Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

0Free available0VIP available4Recorded Free0Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

4 picks shown with Pinnacle prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

4 matches

07:40Al-FaisalyvAl-KholoodSaudi Pro League0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Betfair Exchangerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9813 Oct, 15:10

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.90
Expected value at recommendation: +4.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 52.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +4.4%.

At recommendation, Betfair Exchange’s overall market record had 45 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.6%EV+4.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair Exchangeresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.7%EV+4.4%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV-8.8%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV-8.8%
13 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV-4.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.77
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV-2.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.3%EV-3.3%
15 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 15:10: under 2.5 at 1.98 with Betfair Exchange. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 16:59. The original pick remains in the results.

Result corrected: Provider full-time score differs from the originally recorded goal result.

08:50Al-KhaleejvAl-FayhaSaudi Pro League1 won / 0 lost · +0.94u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 2+0.94u on one unit

Betfair Exchangerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9413 Oct, 15:10

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%.

At recommendation, Betfair Exchange’s overall market record had 45 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.0%EV+1.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair Exchangeresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.94
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+6.0%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV-7.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV-7.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV-7.3%
14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV-7.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV-3.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV-0.4%
15 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 15:10: under 2.5 at 1.94 with Betfair Exchange. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 21:51. The original pick remains in the results.

10:45NK CeljevOmonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Betfair Exchangerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0613 Oct, 13:25

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.97
Expected value at recommendation: +5.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +5.0%.

At recommendation, Betfair Exchange’s overall market record had 34 settled picksand +1.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+2.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair Exchangeresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.06
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+5.0%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.7%EV-3.7%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.7%EV-3.7%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.7%EV-3.7%
17 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.7%EV-3.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.03
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.7%EV+2.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.7%EV+1.4%
19 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 13:25: under 2.5 at 2.06 with Betfair Exchange. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 21:51. The original pick remains in the results.

10:45Lech PoznańvBayer 04 LeverkusenUEFA Europa League0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 10:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.1%EV+18.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.93
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+14.0%
33 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+3.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+3.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+3.4%
19 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+6.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+9.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.82
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+7.5%
22 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 10:06: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Selected day

Thu, 15 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

Return−2.6%ROI · 160 units staked

Profit−4.24units

W / L76 / 84picks

Avg odds2.09settled picks

Recorded picks1677 awaiting result

All dates

Overall results

5,088 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,895 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 19 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.6%

Profit+132.91 u

W / L2,500 / 2,588

Avg odds2.15

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.