Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

Reset
All-time unified results
3,043Distinct matches
596,300Observed outcomes
520,067 / 76,233Priced / missing
123,857EV bets2,488 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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August 2026

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Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

18 Aug 2026

204 EV bets · −102.09u · −50.0% ROI718 observations · 650 priced · 68 missing · W 63 / L 136 / P 5

Match / cellAverage oddsModel probabilityEstimated EVActual / return
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.364
1.3641 bookmakers72.9%−0.5%Inventory only1 / +0.36u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.625
2.6251 bookmakers37.6%−1.4%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 6.500
6.5001 bookmakers14.4%−6.1%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 11.000
11.0001 bookmakers4.4%−51.8%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Over 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 21.000
21.0001 bookmakers1.1%−77.1%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.000
3.0001 bookmakers27.1%−18.8%Inventory only1 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.444
1.4441 bookmakers62.4%−9.8%Inventory only1 / +0.44u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.100
1.1001 bookmakers85.6%−5.9%Inventory only1 / +0.10u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.020
1.0201 bookmakers95.6%−2.5%Inventory only1 / +0.02u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Away team · Under 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.002
1.0021 bookmakers98.9%−0.9%Inventory only1 / +0.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.015
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.060
1.0382 bookmakers95.7%−0.7%Inventory only2 / +0.04u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 0.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.060
1.0601 bookmakers95.4%+1.0%EV bet2 / +0.06u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 1UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.070
1.0701 bookmakers95.0%+1.5%EV bet2 / +0.07u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 1.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.160
1.1601 bookmakers88.1%+2.1%EV bet2 / +0.16u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.250
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.290
1.2702 bookmakers82.2%+4.4%EV bet2 / +0.27u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 1.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.330
1.3301 bookmakers80.1%+5.8%EV bet2 / +0.17u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 2UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.400
1.4001 bookmakers77.4%+6.5%EV bet2 / +0.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 2.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.640
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.653
1.6472 bookmakers68.2%+10.9%EV bet2 / −0.50u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.800
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.920
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.900
1.8733 bookmakers60.9%+14.1%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 2.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.120
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.130
2.1252 bookmakers56.0%+16.9%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 3UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.560
2.5601 bookmakers49.7%+21.1%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 3.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.710
2.7101 bookmakers43.4%+15.7%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.300
3.1502 bookmakers38.6%+21.5%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 3.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.430
3.4301 bookmakers32.7%+11.0%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 4UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.500
5.5001 bookmakers25.5%+33.1%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 4.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.900
5.9001 bookmakers23.0%+32.7%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 5.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 6.800
5.9002 bookmakers21.0%+24.0%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 4.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 8.600
8.6001 bookmakers16.4%+38.7%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 10.720
10.7201 bookmakers11.2%+17.7%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 5.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 11.280
11.2801 bookmakers10.5%+17.8%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 5.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 8.500
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 17.000
12.7502 bookmakers10.0%+26.9%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Over 6.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 13.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 42.000
27.5002 bookmakers4.2%+14.1%EV bet2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 0.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 12.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 15.000
13.5002 bookmakers4.3%−42.0%Inventory only2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 0.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 10.850
10.8501 bookmakers4.6%−46.6%Inventory only2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 1UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 9.900
9.9001 bookmakers5.0%−43.9%Inventory only2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 1.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 5.900
5.9001 bookmakers11.9%−28.0%Inventory only2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 1.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.750
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.300
4.0252 bookmakers17.8%−28.3%Inventory only2 / −1.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 1.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.650
3.6501 bookmakers19.9%−24.3%Inventory only2 / −0.50u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 2UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.250
3.2501 bookmakers22.6%−20.8%Inventory only2 / +0.00u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 2.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.400
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.250
2.3252 bookmakers31.8%−23.2%Inventory only2 / +0.66u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 2.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.000
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.080
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.952
2.0113 bookmakers39.1%−21.4%Inventory only2 / +1.01u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 2.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.820
  • Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.729
1.7752 bookmakers44.0%−19.5%Inventory only2 / +0.77u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 3UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.620
1.6201 bookmakers50.3%−14.3%Inventory only2 / +0.62u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 3.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.500
1.5001 bookmakers56.6%−13.4%Inventory only2 / +0.50u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 3.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.364
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.430
1.3972 bookmakers61.4%−14.2%Inventory only2 / +0.40u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 3.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.280
1.2801 bookmakers67.3%−12.6%Inventory only2 / +0.28u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 4UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.180
1.1801 bookmakers74.5%−10.0%Inventory only2 / +0.18u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 4.25UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.160
1.1601 bookmakers77.0%−9.8%Inventory only2 / +0.16u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 4.5UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.143
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.160
1.1512 bookmakers79.0%−9.0%Inventory only2 / +0.15u
Fenerbahçe – Olympique LyonnaisGoals · Match total · Under 4.75UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00
Recipe: count
Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00
Forecast decision: 2026-08-18 18:00:00+00:00
  • Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.100
1.1001 bookmakers83.6%−7.6%Inventory only2 / +0.10u
Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

  • Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
  • Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
  • Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
  • This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
  • Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

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