Unified-model historical results
Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.
From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.
Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.
Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.
All-time unified results
3,054Distinct matches
599,435Observed outcomes
523,034 / 76,401Priced / missing
123,857EV bets2,991 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes
EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.
Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI
Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.
15 Aug 2026
1,720 EV bets · −63.49u · −3.7% ROI6,790 observations · 6,282 priced · 508 missing · W 839 / L 833 / P 48
| Match / cell | Average odds | Model probability | Estimated EV | Actual / return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergCorners · Away team · Over 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.8001 bookmakers | 59.2% | +6.5%EV bet | 3 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergCorners · Away team · Over 6.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 3.1001 bookmakers | 26.6% | −17.6%Inventory only | 3 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergCorners · Away team · Under 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.9091 bookmakers | 40.8% | −22.1%Inventory only | 3 / +0.91u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergCorners · Away team · Under 6.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.3001 bookmakers | 73.4% | −4.6%Inventory only | 3 / +0.30u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergCorners · Match total · Over 9.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.7342 bookmakers | 55.8% | −3.2%Inventory only | 8 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergCorners · Match total · Under 9.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.9702 bookmakers | 44.2% | −13.0%Inventory only | 8 / +0.97u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergCorners · Home team · Over 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.7392 bookmakers | 54.9% | −4.5%Inventory only | 5 / +0.74u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergCorners · Home team · Under 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.9802 bookmakers | 45.1% | −10.8%Inventory only | 5 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Over 0.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.1712 bookmakers | 76.2% | −10.8%Inventory only | 4 / +0.17u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Over 1.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.9091 bookmakers | 42.0% | −19.8%Inventory only | 4 / +0.91u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Over 2.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 4.0001 bookmakers | 17.5% | −30.0%Inventory only | 4 / +3.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Over 3.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 10.0001 bookmakers | 5.8% | −42.2%Inventory only | 4 / +9.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Over 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 26.0001 bookmakers | 1.6% | −59.2%Inventory only | 4 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Under 0.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 4.2502 bookmakers | 23.8% | +1.2%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Under 1.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.8001 bookmakers | 58.0% | +4.4%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Under 2.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.2221 bookmakers | 82.5% | +0.8%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Under 3.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0631 bookmakers | 94.2% | +0.2%EV bet | 4 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Away team · Under 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0101 bookmakers | 98.4% | −0.6%Inventory only | 4 / +0.01u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Over 0.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0222 bookmakers | 94.4% | −3.5%Inventory only | 6 / +0.02u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Over 1.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.1832 bookmakers | 78.3% | −7.3%Inventory only | 6 / +0.18u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Over 2.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.6342 bookmakers | 55.1% | −10.1%Inventory only | 6 / +0.63u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Over 3.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.6122 bookmakers | 32.7% | −14.6%Inventory only | 6 / +1.61u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Over 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 4.7673 bookmakers | 16.6% | −20.9%Inventory only | 6 / +3.77u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Over 5.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 9.5002 bookmakers | 7.3% | −30.8%Inventory only | 6 / +8.50u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Over 6.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 21.0001 bookmakers | 2.8% | −41.1%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Under 0.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 13.0002 bookmakers | 5.6% | −27.4%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Under 1.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 4.4172 bookmakers | 21.7% | −4.2%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Under 2.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.1752 bookmakers | 44.9% | −2.3%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Under 3.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.4442 bookmakers | 67.3% | −2.8%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Under 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.1533 bookmakers | 83.4% | −3.8%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Under 5.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0462 bookmakers | 92.7% | −3.0%Inventory only | 6 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Match total · Under 6.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0151 bookmakers | 97.2% | −1.3%Inventory only | 6 / +0.01u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Over 0.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.2632 bookmakers | 76.5% | −3.3%Inventory only | 2 / +0.26u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Over 1.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.2501 bookmakers | 42.5% | −4.3%Inventory only | 2 / +1.25u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Over 2.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 5.5001 bookmakers | 17.9% | −1.7%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Over 3.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 15.0001 bookmakers | 6.0% | −10.7%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Over 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 34.0001 bookmakers | 1.6% | −44.5%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Under 0.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 3.4252 bookmakers | 23.5% | −19.7%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Under 1.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.5711 bookmakers | 57.5% | −9.7%Inventory only | 2 / −1.00u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Under 2.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.1431 bookmakers | 82.1% | −6.1%Inventory only | 2 / +0.14u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Under 3.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0301 bookmakers | 94.0% | −3.1%Inventory only | 2 / +0.03u |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – 1. FC NürnbergGoals · Home team · Under 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.0051 bookmakers | 98.4% | −1.1%Inventory only | 2 / +0.00u |
VfL Osnabrück – 1. FC MagdeburgCorners · Away team · Over 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.8901 bookmakers | 63.3% | +19.6%EV bet | 10 / +0.89u |
VfL Osnabrück – 1. FC MagdeburgCorners · Away team · Under 4.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.7901 bookmakers | 36.7% | −34.3%Inventory only | 10 / −1.00u |
VfL Osnabrück – 1. FC MagdeburgCorners · Match total · Over 7.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.2501 bookmakers | 83.2% | +4.0%EV bet | 13 / +0.25u |
VfL Osnabrück – 1. FC MagdeburgCorners · Match total · Over 102. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.9001 bookmakers | 56.5% | +6.5%EV bet | 13 / +0.90u |
VfL Osnabrück – 1. FC MagdeburgCorners · Match total · Under 7.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 3.4501 bookmakers | 16.8% | −42.0%Inventory only | 13 / −1.00u |
VfL Osnabrück – 1. FC MagdeburgCorners · Match total · Under 102. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.9001 bookmakers | 43.5% | −15.3%Inventory only | 13 / −1.00u |
VfL Osnabrück – 1. FC MagdeburgCorners · Home team · Over 3.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 1.3301 bookmakers | 76.2% | +1.3%EV bet | 3 / −1.00u |
VfL Osnabrück – 1. FC MagdeburgCorners · Home team · Under 3.52. Bundesliga · 2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00Recipe: count Forecast fit: 2026-08-14 22:00:00+00:00 Forecast decision: 2026-08-15 10:00:00+00:00
| 2.9501 bookmakers | 23.8% | −29.6%Inventory only | 3 / +1.95u |
Backtest method and coverage
Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.
The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.
- Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
- Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
- Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
- This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
- Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.
Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00