Unified-model historical results
Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.
From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.
Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.
All-time unified results
EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.
Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI
Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.
30 Aug 2026
2,303 EV bets · −112.33u · −4.9% ROI10,561 observations · 9,821 priced · 740 missing · W 1057 / L 1197 / P 49
| Match / cell | Average odds | Model probability | Estimated EV | Actual / return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0501 bookmakers | 87.2% | −8.4%Inventory only | 6 / +0.05u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.3001 bookmakers | 60.9% | −20.9%Inventory only | 6 / +0.30u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.9091 bookmakers | 33.8% | −35.4%Inventory only | 6 / +0.91u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 3.5001 bookmakers | 15.3% | −46.4%Inventory only | 6 / +2.50u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 7.0001 bookmakers | 5.8% | −59.5%Inventory only | 6 / +6.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 5.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 17.0001 bookmakers | 1.9% | −68.3%Inventory only | 6 / +16.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 6.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 29.0001 bookmakers | 0.5% | −84.8%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 11.0001 bookmakers | 12.8% | +40.9%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 3.4001 bookmakers | 39.1% | +33.0%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.8001 bookmakers | 66.2% | +19.1%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.2861 bookmakers | 84.7% | +8.9%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.1001 bookmakers | 94.2% | +3.6%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 5.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0251 bookmakers | 98.1% | +0.6%EV bet | 6 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 6.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0071 bookmakers | 99.5% | +0.2%EV bet | 6 / +0.01u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0101 bookmakers | 97.9% | −1.1%Inventory only | 7 / +0.01u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 0.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0101 bookmakers | 97.8% | −1.1%Inventory only | 7 / +0.01u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 1Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0101 bookmakers | 97.8% | −1.2%Inventory only | 7 / +0.01u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 1.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0501 bookmakers | 93.7% | −1.5%Inventory only | 7 / +0.05u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0812 bookmakers | 90.0% | −2.7%Inventory only | 7 / +0.08u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 1.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0901 bookmakers | 89.2% | −2.5%Inventory only | 7 / +0.09u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 2Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.1001 bookmakers | 88.3% | −2.5%Inventory only | 7 / +0.10u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 2.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.2001 bookmakers | 81.0% | −2.6%Inventory only | 7 / +0.20u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.2932 bookmakers | 74.8% | −3.2%Inventory only | 7 / +0.29u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 2.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.3401 bookmakers | 72.1% | −3.0%Inventory only | 7 / +0.34u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 3Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.4101 bookmakers | 68.7% | −2.5%Inventory only | 7 / +0.41u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 3.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.5901 bookmakers | 61.2% | −2.4%Inventory only | 7 / +0.59u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.7393 bookmakers | 55.2% | −4.0%Inventory only | 7 / +0.74u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 3.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.9562 bookmakers | 50.4% | −1.2%Inventory only | 7 / +0.96u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 4Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 2.2252 bookmakers | 44.5% | −0.7%Inventory only | 7 / +1.23u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 4.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 2.5101 bookmakers | 39.8% | −0.1%Inventory only | 7 / +1.51u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 2.6502 bookmakers | 36.0% | −4.7%Inventory only | 7 / +1.65u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 4.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 3.3001 bookmakers | 30.7% | +1.3%EV bet | 7 / +2.30u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 4.2101 bookmakers | 24.5% | +2.8%EV bet | 7 / +3.21u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 5.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 4.6001 bookmakers | 22.5% | +3.4%EV bet | 7 / +3.60u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 5.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 4.5002 bookmakers | 20.8% | −6.3%Inventory only | 7 / +3.50u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 5.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 6.3401 bookmakers | 16.6% | +5.3%EV bet | 7 / +5.34u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 6Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 9.0701 bookmakers | 12.0% | +8.0%EV bet | 7 / +8.07u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 6.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 9.5801 bookmakers | 11.4% | +8.4%EV bet | 7 / +8.58u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 6.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 9.0002 bookmakers | 10.8% | −2.8%Inventory only | 7 / +8.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 6.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 13.2801 bookmakers | 8.2% | +8.1%EV bet | 7 / +6.14u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 7Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 19.9101 bookmakers | 5.4% | +6.4%EV bet | 7 / +0.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 7.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 20.4501 bookmakers | 5.2% | +6.3%EV bet | 7 / −0.50u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 7.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 18.0002 bookmakers | 5.1% | −9.0%Inventory only | 7 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 7.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 29.3301 bookmakers | 3.7% | +7.3%EV bet | 7 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 8Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 46.7101 bookmakers | 2.2% | +3.7%EV bet | 7 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 8.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 47.3501 bookmakers | 2.2% | +3.7%EV bet | 7 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 8.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 37.0002 bookmakers | 2.2% | −20.1%Inventory only | 7 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Under 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 50.0001 bookmakers | 2.1% | +3.3%EV bet | 7 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Under 0.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 17.1101 bookmakers | 2.2% | −60.7%Inventory only | 7 / −1.00u |
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Under 1Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
| 16.8801 bookmakers | 2.2% | −57.2%Inventory only | 7 / −1.00u |
Backtest method and coverage
Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.
The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.
- Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
- Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
- Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
- This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
- Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.
Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00