Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

All-time unified results

3,007Distinct matches

584,208Observed outcomes

508,650 / 75,558Priced / missing

123,857EV bets

−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI

0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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September 2026

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Month: 47,561 EV bets · −2670.62u · −5.6% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

6 Sept 2026

1,599 EV bets · −211.96u · −13.3% ROI9,162 observations · 8,182 priced · 980 missing · W 708 / L 848 / P 43

All observed outcomes Positive EV only Cell benchmarks →

Match / cell	Average odds	Model probability	Estimated EV	Actual / return
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.015 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.030	1.0222 bookmakers	96.5%	−1.3%Inventory only	4 / +0.02u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 0.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.030	1.0301 bookmakers	96.3%	−0.8%Inventory only	4 / +0.03u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 1 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.030	1.0301 bookmakers	96.0%	−1.0%Inventory only	4 / +0.03u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 1.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.090	1.0901 bookmakers	90.1%	−1.7%Inventory only	4 / +0.09u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.111 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.150	1.1312 bookmakers	84.8%	−4.1%Inventory only	4 / +0.13u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 1.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.160	1.1601 bookmakers	83.2%	−3.2%Inventory only	4 / +0.16u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 2 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.180	1.1801 bookmakers	81.1%	−3.4%Inventory only	4 / +0.18u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 2.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.310	1.3101 bookmakers	72.3%	−4.7%Inventory only	4 / +0.31u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.400 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.450	1.4252 bookmakers	65.3%	−7.0%Inventory only	4 / +0.42u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 2.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.530	1.5301 bookmakers	61.0%	−5.9%Inventory only	4 / +0.53u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 3 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.670 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.621	1.6452 bookmakers	55.6%	−6.7%Inventory only	4 / +0.65u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 3.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.890 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.847	1.8692 bookmakers	48.8%	−7.9%Inventory only	4 / +0.87u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 3.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.909 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.120 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.050	2.0263 bookmakers	43.5%	−11.9%Inventory only	4 / +1.03u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 3.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.420	2.4201 bookmakers	37.8%	−7.8%Inventory only	4 / +0.71u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 4 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.940	2.9401 bookmakers	30.8%	−7.8%Inventory only	4 / +0.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 4.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.300	3.3001 bookmakers	27.6%	−8.0%Inventory only	4 / −0.50u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 4.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.400 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.650	3.5252 bookmakers	25.1%	−11.5%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 4.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.510	4.5101 bookmakers	20.1%	−8.6%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 6.080	6.0801 bookmakers	14.5%	−10.4%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 5.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 6.540	6.5401 bookmakers	13.5%	−10.8%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 5.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 6.000 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 7.000	6.5002 bookmakers	12.7%	−17.5%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 5.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 9.340	9.3401 bookmakers	9.5%	−10.7%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 6 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 14.770	14.7701 bookmakers	6.1%	−9.1%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 6.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 15.380	15.3801 bookmakers	5.9%	−9.1%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 6.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 13.000 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 16.000	14.5002 bookmakers	5.7%	−17.6%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 6.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 21.760	21.7601 bookmakers	4.0%	−11.7%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 7 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 34.750	34.7501 bookmakers	2.4%	−17.5%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 7.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 35.370	35.3701 bookmakers	2.3%	−17.8%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Over 7.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 23.000 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 36.000	29.5002 bookmakers	2.3%	−32.9%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 0.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 21.000 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 30.000	25.5002 bookmakers	3.5%	−10.4%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 0.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 16.560	16.5601 bookmakers	3.7%	−36.0%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 1 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 15.940	15.9401 bookmakers	4.0%	−32.3%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 1.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 10.220	10.2201 bookmakers	9.9%	+1.4%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 1.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 6.500 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 7.400	6.9502 bookmakers	15.2%	+5.6%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 1.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 6.230	6.2301 bookmakers	16.8%	+4.4%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 2 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.640	5.6401 bookmakers	18.9%	+5.2%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 2.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.940	3.9401 bookmakers	27.7%	+8.1%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 2.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.875 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.150	3.0132 bookmakers	34.7%	+4.6%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 2.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.710	2.7101 bookmakers	39.0%	+5.0%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 3 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.420 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.370	2.3952 bookmakers	44.4%	+5.0%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 3.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.070 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.030	2.0502 bookmakers	51.2%	+4.4%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 3.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.800 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.860 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.819	1.8263 bookmakers	56.5%	+3.2%EV bet	4 / −1.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 3.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.620	1.6201 bookmakers	62.2%	+0.8%EV bet	4 / −0.50u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 4 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.480	1.4801 bookmakers	69.2%	+2.0%EV bet	4 / +0.00u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 4.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.410	1.4101 bookmakers	72.4%	+1.8%EV bet	4 / +0.20u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 4.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.300 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.370	1.3352 bookmakers	74.9%	−0.0%Inventory only	4 / +0.33u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 4.75 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.250	1.2501 bookmakers	79.9%	−0.2%Inventory only	4 / +0.25u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.180	1.1801 bookmakers	85.5%	+0.8%EV bet	4 / +0.18u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 5.25 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.160	1.1601 bookmakers	86.5%	+0.3%EV bet	4 / +0.16u
FC Groningen – FC TwenteGoals · Match total · Under 5.5 Eredivisie · 2026-09-06T10:15:00+00:00 Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-09-04 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-09-06 09:15:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.125 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.150	1.1372 bookmakers	87.3%	−0.7%Inventory only	4 / +0.14u

Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

Unified-model historical results

September 2026

6 Sept 2026

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