Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.
Reset
All-time unified results
3,007Distinct matches
584,208Observed outcomes
508,650 / 75,558Priced / missing
123,857EV bets
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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August 2026

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Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

23 Aug 2026

1,950 EV bets · −365.00u · −18.7% ROI9,484 observations · 8,620 priced · 864 missing · W 834 / L 1075 / P 41

Match / cellAverage oddsModel probabilityEstimated EVActual / return
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.333
1.3331 bookmakers71.8%−4.3%Inventory only1 / +0.33u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.625
2.6251 bookmakers36.1%−5.3%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 6.500
6.5001 bookmakers13.5%−12.3%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 19.000
19.0001 bookmakers4.0%−24.6%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Over 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 51.000
51.0001 bookmakers1.0%−51.2%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.250
3.2501 bookmakers28.2%−8.3%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.444
1.4441 bookmakers63.9%−7.7%Inventory only1 / +0.44u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.111
1.1111 bookmakers86.5%−3.9%Inventory only1 / +0.11u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.020
1.0201 bookmakers96.0%−2.0%Inventory only1 / +0.02u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Away team · Under 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: two_stage
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.002
1.0021 bookmakers99.0%−0.8%Inventory only1 / +0.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.020
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.030
1.0252 bookmakers96.3%−1.3%Inventory only4 / +0.02u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 0.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.030
1.0301 bookmakers96.1%−1.0%Inventory only4 / +0.03u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 1Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.040
1.0401 bookmakers95.8%−0.3%Inventory only4 / +0.04u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 1.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.100
1.1001 bookmakers89.7%−1.2%Inventory only4 / +0.10u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.125
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.160
1.1432 bookmakers84.4%−3.6%Inventory only4 / +0.14u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 1.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.180
1.1801 bookmakers82.7%−2.2%Inventory only4 / +0.18u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 2Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.200
1.2001 bookmakers80.5%−2.7%Inventory only4 / +0.20u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 2.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.350
1.3501 bookmakers71.7%−2.9%Inventory only4 / +0.35u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.444
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.500
1.4722 bookmakers64.7%−4.8%Inventory only4 / +0.47u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 2.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.600
1.6001 bookmakers60.3%−3.1%Inventory only4 / +0.60u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 3Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.750
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.724
1.7372 bookmakers54.8%−3.7%Inventory only4 / +0.74u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 3.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.000
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.961
1.9812 bookmakers48.1%−4.2%Inventory only4 / +0.98u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 3.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.100
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.260
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.180
2.1803 bookmakers42.9%−6.5%Inventory only4 / +1.18u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 3.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.610
2.6101 bookmakers37.2%−2.7%Inventory only4 / +0.80u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 4Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.230
3.2301 bookmakers30.2%−2.0%Inventory only4 / +0.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 4.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.610
3.6101 bookmakers27.2%−1.7%Inventory only4 / −0.50u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 4.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.500
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.000
3.7502 bookmakers24.7%−7.3%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 4.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.030
5.0301 bookmakers19.8%−0.3%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 7.150
7.1501 bookmakers14.2%+1.6%EV bet4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 5.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 7.670
7.6701 bookmakers13.3%+2.0%EV bet4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 5.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 6.500
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 8.200
7.3502 bookmakers12.5%−8.1%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 5.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 10.890
10.8901 bookmakers9.4%+2.0%EV bet4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 6Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 16.800
16.8001 bookmakers6.0%+1.2%EV bet4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 6.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 17.400
17.4001 bookmakers5.8%+1.1%EV bet4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 6.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 13.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 18.000
15.5002 bookmakers5.6%−13.0%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 6.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 24.800
24.8001 bookmakers4.0%−0.7%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 7Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 40.660
40.6601 bookmakers2.3%−4.7%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 7.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 41.330
41.3301 bookmakers2.3%−4.9%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Over 7.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 26.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 42.000
34.0002 bookmakers2.3%−23.1%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 0.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 19.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 27.000
23.0002 bookmakers3.7%−15.7%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 0.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 14.000
14.0001 bookmakers3.9%−42.7%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 1Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 13.500
13.5001 bookmakers4.2%−38.6%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 1.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 9.000
9.0001 bookmakers10.3%−7.2%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 1.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 6.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 6.800
6.4002 bookmakers15.6%+0.1%EV bet4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 1.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.600
5.6001 bookmakers17.3%−2.6%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 2Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.070
5.0701 bookmakers19.5%−1.0%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 2.25Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.660
3.6601 bookmakers28.3%+3.1%EV bet4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 2.5Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.700
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.980
2.8402 bookmakers35.3%+0.4%EV bet4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 2.75Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.490
2.4901 bookmakers39.7%−1.1%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Go Ahead Eagles – ADO Den HaagGoals · Match total · Under 3Eredivisie · 2026-08-23T10:15:00+00:00
Recipe: blend
Forecast fit: 2026-08-21 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-23 09:15:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.220
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.190
2.2052 bookmakers45.2%−0.3%Inventory only4 / −1.00u
Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

  • Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
  • Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
  • Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
  • This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
  • Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

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