Unified-model historical results

Historical model results at averaged bookmaker odds, separate from original recorded picks.

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From 15 August 2026 · all retained odds · exact lines and Over/Under evaluated separately. Each outcome uses the average of available bookmaker odds, including single-bookmaker offers.

Reconstructed backtestAvailable matches: 15 Aug 2026 – 18 Oct 2026. These are rebuilt forecasts, separate from original recorded picks.Retained prices include quotes with unknown or post-match capture times. Choose recorded pre-match quotes for the stricter quote cohort.

Forward observations use authentic pre-kickoff forecasts and quotes. They continue the frozen history independently of Monitoring and VIP/Free eligibility.

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All-time unified results
3,054Distinct matches
599,435Observed outcomes
523,034 / 76,401Priced / missing
123,857EV bets2,991 Pending
−7470.40uEV profit · −6.0% ROI
0.1796Brier score · 351,657 binary outcomes

EV bets have positive estimated return at the averaged odds. Every observed outcome stays in the inventory; missing model prices never enter model returns. All priced returns also include zero and negative EV. No odds range or profitable-cell filter is applied.

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August 2026

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Month: 19,213 EV bets · −1893.03u · −9.9% ROI

Historical reconstruction · one unit per exact-line outcome with positive estimated EV. Days use UTC−6, like the original calendar.

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun15−3.7%1720 bets16+4.5%1323 bets17−17.3%483 bets18−50.0%204 bets19−29.1%796 bets20+7.0%957 bets21+0.8%678 bets22−6.8%2554 bets23−18.7%1950 bets24−21.2%660 bets25−42.3%448 bets26−16.4%221 bets27+17.7%670 bets28−20.5%957 bets29−16.9%2659 bets30−4.9%2303 bets31−0.1%630 bets

14 Aug 2026

No observations are available for this date and these filters.

All observed outcomesPositive EV onlyCell benchmarks →
Match / cellAverage oddsModel probabilityEstimated EVActual / return
Backtest method and coverage

Each exact line and direction is one virtual unit. Bookmaker offers are averaged, not counted as independent bets. Integer pushes and quarter-line half wins/losses are settled proportionally. W/L count positive/negative returns; P counts zero returns.

The model logic was selected using earlier results only. The report is historical research, not proof of profitability or a replay of every current live adjustment. Brier scores use half-point binary outcomes only. Overlapping lines and directions are correlated.

  • Forecasts were reconstructed, not saved before the historical matches.
  • Retained prices may have missing or post-match capture times; a separate recorded pre-match quote cohort is available.
  • Result availability in fitting uses kickoff plus three hours as a proxy.
  • This retained replay does not reproduce every live lineup, tempo or division transformation.
  • Unavailable model prices and unverified card units remain explicitly missing.

Historical model: unified-20261021-v5 · Snapshot: history-20261021-v4 · Input cutoff: 2026-10-21T12:56:16+00:00

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