Unified-model historical results
Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.
From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.
All-time unified results
EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.
Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI
Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.
23 Aug 2026
1,950 EV bets · −365.00u · −18.7% ROI9,484 observations · 8,620 priced · 864 missing · W 834 / L 1075 / P 41
| Match / cell | Average odds | Model probability | Estimated EV | Actual / return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.3331 bookmakers | 71.8% | −4.3%Inventory only | 1 / +0.33u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 2.6251 bookmakers | 36.1% | −5.3%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 6.5001 bookmakers | 13.5% | −12.3%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 19.0001 bookmakers | 4.0% | −24.6%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 51.0001 bookmakers | 1.0% | −51.2%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 3.2501 bookmakers | 28.2% | −8.3%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.4441 bookmakers | 63.9% | −7.7%Inventory only | 1 / +0.44u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.1111 bookmakers | 86.5% | −3.9%Inventory only | 1 / +0.11u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0201 bookmakers | 96.0% | −2.0%Inventory only | 1 / +0.02u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: two_stage Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0021 bookmakers | 99.0% | −0.8%Inventory only | 1 / +0.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0252 bookmakers | 96.3% | −1.3%Inventory only | 4 / +0.02u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 0.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0301 bookmakers | 96.1% | −1.0%Inventory only | 4 / +0.03u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 1Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.0401 bookmakers | 95.8% | −0.3%Inventory only | 4 / +0.04u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 1.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.1001 bookmakers | 89.7% | −1.2%Inventory only | 4 / +0.10u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.1432 bookmakers | 84.4% | −3.6%Inventory only | 4 / +0.14u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 1.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.1801 bookmakers | 82.7% | −2.2%Inventory only | 4 / +0.18u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 2Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.2001 bookmakers | 80.5% | −2.7%Inventory only | 4 / +0.20u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 2.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.3501 bookmakers | 71.7% | −2.9%Inventory only | 4 / +0.35u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.4722 bookmakers | 64.7% | −4.8%Inventory only | 4 / +0.47u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 2.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.6001 bookmakers | 60.3% | −3.1%Inventory only | 4 / +0.60u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 3Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.7372 bookmakers | 54.8% | −3.7%Inventory only | 4 / +0.74u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 3.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 1.9812 bookmakers | 48.1% | −4.2%Inventory only | 4 / +0.98u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 2.1803 bookmakers | 42.9% | −6.5%Inventory only | 4 / +1.18u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 3.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 2.6101 bookmakers | 37.2% | −2.7%Inventory only | 4 / +0.80u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 4Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 3.2301 bookmakers | 30.2% | −2.0%Inventory only | 4 / +0.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 4.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 3.6101 bookmakers | 27.2% | −1.7%Inventory only | 4 / −0.50u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 3.7502 bookmakers | 24.7% | −7.3%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 4.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 5.0301 bookmakers | 19.8% | −0.3%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 7.1501 bookmakers | 14.2% | +1.6%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 5.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 7.6701 bookmakers | 13.3% | +2.0%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 5.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 7.3502 bookmakers | 12.5% | −8.1%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 5.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 10.8901 bookmakers | 9.4% | +2.0%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 6Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 16.8001 bookmakers | 6.0% | +1.2%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 6.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 17.4001 bookmakers | 5.8% | +1.1%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 6.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 15.5002 bookmakers | 5.6% | −13.0%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 6.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 24.8001 bookmakers | 4.0% | −0.7%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 7Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 40.6601 bookmakers | 2.3% | −4.7%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 7.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 41.3301 bookmakers | 2.3% | −4.9%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 7.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 34.0002 bookmakers | 2.3% | −23.1%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 23.0002 bookmakers | 3.7% | −15.7%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 0.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 14.0001 bookmakers | 3.9% | −42.7%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 1Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 13.5001 bookmakers | 4.2% | −38.6%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 1.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 9.0001 bookmakers | 10.3% | −7.2%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 6.4002 bookmakers | 15.6% | +0.1%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 1.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 5.6001 bookmakers | 17.3% | −2.6%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 2Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 5.0701 bookmakers | 19.5% | −1.0%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 2.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 3.6601 bookmakers | 28.3% | +3.1%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 2.8402 bookmakers | 35.3% | +0.4%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 2.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 2.4901 bookmakers | 39.7% | −1.1%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 3Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00Recipe: blend Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
| 2.2052 bookmakers | 45.2% | −0.3%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
Backtest method and coverage
Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.
The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.
- Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
- Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
- Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
- This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
- Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.
Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00