Unified-model historical results
Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.
From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.
Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.
All-time unified results
EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.
Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI
Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.
18 Aug 2026
204 EV bets · −102.09u · −50.0% ROI718 observations · 650 priced · 68 missing · W 63 / L 136 / P 5
| Match / cell | Average odds | Model probability | Estimated EV | Actual / return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.3641 bookmakers | 72.9% | −0.5%Inventory only | 1 / +0.36u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 2.6251 bookmakers | 37.6% | −1.4%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 6.5001 bookmakers | 14.4% | −6.1%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 11.0001 bookmakers | 4.4% | −51.8%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 21.0001 bookmakers | 1.1% | −77.1%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 3.0001 bookmakers | 27.1% | −18.8%Inventory only | 1 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.4441 bookmakers | 62.4% | −9.8%Inventory only | 1 / +0.44u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.1001 bookmakers | 85.6% | −5.9%Inventory only | 1 / +0.10u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.0201 bookmakers | 95.6% | −2.5%Inventory only | 1 / +0.02u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.0021 bookmakers | 98.9% | −0.9%Inventory only | 1 / +0.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.0382 bookmakers | 95.7% | −0.7%Inventory only | 2 / +0.04u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 0.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.0601 bookmakers | 95.4% | +1.0%EV bet | 2 / +0.06u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 1UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.0701 bookmakers | 95.0% | +1.5%EV bet | 2 / +0.07u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 1.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.1601 bookmakers | 88.1% | +2.1%EV bet | 2 / +0.16u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.2702 bookmakers | 82.2% | +4.4%EV bet | 2 / +0.27u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 1.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.3301 bookmakers | 80.1% | +5.8%EV bet | 2 / +0.17u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 2UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.4001 bookmakers | 77.4% | +6.5%EV bet | 2 / +0.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 2.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.6472 bookmakers | 68.2% | +10.9%EV bet | 2 / −0.50u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.8733 bookmakers | 60.9% | +14.1%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 2.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 2.1252 bookmakers | 56.0% | +16.9%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 3UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 2.5601 bookmakers | 49.7% | +21.1%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 3.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 2.7101 bookmakers | 43.4% | +15.7%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 3.1502 bookmakers | 38.6% | +21.5%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 3.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 3.4301 bookmakers | 32.7% | +11.0%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 4UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 5.5001 bookmakers | 25.5% | +33.1%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 4.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 5.9001 bookmakers | 23.0% | +32.7%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 5.9002 bookmakers | 21.0% | +24.0%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 4.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 8.6001 bookmakers | 16.4% | +38.7%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 10.7201 bookmakers | 11.2% | +17.7%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 5.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 11.2801 bookmakers | 10.5% | +17.8%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 5.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 12.7502 bookmakers | 10.0% | +26.9%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 6.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 27.5002 bookmakers | 4.2% | +14.1%EV bet | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 13.5002 bookmakers | 4.3% | −42.0%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 0.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 10.8501 bookmakers | 4.6% | −46.6%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 1UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 9.9001 bookmakers | 5.0% | −43.9%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 1.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 5.9001 bookmakers | 11.9% | −28.0%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 4.0252 bookmakers | 17.8% | −28.3%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 1.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 3.6501 bookmakers | 19.9% | −24.3%Inventory only | 2 / −0.50u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 2UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 3.2501 bookmakers | 22.6% | −20.8%Inventory only | 2 / +0.00u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 2.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 2.3252 bookmakers | 31.8% | −23.2%Inventory only | 2 / +0.66u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 2.0113 bookmakers | 39.1% | −21.4%Inventory only | 2 / +1.01u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 2.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.7752 bookmakers | 44.0% | −19.5%Inventory only | 2 / +0.77u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 3UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.6201 bookmakers | 50.3% | −14.3%Inventory only | 2 / +0.62u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 3.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.5001 bookmakers | 56.6% | −13.4%Inventory only | 2 / +0.50u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.3972 bookmakers | 61.4% | −14.2%Inventory only | 2 / +0.40u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 3.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.2801 bookmakers | 67.3% | −12.6%Inventory only | 2 / +0.28u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 4UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.1801 bookmakers | 74.5% | −10.0%Inventory only | 2 / +0.18u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 4.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.1601 bookmakers | 77.0% | −9.8%Inventory only | 2 / +0.16u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.1512 bookmakers | 79.0% | −9.0%Inventory only | 2 / +0.15u |
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 4.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
| 1.1001 bookmakers | 83.6% | −7.6%Inventory only | 2 / +0.10u |
Backtest method and coverage
Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.
The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.
- Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
- Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
- Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
- This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
- Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.
Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00