Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

3 Free0 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

3 picks shown with Paddy Power prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

2 matches

12:45

Scotlandv

SloveniaUEFA Nations League0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Corners · Slovenia total

Open match →FreeLost

under 3.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.906 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy PowerOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+6.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+1.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+7.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+7.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+1.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 11:45: under 3.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

18:30Chicago FirevVancouver WhitecapsMLS0 won / 2 lost · −2.00u · 2 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeLost

over 12.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation5.506 Oct, 17:30

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 12.5
At recommendation4.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy Powerresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 12.5
At recommendation5.50
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds4.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance23.2%EV+4.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds4.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance23.2%EV-2.5%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:30: over 12.5 at 5.50 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Chicago Fire total

Open match →FreeLost

over 3.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.656 Oct, 17:30

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 3.5
At recommendation1.65
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.3%EV-11.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.35
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.3%EV-14.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.37
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.3%EV-13.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.3%EV-8.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.3%EV-5.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:30: over 3.5 at 1.65 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Selected day

Tue, 6 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

Return−5.5%ROI · 105 units staked

Profit−5.75units

W / L43 / 62picks

Avg odds2.51settled picks

Recorded picks1083 awaiting result

All dates

Overall results

5,094 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,974 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 18 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.5%

Profit+125.58 u

W / L2,497 / 2,597

Avg odds2.12

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.