Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

Reset
All-time unified results
3,043Distinct matches
596,300Observed outcomes
520,067 / 76,233Priced / missing
123,857EV bets2,488 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

‹

August 2026

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Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

30 Aug 2026

2,303 EV bets · −112.33u · −4.9% ROI10,561 observations · 9,821 priced · 740 missing · W 1057 / L 1197 / P 49

Match / cellAverage oddsModel probabilityEstimated EVActual / return
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.050
1.0501 bookmakers87.2%−8.4%Inventory only6 / +0.05u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.300
1.3001 bookmakers60.9%−20.9%Inventory only6 / +0.30u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.909
1.9091 bookmakers33.8%−35.4%Inventory only6 / +0.91u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.500
3.5001 bookmakers15.3%−46.4%Inventory only6 / +2.50u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 7.000
7.0001 bookmakers5.8%−59.5%Inventory only6 / +6.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 5.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 17.000
17.0001 bookmakers1.9%−68.3%Inventory only6 / +16.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Over 6.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 29.000
29.0001 bookmakers0.5%−84.8%Inventory only6 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 11.000
11.0001 bookmakers12.8%+40.9%EV bet6 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.400
3.4001 bookmakers39.1%+33.0%EV bet6 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.800
1.8001 bookmakers66.2%+19.1%EV bet6 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.286
1.2861 bookmakers84.7%+8.9%EV bet6 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.100
1.1001 bookmakers94.2%+3.6%EV bet6 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 5.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.025
1.0251 bookmakers98.1%+0.6%EV bet6 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Away team · Under 6.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.007
1.0071 bookmakers99.5%+0.2%EV bet6 / +0.01u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.010
1.0101 bookmakers97.9%−1.1%Inventory only7 / +0.01u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 0.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.010
1.0101 bookmakers97.8%−1.1%Inventory only7 / +0.01u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 1Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.010
1.0101 bookmakers97.8%−1.2%Inventory only7 / +0.01u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 1.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.050
1.0501 bookmakers93.7%−1.5%Inventory only7 / +0.05u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.071
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.090
1.0812 bookmakers90.0%−2.7%Inventory only7 / +0.08u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 1.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.090
1.0901 bookmakers89.2%−2.5%Inventory only7 / +0.09u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 2Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.100
1.1001 bookmakers88.3%−2.5%Inventory only7 / +0.10u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 2.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.200
1.2001 bookmakers81.0%−2.6%Inventory only7 / +0.20u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.286
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.300
1.2932 bookmakers74.8%−3.2%Inventory only7 / +0.29u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 2.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.340
1.3401 bookmakers72.1%−3.0%Inventory only7 / +0.34u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 3Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.410
1.4101 bookmakers68.7%−2.5%Inventory only7 / +0.41u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 3.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.590
1.5901 bookmakers61.2%−2.4%Inventory only7 / +0.59u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.667
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.780
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.769
1.7393 bookmakers55.2%−4.0%Inventory only7 / +0.74u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 3.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.960
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.952
1.9562 bookmakers50.4%−1.2%Inventory only7 / +0.96u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 4Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.230
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.220
2.2252 bookmakers44.5%−0.7%Inventory only7 / +1.23u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 4.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.510
2.5101 bookmakers39.8%−0.1%Inventory only7 / +1.51u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.500
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.800
2.6502 bookmakers36.0%−4.7%Inventory only7 / +1.65u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 4.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.300
3.3001 bookmakers30.7%+1.3%EV bet7 / +2.30u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.210
4.2101 bookmakers24.5%+2.8%EV bet7 / +3.21u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 5.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.600
4.6001 bookmakers22.5%+3.4%EV bet7 / +3.60u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 5.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 4.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.000
4.5002 bookmakers20.8%−6.3%Inventory only7 / +3.50u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 5.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 6.340
6.3401 bookmakers16.6%+5.3%EV bet7 / +5.34u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 6Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 9.070
9.0701 bookmakers12.0%+8.0%EV bet7 / +8.07u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 6.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 9.580
9.5801 bookmakers11.4%+8.4%EV bet7 / +8.58u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 6.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 8.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 10.000
9.0002 bookmakers10.8%−2.8%Inventory only7 / +8.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 6.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 13.280
13.2801 bookmakers8.2%+8.1%EV bet7 / +6.14u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 7Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 19.910
19.9101 bookmakers5.4%+6.4%EV bet7 / +0.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 7.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 20.450
20.4501 bookmakers5.2%+6.3%EV bet7 / −0.50u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 7.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 15.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 21.000
18.0002 bookmakers5.1%−9.0%Inventory only7 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 7.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 29.330
29.3301 bookmakers3.7%+7.3%EV bet7 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 8Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 46.710
46.7101 bookmakers2.2%+3.7%EV bet7 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 8.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 47.350
47.3501 bookmakers2.2%+3.7%EV bet7 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Over 8.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 26.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 48.000
37.0002 bookmakers2.2%−20.1%Inventory only7 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Under 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 50.000
50.0001 bookmakers2.1%+3.3%EV bet7 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Under 0.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 17.110
17.1101 bookmakers2.2%−60.7%Inventory only7 / −1.00u
FC Utrecht – PSV EindhovenGoals · Match total · Under 1Eredivisie · 2026-08-30T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-28 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-30 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 16.880
16.8801 bookmakers2.2%−57.2%Inventory only7 / −1.00u
Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

  • Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
  • Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
  • Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
  • This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
  • Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

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