 bookmakers5.3%+158.3%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 7UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 93.360
93.3601 bookmakers3.3%+202.7%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 7.25UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 94.180
94.1801 bookmakers3.3%+203.3%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Over 7.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 95.000
95.0001 bookmakers3.2%+204.0%EV bet1 / −1.00u
Inter (Women) – BK Häcken FFGoals · Match total · Under 0.5UEFA Women's Champions League · 2026-09-22T16:45:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-09-18 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-09-22 15:45:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 9.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 16.500
  • Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 12.000
12.5003 bookmakers3.8%−52.1%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

  • Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
  • Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
  • Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
  • This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
  • Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

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