Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

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7 Free0 VIP0 Free Active0 VIP Active

7 picks shown with Paddy Power prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

4 matches

10:00

Kosovov

AustriaUEFA Nations League1 won / 0 lost · +1.10u · 1 pick

Corners · Austria total

Open match →FreeWon

over 4.5Actual: 5+1.10u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 09:08

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-4.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-4.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-8.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-4.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV+2.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.6%EV-7.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 09:08: over 4.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

12:45

Portugalv

NorwayUEFA Nations League3 won / 1 lost · +2.20u · 4 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 3.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.504 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy Powerresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.50
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.32
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV+15.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV+13.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.4%EV+15.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 3.5 at 2.50 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 9.5Actual: 10+1.10u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 9.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.7%EV-32.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.7%EV-26.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.7%EV-26.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.7%EV-32.0%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.7%EV-26.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.7%EV-26.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.7%EV-24.0%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 9.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Portugal total

Open match →FreeWon

over 5.5Actual: 6+1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.004 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy Powerresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 5.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance30.6%EV-43.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance30.6%EV-43.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance30.6%EV-47.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance30.6%EV-46.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance30.6%EV-43.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance30.6%EV-47.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance30.6%EV-41.2%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 5.5 at 2.00 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Norway total

Open match →FreeWon

over 3.5Actual: 4+1.10u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV-2.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+0.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+3.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV-2.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+0.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+15.1%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

12:45

Greecev

GermanyUEFA Nations League0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Corners · Germany total

Open match →FreeLost

over 5.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy Powerresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 5.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance46.0%EV-15.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance46.0%EV-15.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance46.0%EV-28.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance46.0%EV-21.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance46.0%EV-15.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance46.0%EV-31.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance46.0%EV-12.6%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 5.5 at 2.10 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

12:45

Irelandv

IsraelUEFA Nations League0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Corners · Israel total

Open match →FreeLost

over 3.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.004 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-19.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-24.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-19.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-19.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-18.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.7%EV-15.1%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Selected day

Sun, 4 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

Return−4.4%ROI · 147 units staked

Profit−6.47units

W / L65 / 82picks

Avg odds2.20settled picks

Recorded picks1514 awaiting result

All dates

Overall results

5,123 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,974 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 18 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.8%

Profit+141.37 u

W / L2,519 / 2,604

Avg odds2.12

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.