Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

PredictionsPredictionsMonitoringMonitoringPlayer propsPropsFantasyFantasyBenchmarksBenchmarks

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

Reset
All-time unified results
3,043Distinct matches
596,316Observed outcomes
520,083 / 76,233Priced / missing
123,857EV bets2,456 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

‹

August 2026

›

Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun15−3.7%1720 bets16+4.5%1323 bets17−17.3%483 bets18−50.0%204 bets19−29.1%796 bets20+7.0%957 bets21+0.8%678 bets22−6.8%2554 bets23−18.7%1950 bets24−21.2%660 bets25−42.3%448 bets26−16.4%221 bets27+17.7%670 bets28−20.5%957 bets29−16.9%2659 bets30−4.9%2303 bets31−0.1%630 bets

19 Aug 2026

796 EV bets · −231.97u · −29.1% ROI2,576 observations · 2,474 priced · 102 missing · W 316 / L 460 / P 20

All observed outcomesPositive EV onlyCell benchmarks →
Match / cellAverage oddsModel probabilityEstimated EVActual / return
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesCorners · Match total · Over 8.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.730
1.7301 bookmakers48.0%−16.9%Inventory only10 / +0.73u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesCorners · Match total · Under 8.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.000
2.0001 bookmakers52.0%+3.9%EV bet10 / −1.00u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Over 0.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.130
1.1301 bookmakers88.0%−0.5%Inventory only0 / −1.00u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Over 1.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.530
1.5301 bookmakers62.6%−4.2%Inventory only0 / −1.00u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Over 2.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.700
2.7001 bookmakers35.7%−3.7%Inventory only0 / −1.00u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Over 3.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 5.500
5.5001 bookmakers16.6%−8.8%Inventory only0 / −1.00u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Over 4.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 13.000
13.0001 bookmakers6.4%−16.2%Inventory only0 / −1.00u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Over 5.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 26.000
26.0001 bookmakers2.1%−44.3%Inventory only0 / −1.00u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Under 0.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 6.000
6.0001 bookmakers12.0%−28.2%Inventory only0 / +5.00u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Under 1.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.380
2.3801 bookmakers37.4%−11.1%Inventory only0 / +1.38u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Under 2.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.440
1.4401 bookmakers64.3%−7.4%Inventory only0 / +0.44u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Under 3.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.140
1.1401 bookmakers83.4%−4.9%Inventory only0 / +0.14u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Under 4.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.040
1.0401 bookmakers93.6%−2.7%Inventory only0 / +0.04u
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors – GüemesGoals · Match total · Under 5.5Primera Nacional · 2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 17:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.010
1.0101 bookmakers97.9%−1.2%Inventory only0 / +0.01u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Over 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.444
1.4441 bookmakers80.4%+16.0%EV bet1 / +0.44u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Over 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.000
3.0001 bookmakers48.4%+45.2%EV bet1 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Over 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 7.000
7.0001 bookmakers22.4%+56.6%EV bet1 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Over 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 13.000
13.0001 bookmakers8.3%+7.4%EV bet1 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Over 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 21.000
21.0001 bookmakers2.5%−47.0%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Under 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.625
2.6251 bookmakers19.6%−48.4%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Under 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.364
1.3641 bookmakers51.6%−29.6%Inventory only1 / +0.36u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Under 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.083
1.0831 bookmakers77.6%−15.9%Inventory only1 / +0.08u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Under 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.012
1.0121 bookmakers91.7%−7.2%Inventory only1 / +0.01u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Away team · Under 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.002
1.0021 bookmakers97.5%−2.3%Inventory only1 / +0.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.050
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.060
1.0552 bookmakers96.4%+1.7%EV bet2 / +0.06u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 0.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.070
1.0701 bookmakers96.1%+2.7%EV bet2 / +0.07u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 1UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.080
1.0801 bookmakers95.9%+3.1%EV bet2 / +0.08u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 1.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.180
1.1801 bookmakers89.7%+5.5%EV bet2 / +0.18u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.222
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.280
1.2512 bookmakers84.3%+5.5%EV bet2 / +0.25u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 1.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.330
1.3301 bookmakers82.6%+8.9%EV bet2 / +0.17u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 2UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.410
1.4101 bookmakers80.4%+10.7%EV bet2 / +0.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 2.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.640
1.6401 bookmakers71.5%+15.5%EV bet2 / −0.50u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.800
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.880
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.806
1.8293 bookmakers64.4%+17.7%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 2.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.110
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.040
2.0752 bookmakers59.9%+21.7%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 3UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.530
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.380
2.4552 bookmakers54.3%+25.9%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 3.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.900
2.9001 bookmakers47.5%+33.7%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.750
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.250
3.0002 bookmakers42.3%+26.9%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 3.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.030
4.0301 bookmakers36.5%+42.8%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 4UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.580
5.5801 bookmakers29.4%+52.3%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 4.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 6.090
6.0901 bookmakers26.4%+55.4%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 5.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 6.600
5.8002 bookmakers24.0%+39.3%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 4.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 8.920
8.9201 bookmakers19.1%+66.2%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 14.150
14.1501 bookmakers13.5%+80.5%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 5.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 14.820
14.8201 bookmakers12.7%+82.4%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 5.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 8.500
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 15.500
12.0002 bookmakers11.9%+42.8%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 5.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 21.590
21.5901 bookmakers8.8%+87.9%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 6UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 36.620
36.6201 bookmakers5.6%+97.0%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 6.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 37.310
37.3101 bookmakers5.4%+97.3%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Over 6.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 13.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 38.000
25.5002 bookmakers5.2%+32.5%EV bet2 / −1.00u
ŠK Slovan Bratislava – NK CeljeGoals · Match total · Under 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-19 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 8.500
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 15.000
11.7502 bookmakers3.6%−57.3%Inventory only2 / −1.00u
Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

  • Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
  • Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
  • Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
  • This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
  • Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

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