Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

All-time unified results

3,054Distinct matches

599,435Observed outcomes

523,034 / 76,401Priced / missing

123,857EV bets2,991 Pending

−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI

0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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August 2026

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Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun15−3.7%1720 bets 16+4.5%1323 bets 17−17.3%483 bets 18−50.0%204 bets 19−29.1%796 bets 20+7.0%957 bets 21+0.8%678 bets 22−6.8%2554 bets 23−18.7%1950 bets 24−21.2%660 bets 25−42.3%448 bets 26−16.4%221 bets 27+17.7%670 bets 28−20.5%957 bets 29−16.9%2659 bets 30−4.9%2303 bets 31−0.1%630 bets

17 Aug 2026

483 EV bets · −83.43u · −17.3% ROI1,974 observations · 1,810 priced · 164 missing · W 205 / L 264 / P 14

All observed outcomes Positive EV only Cell benchmarks →

Match / cell	Average odds	Model probability	Estimated EV	Actual / return
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCards · Match total · Over 4.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.900	1.9001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCards · Match total · Under 4.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: — Forecast fit: — Forecast decision: — BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.700	1.7001 bookmakers	Unverified outcome unit	—Inventory only	— / —
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Away team · Over 3.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.667	1.6671 bookmakers	59.7%	−0.5%Inventory only	7 / +0.67u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Away team · Over 5.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 3.150	3.1501 bookmakers	24.0%	−24.3%Inventory only	7 / +2.15u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Away team · Under 3.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.100	2.1001 bookmakers	40.3%	−15.4%Inventory only	7 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Away team · Under 5.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.290	1.2901 bookmakers	76.0%	−2.0%Inventory only	7 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Match total · Over 9.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.800 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.780	1.7902 bookmakers	53.6%	−4.0%Inventory only	11 / +0.79u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Match total · Under 9.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.909 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.890	1.8992 bookmakers	46.4%	−11.9%Inventory only	11 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Home team · Over 5.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.833	1.8331 bookmakers	52.1%	−4.6%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Home team · Over 6.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 2.500	2.5001 bookmakers	36.1%	−9.9%Inventory only	4 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Home team · Under 5.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.833	1.8331 bookmakers	47.9%	−12.1%Inventory only	4 / +0.83u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradCorners · Home team · Under 6.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.450	1.4501 bookmakers	63.9%	−7.3%Inventory only	4 / +0.45u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Away team · Over 0.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.444 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.400	1.4222 bookmakers	61.4%	−12.7%Inventory only	1 / +0.42u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Away team · Over 1.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.400	3.4001 bookmakers	24.6%	−16.3%Inventory only	1 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Away team · Over 2.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 10.000	10.0001 bookmakers	7.2%	−28.5%Inventory only	1 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Away team · Over 3.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 26.000	26.0001 bookmakers	1.6%	−58.0%Inventory only	1 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Away team · Under 0.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.625 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 2.600	2.6122 bookmakers	38.6%	+0.9%EV bet	1 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Away team · Under 1.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.300	1.3001 bookmakers	75.4%	−2.0%Inventory only	1 / +0.30u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Away team · Under 2.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.063	1.0631 bookmakers	92.8%	−1.3%Inventory only	1 / +0.06u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Away team · Under 3.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.010	1.0101 bookmakers	98.4%	−0.6%Inventory only	1 / +0.01u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 0.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.050 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.080 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.030	1.0533 bookmakers	92.6%	−2.5%Inventory only	3 / +0.05u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 0.75 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.090	1.0901 bookmakers	91.8%	+0.1%EV bet	3 / +0.09u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 1 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.100	1.1001 bookmakers	90.8%	−0.1%Inventory only	3 / +0.10u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 1.25 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.230	1.2301 bookmakers	81.1%	−0.2%Inventory only	3 / +0.23u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 1.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 1.300 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 1.300 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.360 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 1.286	1.3124 bookmakers	73.3%	−3.9%Inventory only	3 / +0.31u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 1.75 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.430	1.4301 bookmakers	69.5%	−0.6%Inventory only	3 / +0.43u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 2 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.550	1.5501 bookmakers	64.4%	−0.2%Inventory only	3 / +0.55u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 2.25 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 1.810 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 1.769	1.7892 bookmakers	55.1%	−1.2%Inventory only	3 / +0.79u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 2.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 2.000 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.080 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 2.000 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.030	2.0274 bookmakers	48.2%	−2.2%Inventory only	3 / +1.03u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 2.75 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.400 Pinnacle · unknown · unknown: 2.320	2.3602 bookmakers	41.9%	−1.0%Inventory only	3 / +0.68u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 3 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 2.970	2.9701 bookmakers	33.8%	+0.3%EV bet	3 / +0.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 3.25 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.380	3.3801 bookmakers	29.7%	+0.3%EV bet	3 / −0.50u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 3.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.400 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.800 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 3.600	3.6003 bookmakers	26.5%	−4.8%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 3.75 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.850	4.8501 bookmakers	20.8%	+1.0%EV bet	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 4 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 7.180	7.1801 bookmakers	14.3%	+2.4%EV bet	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 4.25 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 7.790	7.7901 bookmakers	13.2%	+2.8%EV bet	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 4.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 7.000 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 8.400 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 7.500	7.6333 bookmakers	12.3%	−6.2%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 4.75 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 11.420	11.4201 bookmakers	8.9%	+2.0%EV bet	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 18.170	18.1701 bookmakers	5.3%	−3.2%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 5.25 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 18.830	18.8301 bookmakers	5.1%	−3.6%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 5.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 15.000 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 19.500	17.2502 bookmakers	4.9%	−15.1%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 5.75 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 28.920	28.9201 bookmakers	3.4%	−2.3%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 6 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 53.250	53.2501 bookmakers	1.8%	−5.0%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 6.25 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 54.120	54.1201 bookmakers	1.8%	−5.1%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Over 6.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 55.000	55.0001 bookmakers	1.7%	−5.1%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Under 0.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 11.000 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 12.000 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 9.000	10.6673 bookmakers	7.4%	−21.0%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Under 0.75 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 9.330	9.3301 bookmakers	8.2%	−21.2%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Under 1 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 8.470	8.4701 bookmakers	9.2%	−18.0%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Under 1.25 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 4.980	4.9801 bookmakers	18.9%	−5.4%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u
FC Universitatea Cluj – UTA AradGoals · Match total · Under 1.5 Romanian Super Liga · 2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00 Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-17 14:30:00+00:00 Bet365 · unknown · unknown: 3.400 BetMGM UK · unknown · unknown: 3.050 Betfair Exchange · unknown · unknown: 3.600 Paddy Power · unknown · unknown: 3.300	3.3374 bookmakers	26.7%	−10.9%Inventory only	3 / −1.00u

Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

Unified-model historical results

August 2026

17 Aug 2026

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