Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions Player propsProps BenchmarksBenchmarks

2 Free0 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

2 picks shown with Pinnacle prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

2 matches

07:15Al-QadsiahvAbhaSaudi Pro League1 pick· 0 active

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeIn play

under 3.5

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9114 Oct, 11:03

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +7.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +7.6%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+7.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.9%EV+0.7%
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.9%EV-1.7%
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.9%EV+0.7%
14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.11
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.9%EV+1.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.27
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.9%EV+8.8%
15 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 11:03: under 3.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 03:36. The original pick remains in the results.

12:00GuingampvPau FCLigue 21 pick· 0 active

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeNo longer recommended

under 2.5

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0014 Oct, 22:00

Current odds2.0016 Oct, 07:47

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 50.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.98
Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Current odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance50.6%EV+1.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKCurrentunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.08
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+2.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeCurrentunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.08
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+2.5%
25 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveCurrentunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV-8.9%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetCurrentunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV-8.9%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetCurrentunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV-8.9%
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerCurrentunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV-3.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleCurrentunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Current odds2.03
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+0.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetCurrentunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Current odds1.97
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV-2.9%
14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 22:00: under 2.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 22:05. The original pick remains in the results.

Selected day

Fri, 16 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

No settled results yet. 0 active suggestions across 2 listed matches.

All dates

Overall results

5,417 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (2,881 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 15 Oct 2026.

ROI+4.0%

Profit+214.27 u

W / L2,699 / 2,718

Avg odds2.12

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.