Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

PredictionsPredictionsMonitoringMonitoringPlayer propsPropsFantasyFantasyBenchmarksBenchmarks

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

Reset
All-time unified results
3,061Distinct matches
601,518Observed outcomes
524,995 / 76,523Priced / missing
123,857EV bets3,422 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

‹

August 2026

›

Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun15−3.7%1720 bets16+4.5%1323 bets17−17.3%483 bets18−50.0%204 bets19−29.1%796 bets20+7.0%957 bets21+0.8%678 bets22−6.8%2554 bets23−18.7%1950 bets24−21.2%660 bets25−42.3%448 bets26−16.4%221 bets27+17.7%670 bets28−20.5%957 bets29−16.9%2659 bets30−4.9%2303 bets31−0.1%630 bets

20 Aug 2026

957 EV bets · +67.01u · +7.0% ROI3,345 observations · 3,187 priced · 158 missing · W 479 / L 451 / P 27

All observed outcomesPositive EV onlyCell benchmarks →
Match / cellAverage oddsModel probabilityEstimated EVActual / return
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Over 0.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.286
1.2861 bookmakers82.3%+5.8%EV bet3 / +0.29u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Over 1.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.250
2.2501 bookmakers51.6%+16.2%EV bet3 / +1.25u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Over 2.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 5.000
5.0001 bookmakers25.1%+25.5%EV bet3 / +4.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Over 3.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 10.000
10.0001 bookmakers9.8%−2.1%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Over 4.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 17.000
17.0001 bookmakers3.2%−46.2%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Under 0.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.500
3.5001 bookmakers17.7%−38.0%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Under 1.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.571
1.5711 bookmakers48.4%−24.0%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Under 2.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.143
1.1431 bookmakers74.9%−14.4%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Under 3.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.030
1.0301 bookmakers90.2%−7.1%Inventory only3 / +0.03u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Away team · Under 4.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.005
1.0051 bookmakers96.8%−2.7%Inventory only3 / +0.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 0.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.083
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.100
1.0912 bookmakers93.6%+2.2%EV bet3 / +0.09u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 0.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.090
1.0901 bookmakers93.0%+1.3%EV bet3 / +0.09u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 1UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.120
1.1201 bookmakers92.3%+2.8%EV bet3 / +0.12u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 1.25UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.280
1.2801 bookmakers83.4%+6.2%EV bet3 / +0.28u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 1.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.400
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.450
1.4252 bookmakers76.1%+8.5%EV bet3 / +0.42u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 1.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.520
1.5201 bookmakers72.8%+9.4%EV bet3 / +0.52u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 2UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.730
1.7301 bookmakers68.5%+14.1%EV bet3 / +0.73u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 2.25UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.070
2.0701 bookmakers59.1%+19.7%EV bet3 / +1.07u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 2.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.300
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.400
2.3502 bookmakers52.0%+22.1%EV bet3 / +1.35u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 2.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.710
2.7101 bookmakers46.0%+21.9%EV bet3 / +0.85u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 3UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.560
3.5601 bookmakers38.3%+28.3%EV bet3 / +0.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 3.25UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.490
3.4901 bookmakers33.5%+15.1%EV bet3 / −0.50u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 3.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 4.333
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.600
4.4662 bookmakers29.8%+33.1%EV bet3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 3.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.540
5.5401 bookmakers24.0%+30.5%EV bet3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 4UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 9.000
9.0001 bookmakers17.2%+46.1%EV bet3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 4.25UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 9.800
9.8001 bookmakers15.7%+50.1%EV bet3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 4.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 8.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 11.000
9.5002 bookmakers14.5%+38.1%EV bet3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 4.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 12.450
12.4501 bookmakers10.8%+32.8%EV bet3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 5.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 12.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 29.000
20.5002 bookmakers6.1%+25.6%EV bet3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Over 6.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 70.000
70.0001 bookmakers2.3%+58.4%EV bet3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 0.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 7.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 10.000
8.5002 bookmakers6.4%−45.9%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 0.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 8.580
8.5801 bookmakers7.0%−36.7%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 1UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 7.800
7.8001 bookmakers7.7%−32.9%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 1.25UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.080
4.0801 bookmakers16.6%−29.5%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 1.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.750
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.150
2.9502 bookmakers23.9%−29.5%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 1.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.660
2.6601 bookmakers27.2%−24.4%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 2UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.280
2.2801 bookmakers31.5%−21.4%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 2.25UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.890
1.8901 bookmakers40.9%−20.0%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 2.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.600
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.700
1.6502 bookmakers48.0%−20.8%Inventory only3 / −1.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 2.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.500
1.5001 bookmakers54.0%−16.9%Inventory only3 / −0.50u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 3UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.340
1.3401 bookmakers61.7%−13.5%Inventory only3 / +0.00u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 3.25UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.290
1.2901 bookmakers66.5%−12.7%Inventory only3 / +0.15u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 3.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.200
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.260
1.2302 bookmakers70.2%−13.7%Inventory only3 / +0.23u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 3.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.170
1.1701 bookmakers76.0%−10.2%Inventory only3 / +0.17u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 4UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.100
1.1001 bookmakers82.8%−7.5%Inventory only3 / +0.10u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 4.25UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.090
1.0901 bookmakers84.3%−7.5%Inventory only3 / +0.09u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 4.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.063
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.090
1.0772 bookmakers85.5%−8.0%Inventory only3 / +0.08u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 4.75UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.060
1.0601 bookmakers89.2%−5.2%Inventory only3 / +0.06u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 5.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.015
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.030
1.0222 bookmakers93.9%−4.0%Inventory only3 / +0.02u
Kairat Almaty – RSC AnderlechtGoals · Match total · Under 6.5UEFA Europa League · 2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-20 14:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.010
1.0101 bookmakers97.7%−1.3%Inventory only3 / +0.01u
Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

  • Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
  • Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
  • Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
  • This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
  • Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

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