Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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7 Free0 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

7 picks shown with Pinnacle prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

7 matches

09:00FC Corvinul HunedoaravFC VoluntariRomanian Super Liga1 won / 0 lost · +0.85u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 2.5Actual: 5+0.85u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.858 Oct, 11:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.3%EV+0.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.3%EV+0.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.3%EV+0.4%
13 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.94
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.3%EV+5.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+6.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+12.4%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+7.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.74
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+8.7%
17 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: over 2.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 23:51. The original pick remains in the results.

12:00Sepsi OSKvFC Dinamo BucureștiRomanian Super Liga0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 2.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.858 Oct, 11:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +0.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +0.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+6.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+0.5%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+0.5%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+0.5%
15 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.93
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+5.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.67
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.0%EV+6.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.0%EV+17.0%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.0%EV+10.5%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.71
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.0%EV+9.4%
17 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: over 2.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 23:51. The original pick remains in the results.

12:00Pau FCvStade LavalloisLigue 21 won / 0 lost · +1.04u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 2.5Actual: 5+1.04u on one unit

Betfair Exchangerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.048 Oct, 17:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +2.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +2.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betfair Exchangeresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.04
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.0%EV+2.1%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-2.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-7.6%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-7.6%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-7.6%
14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-2.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-0.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.97
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.9%EV-1.6%
14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 17:36: over 2.5 at 2.04 with Betfair Exchange. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 23:51. The original pick remains in the results.

12:30Borussia DortmundvSV Werder BremenBundesliga1 won / 0 lost · +0.99u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 3.5Actual: 4+0.99u on one unit

Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.998 Oct, 23:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.97
Expected value at recommendation: +1.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +1.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.9%EV+1.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.99
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.9%EV+1.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.9%EV+2.9%
20 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.32
No saved recommendation
Model chance45.1%EV+4.7%
29 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance45.1%EV-5.2%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance45.1%EV-5.2%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance45.1%EV-5.2%
19 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance45.1%EV-5.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 23:51: over 3.5 at 1.99 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 01:26. The original pick remains in the results.

12:30AvellinovSampdoriaSerie B1 won / 0 lost · +1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 2.5Actual: 5+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 11:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +2.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +2.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.1%EV+2.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.1%EV+7.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.06
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.1%EV+5.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.6%EV+3.8%
14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV+7.1%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV-4.6%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV-4.6%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV-4.6%
13 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.0%EV+1.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: over 2.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

13:00MálagavEspanyolLaLiga0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 2.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.118 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.82
Expected value at recommendation: +16.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +16.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.2%EV+10.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.2%EV+10.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.2%EV+10.4%
14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.11
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.2%EV+16.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV+15.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV+16.5%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV+10.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.7%EV+12.4%
20 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:51: over 2.5 at 2.11 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

13:15Sporting BragavSportingLiga Portugal Betclic1 won / 0 lost · +1.01u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 2.5Actual: 4+1.01u on one unit

Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.018 Oct, 23:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.98
Expected value at recommendation: +1.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +1.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.01
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.6%EV+1.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.6%EV+1.3%
15 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV-0.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.28
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV+13.1%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV-5.8%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV-5.8%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV-5.8%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.6%EV+9.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 23:51: over 2.5 at 2.01 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Selected day

Fri, 9 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

Return−8.1%ROI · 281 units staked

Profit−22.66units

W / L129 / 152picks

Avg odds2.04settled picks

Recorded picks28125 matches

All dates

Overall results

5,130 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,974 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 18 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.7%

Profit+138.37 u

W / L2,521 / 2,609

Avg odds2.12

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.